RUSSIA ECONOMICS

WANT IN-COUNTRY EXPERTISE TO HELP NAVIGATE AN EMERGING MARKET?

Country Analysts

Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Chief Economist, Sberbank CIB
Alexander Kudrin
Former Head of Research, Sberbank CIB

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Decent rate of industrial growth in October amid high inflation and decelerating credit growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 24 Nov 2021
Industrial performance was good enough in October. Rosstat reported that industrial production was up y-o-y by 7.1% in October and 5.0% in 10M21. Seasonally and calendar adjusted by Rosstat m-o-m growth was positive (0.8%). The mining sector grew y-o-y by 10.9% and 3.7% over the same periods, whi...

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Russia’s 3Q21 GDP growth is in line with expectations, while elevated inflation boosts nominal GDP numbers
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 18 Nov 2021
Rosstat published its flash estimate of the 3Q21 y-o-y GDP growth (4.3%), which appeared in line with expectations and didn’t challenge the view that in 2021 as a whole Russia’s GDP will grow by around 4.2%. Rosstat provided no more details on the 3Q21 GDP. No breakdown of growth by sectors, no s...

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Russian macro: how Minfin’s actions hamper the effectiveness of CBR policy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 15 Nov 2021
Russian federal budget revenues soared this year and exceeded the initial annual plan by 8.9% in 10M21. Oil-and-gas revenues were 21.8% higher than expected, while the rest of the revenues were 2.1% above the planned annual amount. In 10M21, the government spent 85% of budgeted expenditure, which...

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Russia is back as a twin-surplus economy in 2021
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 12 Nov 2021
The Finance Ministry reported that in 10M21 federal budget revenues exceeded the formally approved annual budget plan by 8.9%. Oil-and-gas revenues exceeded the annual plan by 21.8%, while the non-oil-and-gas revenues were higher than the annual target by 2.8%. Total revenues reached R20.4 trln w...

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Russian macro: mortgages to remain in demand despite higher key rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - Report 05 Nov 2021
Consumer credit and mortgages, which grew fast during the pandemic, remain among the pillars of Russia’s economic growth. In 2Q20 the government offered subsidies for mortgages so that households were able to borrow at a fixed rate (6.5%), implying that banks provided mortgage loans below the mar...

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Inflation up to 8.13% y-o-y in October despite CBR series of rate hikes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 03 Nov 2021
Rosstat reported that inflation in October continued to accelerate – the m-o-m figure was at 1.11%, while inflation y-o-y accelerated to 8.13%. Inflation YTD reached 6.49%. Inflation w-o-w remained steady and high, showing no clear signs of deceleration (in the seven days ending on November 1, it...

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​Economic growth remained strong in September and 3Q21, though the 4Q21 looks more challenging amid rising incidence rate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 02 Nov 2021
The Rosttat reported that real incomes in Russia grew y-o-y by 4.4% and 7.6% in 9M21 and 3Q21. In 3Q21 real incomes were higher than in 2Q21 by 4.5% (not seasonally adjusted). Similar numbers for real disposable incomes were 4.1%, 8.1%, and 4.6%. Both real incomes and real disposable incomes are ...

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Industrial growth remains strong in September
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 28 Oct 2021 1 response
Rosstat reported that industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.7%, 6.2%, and 6.8% in 9M21, 3Q21, and September alone. Seasonally and calendar-adjusted industrial output grew by 1.7% m-o-m.Mining was up by 3.0%, 9.4%, and 9.5% y-o-y over the same periods. As oil and gas extraction combined was up by 0.9%...

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OFZ: The yield curve has become inverted – the first time since 2017
RUSSIA ECONOMICS - In Brief 26 Oct 2021 1 response
Friday’s CBR decision to hike the key rate by 75 bps (to 7.5%), accompanied by a hawkish statement from the regulator, became a negative surprise for the bond market. Despite the acceleration of inflation, which reached 7.8% as of October 20, the market was expecting a more moderate action, but t...

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