RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russian macro: the economy at a crossroad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2026
In earlier reports, we pointed out that this year’s economic data look a bit puzzling, mainly because of ongoing revisions to historical figures. These updates shift short-term growth patterns, as the adjusted m-o-m numbers from last year heavily influence this year’s y-o-y results. Monthly busin...
Economic growth seemingly accelerated in March, but was accompanied by statistical quirks
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026
Yesterday, Rosstat reported that the aggregate output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, declined y-o-y by 0.7% in 1Q26. However, in March alone it was up by 2.2% and seemingly pointed to a significant improvement in the economic sit...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026
Last Friday, the CBR cut the key rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. The decision was widely expected as inflation continued to decelerate in recent weeks, pulling inflation expectations down. Simultaneously, the regulator reiterated the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 (0.5-1.5%) and offered a narrower rang...
Industrial production trends remain unclear, domestic demand weakens
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2026
As Rosstat continues to intrigue observers, we remain puzzled about Russia’s economic trends, particularly in the industry. Earlier this year, we mentioned that, due to Rosstat’s internal regulations, the statistical agency decided to publish industrial production statistics for 2023 at fixed pri...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2026
The OFZ market remained under pressure in the past two weeks. Some acceleration on inflation (to 0.17-0.19% w-o-w at the very end of March and early April) made investors cautious regarding potential reaction from the CBR. Additionally, the regulator's top management acknowledged that they contin...
Economic trends don’t look great, while statistics still puzzles
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026
According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimate, the Russian nominal GDP reached R213.5 trln (about $2.55 trln) and grew by 1.0%. On April 10, the statistical agency will publish GDP sectoral breakdown by production activity and by end-use, including quarterly data. So far, the 4Q25 numbers are unava...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2026
Volatility on the FX market increased dramatically in the past two weeks (10-day volatility jumped from 6-8% month ago to over 20% as of now). On the back of strong oil prices, investors anticipated Minfin to start purchasing FX on the open market in April, which could cause its deficit as export...
Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzling
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2026
Rosstat reported that in 2M26, industrial production fell by 0.8% y-o-y. However, the chart, presented by Rosstat just below this announcement, shows a clear y-o-y growth of about 4% at least. Indeed, y-o-y industrial growth numbers based on the officially published m-o-m statistics would give us...
Russian macro: Rising oil prices will help the budget but won't boost the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2026
As global markets are still enjoying various kinds of teeter-totter moves—mainly driven by regular war escalation/de-escalation rumors—fundamental economic factors remain either largely intact or are evolving much more gradually. As it is still widely believed that the Russian budget gets the bul...