RUSSIA ECONOMICS
Analyst
Evgeny Gavrilenkov
Former Investment Bank Chief EconomistDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2026
The FX market remains stable despite external turbulence. Some fluctuations were observed during the extended national holiday period earlier this month, when the USD/RUB moved to 80 level amid poor liquidity. However, when all the major players were back after holidays, the ruble appreciated aga...
The 2025 vicious cycle: unimpressive economic growth trims budget revenues, and the latter drags growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2026
It is now widely expected that the 2025 GDP growth figure will be about 1.0%, pointing to a dramatic deceleration of economic growth last year. At the same time, inflation unexpectedly fell to 5.59% – the lowest number in the past five years. The CBR succeeded in bringing inflation down through a...
Russian macro: The economy at the crossroads: uncertainty ahead once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Dec 2025
This year is shaping up to deliver some unexpected macroeconomic results, with growth slowing sharply and GDP on track for around 1.0%, compared to 4.3% and 4.1% in the previous year and in 2023. Those stronger figures were largely the result of Rosstat’s substantial revisions to earlier data. Wh...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2025
The Russian FX market has seen moderate volatility over the past two weeks. The CBR’s decision to lift limits on outgoing hard currency transfers by individuals from Russia and “friendly” countries has had little effect on the exchange rate. Still, easing capital controls could help the ruble wea...
Budget revenues under pressure as the ruble remains too strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025
The Ministry of Finance announced that in 11M25, total federal budget revenues hit R32.9 trln, up 0.7% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues dropped 22.4% to just R8.0 trln, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3% to R24.9 trln. The government had initially forecast R10.9 trln in O&G revenues for the year but no...
Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025
Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...
Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025
The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...
Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025
Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...
Industrial growth unexpectedly accelerates in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025
Rosstat reported that in the aftermath of unimpressive performance in the previous months (0.7% y-o-y in 9M25) industrial production grew by 3.1% y-o-y in October and 3.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 10M25, the industry expanded by 1.0% y-o-y as a result. The numbers still don’t look i...