SOUTH AFRICA
Analyst
Iraj Abedian
Former Member, President’s Panel of Economic AdvisorsDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Strained but standing: South Africa’s fiscal challenges and reform opportunities
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Jul 2025
The OECD, in June, released its Economic Survey of South Africa, and it provides a sobering view of the country’s fiscal landscape. With gross government debt expected to remain above 75% of GDP in the near term (higher than the typical G20 emerging market economy), and significant revenue short...
South Africa’s external position remains relatively sustainable
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jun 2025
Data released by the South African Reserve Bank shows that, during the first quarter of 2025, the deficit of South Africa’s current account narrowed slightly, to R35.6 billion, down from R39.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit held steady at 0.5% over both...
Agricultural gains prevent total economic stagnation in Q1-2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Jun 2025
Real quarterly GDP increased marginally by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025. This followed an expansion of 0.4% q/q during the fourth quarter of 2024 and a contraction of 0.3% q/q in the third quarter of 2024. The latest GDP print showcases that the South African economy indeed started the year ...
South Africa confronts fiscal strain and global uncertainty in early 2025
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 22 May 2025
• South African growth: Continuing from 2023’s muted growth, the South African economy recorded another lackluster growth rate in 2024. The annual growth also came in lower than the Treasury forecast of 1.3% at the beginning of the year. The insipid growth was registered despite a marked improvem...
South Africa’s Budget 2025 uncertainty continues
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Apr 2025
The turbulence surrounding South Africa’s 2025 Budget has shown no signs of easing. Initially postponed from its traditional February slot to March 12—marking an unprecedented delay—the Budget has continued to face intense political debate, particularly over the proposed value-added tax (VAT) inc...
SA’s political economy erupts: The politics of Fiscal Framework 2025 rattle the Government of National Unity, and President Trump piles on tariffs and turmoil
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Apr 2025
April 3, 2025 may turn out to be a memorable day in SA’s annual calendar in 2025. On the one hand, the domestic tensions within the Government of National Unity (GNU) erupted into the open. This has been building since February 19, when the scheduled Budget Speech 2025 had to be postponed due to...
An expected pause in interest rate cuts by the SA Reserve Bank
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Mar 2025
The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced that it is leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged following three consecutive cuts. We had largely expected this decision as we noted following the January decision. The repurchase (repo) rate, hence, remains...
South Africa’s Budget 2025 finally presented after a GNU stalemate—yet it remains contested
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Mar 2025
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana delivered Budget 2025 yesterday, which was also the first budget under the relatively new Government of National Unity (GNU). The significant shift in South Africa’s political administration has been most evident in the events leading up to this year’s budget ann...
South Africa’s current account deficit eases as trade surplus grows in 2024
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2025
Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account narrowed from R55.6 billion in the third quarter to R31.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus narrowed to a deficit of 0.4% in the fourth qua...