TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
On the political agenda and today’s MTP
TURKEY · Report · 06 Sep 2026
Our autumn coverage in politics start with the review of the agenda, which promises to be turbulent and chock full of surprises. Messrs. Ozel and Yavas will be eliminated from the presidential race before 2027, the politics author thinks, while progress in the (Kurdish) Peace Process may trigger ...
August inflation: more of the same
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2026
Consumer prices rose by 1.8% m/m in August, slightly below median expectations, with the annual CPI inflation edging down slightly to 31.5% from 31.8% in July. Domestic PPI increased by 2.6% m/m in August, raising the 12-month PPI inflation rate slightly to just under 30% (27.9%) from 27.8% in Ju...
Net Exports Drive Q2 Growth
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2026 · 1 response
The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% y/y and 1.1% q/q in the second quarter of the year, slightly down and considerably up from the previous quarter, respectively. As usual, we focus on the quarterly (sequential) growth rates here to better gauge the cyclical state of the economy. The strong Q2 grow...
In a bit of a hurry
TURKEY · Report · 25 Aug 2026
The CBRT lowered the money market rates (TLREF) to around 37% from around 40%-- more abruptly than we thought. After the dovish signals sent by Governor Fatih Karahan at the recent Inflation Report meeting, this was almost certain to happen, but we thought a more gradual move --to test market sen...
A macro update (or, enjoy it while it lasts!)
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2026 · 1 response
With our weekly on holiday, we thought a brief update on the recent data releases could prove useful. The economy is looking more stagflationary: activity and employment have both stalled, yet inflation has hardly budged from 30%+ levels. Disgruntlement in the business community is growing, to...
Inflation forecast up, but easing hopes alive
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2026
The CBRT released its third Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank once again revised its end-2026 inflation forecast upward, to 28% from 26%, while keeping its year-end interim target unchanged at 24%. Its forecasts for 2027 and 2028, which also serve as interim targets, were left unchange...
Peace Process: A Happy Ending of Sorts
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Aug 2026
Global Source Partners TURKEY has publicly declared a recess for the month of August, but the Turkish parliament stubbornly denies this fundamental right. Instead, after sitting on its fat derriere for most of the winter/spring session, it passed a very useful piece of legislation before ITS rece...
Mecca Pact: Face-saver or game-changer?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Aug 2026
First, my apologies for posting this Market Brief at this Godawful hour, but my humble dwelling in Istanbul turned into a mini-heat sink frying my brains during the day. The heat wave is a nice segway to jump to the Holy City of Mecca, Saudi Arabia, which is also suffering from it and has recentl...
No respite for the CBRT in the July data
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2026
Consumer price rose by 1.8%, m/m, in July, broadly in line with expectations, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing slightly to 31.8%, from 32.1% in June. Producer price inflation came in at 1.5%, with the 12-month PPI inflation rate also falling modestly to 27.8%, from 28.1% in the previous mon...