TURKEY

TURKEY - In Brief 16 Jan 2019 2 responses

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today. Recall that this is the third consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised the policy rate by 625 bps on September 13th (see chart...

TURKEY - In Brief 15 Jan 2019 1 response

The ebb and tide of the bromance between presidents Erdogan and Trump ought to be subject of inquiry for Hollywood screen writers and psychologists, but as a humble political commentator, I’m compelled to focus only on the very boring angle of Syria, which is one of the most pressing points of te...

TURKEY - Report 13 Jan 2019

We are deviating from the weekly format today -- having sent our brief politics update on Friday (Good Tidings, Citizen, January 11, 2019) -- and provide a quick rundown of recent data releases, and share some thoughts on this coming Wednesday’s rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC...

TURKEY - In Brief 10 Jan 2019

Dear All, I’ll be out of town for the weekend to launch my third book, thus skipping my weekly contribution to the knowledge pool of the world. I thought it would be appropriate to comment on municipal elections, the winning of which moved to the center of AKP policymaking and new threats by Fore...

TURKEY - Report 06 Jan 2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWinning local elections has become the sole priority for AKP, around which all policy decisions, including those concerning foreign affairs shall revolve between now and March 31st. There are very few polls, but plenty of commentary from pollsters. Trying to correlate those as im...

TURKEY - In Brief 03 Jan 2019

Consumer prices dropped by 0.4% in December, broadly in line with consensus forecasts, ending the year at 20.3%, y/y, further down from 21.6% in November and a peak of 25.2% in October, which, incidentally, corresponds to the worst yearend performance since 2002, when we were in an entirely diffe...

TURKEY - In Brief 30 Dec 2018

I thought the best New Year’s gift to our audience will be to leave them alone during the festive season, because most political news from Turkey is bad news. Alas, the tradition continues and I must end the year with the prediction of the “first crisis in 2019”.As much as the word crisis is over...

TURKEY - Report 28 Dec 2018

Executive SummaryWe have decided to revive an old tradition of ours in this final report of the year, that of looking at the economics of the full year, (mostly) in pictures -- hoping that you’ll find it useful.Needless to say, 2018 was a very tough year especially for Turkey, as an emerging mark...

TURKEY - In Brief 20 Dec 2018 1 response

The agenda is moving at a speed faster than light for me to write the Big Picture piece I’ve been yearning for. Anyway, there is no Big Picture left anymore, Trump has smashed everything into bits and pieces. His sudden and unannounced decision to pull US troops out of Syria, while still subject ...