TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
New party, old business
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jul 2026
Ozgur Ozel and 91 comrades finally resigned from CHP, forming New Party the same day. More CHP deputies are expected to join New Party in the coming days, and the party has ample staff fired from CHP by Kilicdaroglu to complete the national organization requirements. Yet, these are mere technical...
Demand slowdown to the rescue
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jul 2026
As expected, the CBRT/MPC left the policy (weekly-repo) and O/N rates unchanged today. There were a few relatively minor changes/updates to the statement, all delivered in the first paragraph, which are also sort of self-evident, in our view.
Ozel finally launches New Party
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jul 2026
It is stating the obvious, but I need to write this Market Brief to put a footnote to Turkish political history. At an emotional and defiant speech at the parliamentary caucus, Ozel finally heralded that he is founding “a” or “the New” Party. Depending on the source 82 or 85 CHP MPs attended the ...
No rest for the wary in the summer
TURKEY · Report · 19 Jul 2026
As summer heat fries brains and saps all physical energy, our valiant politicians are sweating hard to make use of the dormant summer months. During the week, three Turkish administration sources for the first time ever expressed determination to resolve the S-400 barrier to the lifting of CAA...
CAATSA OUT, CHP 2.0 on deck
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2026 · 1 response
Sunday’s weekly Tracker was supposed to be the victory lap of Politics Author (I), because two of his major predictions are on the verge of materialization. I expect Ankara to announce shipping the dreaded S-400 anti-missile systems to a third country to be yet named. This should in theory elimin...
A brief econ update
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jul 2026
Industrial production shrank sharply in May, but that was largely driven by the “other transport equipment” category., while Turkstat’s seasonally-adjusted data pointed to limited improvement in the pace of core inflation, if at all. The cash budget recovered in June, as expected, with the def...
Trump – Erdogan summit: A clean break, but not necessarily a break-through
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Jul 2026
The moment Trump’s Air Force 1 landed in Ankara, where he was personally welcomed by Erdogan, Trump began heaping praise on the latter, which continued before and after the summit press comments. It is certain that the troubled Turko-American relationship made a clean break with its past, with re...
Chaotic politics, stagnant economy
TURKEY · Forecast · 05 Jul 2026
The macro context has become palpably more stagflationary over the past few months, with economic activity stagnating but inflation remaining elevated -- and we expect things to stay this way for the foreseeable future. But this should be no threat to the proverbial “carry trade” -- the only thin...
June inflation: a summer respite of sorts
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jul 2026
Consumer prices rose by 1.0%, m/m, in June, in line with the median market expectation. As a result, annual consumer price inflation eased slightly to 32.1%, from 32.6% in May. Monthly domestic PPI inflation was 1.8% in June, with the 12-month PPI rate thus declining also slightly to 28.1% from 2...