Country Analysts

Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global Research

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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​Growth 2020: A Pyrrhic Victory of sorts
TURKEY - Report 01 Mar 2021
The Turkish economy grew by a somewhat lower than expected 5.9%, y/y, and 1.7%, q/q, in the final quarter of 2020. For the year as a whole, GDP hence grew by 1.8% in 2020, making Turkey one of the two G-20 countries, next to China, that registered positive growth in a devastating, pandemic-hit ye...

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Beware the Ides of March
TURKEY - Report 28 Feb 2021
February started poorly for Mr. Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance, turning into a rout by the end of the month. The administration couldn’t deliver any tangible progress on the economy or the COVID-19 epidemic fronts, with bigger defeats occurring in the political arena, where to quote one savvy s...

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​Berat Albayrak is not the only problem TL is facing
TURKEY - In Brief 24 Feb 2021
This morning CBRT was forced to raise required reserve ratios by 200 basis points across the deposit maturity spectrum to defend the TL.As I write these lines, around Istanbul time noon, dollar/TL did not respond to the additional monetary tightening step, which may be because of rumors surfacing...

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Words vs. deeds
TURKEY - Report 21 Feb 2021 1 response
At home, President Erdogan ordered gradual and locale-by-locale re-opening of the Turkish economy in March, which is an extremely risky gamble in the face of 7.5K new cases per day and still not enough vaccines at hand. He is counting on 105 million doses of some type of vaccine to become availab...

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​MPC: No change, as expected
TURKEY - Report 18 Feb 2021
At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged at 17% (simple), as expected. Regarding the content of the statement, as far as we can see, two changes are worth highlighting from the previous one. One is the indirect or de facto acknowledgmen...

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Playing for time?
TURKEY - Report 14 Feb 2021
There are no new developments on the S-400s front, which we predict will soon become the hottest issue in Turkish politics. President Erdogan is desperate to have an audience with Biden to market at home, but the White House is not biting. In the coming days, we expect more antics from the Erdoga...

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​“The Grand Bargaining” officially started yesterday
TURKEY - In Brief 10 Feb 2021
We have been priming our audience for the “Day of Reckoning” between Biden Administration and Erdogan Regime. The presence of S-400s on Turkish soil, a NATO member, was unacceptable to NATO and US. Unless Ankara took a step back, Biden is likely to tighten existing CAATSA sanctions month by month...

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Focusing on the essentials
TURKEY - Report 07 Feb 2021 1 response
We urge our readers to keep their eyes firmly focused on the essentials, amidst the feel-good mood encompassing the EMs and Turkey. The nation is nowhere close to reaching herd immunity via vaccination, as new strains are running rampant in the population. Each day with lockdowns and shop clos...

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​Call for new Constitution: DoA
TURKEY - In Brief 03 Feb 2021 1 response
Before I comment on President Erdogan’s call for a brand-new constitution, I’d like to update our audience about more immediate and possibly market-relevant events. Currently there is a stalemate between the government and Bosporus University students, who are protesting the appointment of a pres...

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