TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Disinflation amidst political turmoil
TURKEY · Report · 06 Jul 2025
The final battle between Erdogan and CHP began Saturday, when three more CHP mayors were detained. Erdogan holds all the cards against a defiant Ozgur Ozel in this winner-takes-all wrestling match, which will soon witness Ankara mayor Mansur Yavas and Ozel himself being eliminated from politics, ...
Better headline, thanks to food prices
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2025
Consumer prices rose by a slightly less than expected 1.4%, m/m, in June, with the annual CPI-inflation rate easing modestly to 35.1%, from 35.4% in May. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 2.5% increase in the month, with the 12-month rate, in contrast, rising further to 24.5%, from 23.1% in...
Erdogan – Ozel feud: A temporary reprieve
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2025 · 1 response
Contrary to expectations of a majority of experts, the court postponed its ruling on the CHP convention fraud case to 8 September which evoked new thinking about potential outcomes and timing. Is Erdogan making a peace offer to Ozel, or is this just a tactical pause? Spoiler alert, it is the latt...
A historic week in Turkish politics
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response
It is cliché, but this is going to be a truly historic week in Turkish politics. On Monday (June 30), an Ankara court will hear arguments from plaintiffs and defendants on whether there was fraud in CHP’s next-to-last grand convention, when Ozgur Ozel replaced Kemal Kilicdaroglu. In bad-case s...
Too many tipping points
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jun 2025 · 2 responses
Turkey and the entire region are at a tipping point. As regards the latter, Trump’s decision to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities opened up several alternative universes, in some of which the world may be struck with an oil shock reminiscent of the 1970s, or a regional war, where Turkey may be force...
MPC: Not much new or unexpected
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Jun 2025
The CBRT/MPC maintained the policy rate (one-week repo auction rate) as well as the O/N lending and borrowing rates at 46%, 49% and 44.5%, respectively, as expected. The content of the statement was little changed as well (link here and here to the new and old statements, respectively). The CBRT ...
Our hot scorchy summer gets scorchier
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2025 · 1 response
Unlike the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the Iran-Israel clash poses existential threats to the Turkish economy and domestic policy, the politics author opines. He constructs 4 endgame scenarios and analyses their impact on President Erdogan’s policies. At this stage of the War Games, needless to ...
Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025
Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...
A pre-Eid macro recap
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jun 2025
We provide a quick overview of recent macro releases as we enter the Eid al-Adha holiday, which will last from this Friday through Monday. Although we’ve already talked about much of this stuff in our weeklies and briefs, a quick recap would not hurt, we thought. A most notable aspect of first...