TURKEY

TURKEY - Forecast 10 May 2019 1 response

Growth may have sequentially moved to moderately positive territory in Q1, after sharp contractions in the previous two quarters, thanks to substantial fiscal spending and a surge in state bank lending. But this relative pick-up is entirely transient, we think, as the reality on the ground, funda...

TURKEY - In Brief 07 May 2019 2 responses

High Election Council (HEC) annulled Istanbul mayoral vote by a 7-4 decision, opening the way for re-election on 23 June. Only mayor’s office will be on the ballot, with borough and Istanbul municipal assembly results now finally certified. Mayor-elect (CHP) Ekrem Imamoglu was “defrocked” at once...

TURKEY - Report 05 May 2019

Despite a near-consensus local view on High Election Council (HEC) ruling to annul Istanbul elections, we steadfastly stood by our scenario of President Erdogan conceding it to mayor-elect Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP), primarily in the absence of his personal involvement in the bitter media battle be...

TURKEY - Report 03 May 2019

In April, consumer prices rose by 1.7%, m/m, notably lower than the market consensus of around 2.3% (and our forecast of just over 2%), taking the 12-month CPI inflation down to 19.5% from 19.7% in March. But domestic-PPI inflation showed a strong monthly increase of 3%, on the back of a weaker l...

TURKEY - In Brief 02 May 2019

Turkish politics is getting more complicated by the minute, which is reducing visibility and raising risk premiums. To say the last thing first, regardless of the High Election Council(HEC) ruling on Istanbul elections, I expect this state of affairs to continue through summer months. Apropos Ist...

TURKEY - In Brief 30 Apr 2019 1 response

The CBRT released the year's second Inflation Report today. The 2019 year-end CPI-inflation forecast was kept at 14.6% (midpoint of 12.1%-17.1% band), so was the 2020 year-end forecast -- at 8.2% (midpoint of 5.1%-11.3% band). As usual, the Bank sees inflation slowing to the official target of 5%...

TURKEY - Report 28 Apr 2019 1 response

There is now sufficiently heavy news flow to take rumors of Davutoglu and/or Babacan forming new parties seriously. There are other disgruntled groups in AKP, too, which is forcing Erdogan into indecisiveness on several policy areas. One of these is the fate of the alliance with MHP, the other wh...

TURKEY - In Brief 25 Apr 2019 2 responses

In line with expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today (see chart). In the statement, the Bank’s assessment on the economic outlook was almost unchanged compared to the previous one, but the MPC unexpectedly eased its languag...

TURKEY - In Brief 24 Apr 2019 1 response

The message of this Market Brief can be summarized in 2 sentences. The verdict on Istanbul elections will lag to next week, with no change in my prediction that with 60-70% odds Erdogan will concede defeat. There are several fractures in AKP, while the mobbing of CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu her...