TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Some good, some not-so-good news
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2025
Monthly consumer price inflation surprised to the downside in November, coming in at around 0.9%, m/m, compared with a consensus forecast of around 1.3% (including ours). The 12-month CPI inflation thus declined notably to 31.1%, from 32.9% in October. Producer price inflation was also subdued in...
Q3 growth: surprisingly strong
TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2025
The Turkish economy expanded by 1.1%, q/q, and 3.7%, y/y, in the third quarter of the year, with the quarter-on-quarter (sequential) growth rate exceeding forecasts quite visibly, including our expectation of positive yet anemic growth in the quarter. What is more, all demand engines were ramped ...
Rate cut and peace hopes
TURKEY · Report · 30 Nov 2025
By the urging of MHP leader Bahceli, a three-member delegation from the Peace Commission (PC) visited former PKK leader Ocalan in Imrali Island. Neither the delegation, nor the Commission, issued a statement on the exchange, but DEM Party parliamentary deputy whip Mrs Gulistan Kocyigit gave a len...
IMF says a tighter stance is called for
TURKEY · Report · 23 Nov 2025
We provide a very quick rundown of last week’s econ data releases and share a few thoughts on the concluding statement of the recent IMF Article IV consultation mission. Our politics author will share his contribution in the next day or two. In a nutshell, consumer confidence is holding up, em...
Too much political news to digest
TURKEY · Report · 16 Nov 2025
The politics author is under a news bombardment, all interrelated, which will take a week or two to fully digest and to reflect to his current predictions. The week started with the 4K pages long indictment of Ekrem Imamoglu, which, most notably, included a request by the prosecutors to the Attor...
Stranger things
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2025 · 2 responses
President Erdogan is marshalling his resources in the judiciary to open a new front in his showdown with CHP. The immunities of 12 CHP heavyweights, including chairman Ozer may be lifted. Meanwhile, shortly after the European Court of Human Rights ordered Turkey to release Selahaddin Demirtas, Ba...
2025 was lost, again, see you in 2026
TURKEY · Report · 07 Nov 2025
The CBRT released the fourth and final Inflation Report of the year and held its final briefing of the year. As expected, the Bank kept its medium-term (interim) targets for 2025, 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 24%, 16%, and 9%, respectively, as in the August report. Also as expected, the Bank revise...
Better than expected, worse than it should be
TURKEY · Report · 03 Nov 2025
Consumer prices increased by a somewhat lower than expected 2.6%, m/m, in October, with the annual CPI inflation rate easing slightly to 32.9%, from 33.3% in September. Producer prices rose by 1.6%, m/m, as 12-month PPI inflation edged up modestly to 27%, from 26.6% a month earlier. The declin...
A quantum of quietude
TURKEY · Report · 02 Nov 2025 · 1 response
With no major developments in two market-relevant issues that the politics author follows, namely the assault on CHP and corporate raids, he starts with the topic, which is on the lips of every Turkish pundit. He writes about new tensions surfacing between governing partners with a distinct lack ...