TURKEY
Analysts
Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global ResearchDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Tough and eerie times
TURKEY · Report · 27 Apr 2025
The 6.2 Richter scale tremor that shook Istanbul but caused very minor damage is a stark reminder that we are sitting on a time bomb. There is consensus among seismologists that Istanbul is due for a 7.2-7.4 quake “sometime in the future”. Of course, the question is when. On exact timing, experts...
Bahceli scenarios, CBRT reserves
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2025 · 1 response
Political upheaval in Turkey is in full swing, with strong indications that President Erdogan has not given up on his objective of appointing trustees to Istanbul Municipality and CHP. The surprise is MHP leader Bahceli’s public objections to Erdogan’s plans. In the past, such public rebukes by B...
MPC does the right thing, difficult road ahead
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2025
At its meeting today, the MPC/CBRT raised the policy rate by 350 basis points to 46%, compared to the consensus expectations of no change. While not ruling out a hike, we had also thought that a pause was the more likely outcome. Along with the policy rate, the MPC increased the O/N lending rate ...
CBRT’s baptism by fire
TURKEY · Report · 13 Apr 2025
President Erdogan received a delegation from pro-Kurdish Party DEM after 13 years, where reportedly PKK’s disarmament process was discussed. A tad bit more speculatively, DEM Party also laid out its 13 demands to participate in a new constitution. PKK and Syrian Kurds could start disarming for re...
Shape of things to come
TURKEY · Report · 06 Apr 2025
The politics section consists of a single essay, which attempts to answer how the current political upheaval will progress. It is relatively easy to foresee the near future, with sporadic mass protests and Erdogan trying to manage them by tactical retreats, to be reversed with sudden attacks on C...
Decent print, but brace for bumps ahead
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2025
Consumer prices rose by a less than expected 2.5%, m/m, in March (versus consensus forecasts of around 2.9%) with the annual CPI-inflation rate falling by a full percentage point to 38.1%, from 39.1% in February. Monthly Domestic-PPI inflation posted a 1.9% increase in the month, lowering the 12-...
Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025
As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...
Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025
In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...
Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response
We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...