Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global Research


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Recent Country Insights

Macro thoughts: take two
TURKEY · Forecast · 26 Mar 2023

We take stock of the political landscape, update our thoughts on the macroeconomic outlook for this year, and take a quick glance at the next. The pressures in the currency market continue unabated, as attested to by myriad interventions and controls, but the likelihood of a pre-election ‘curr...

Notes from Bilge Yilmaz breakfast
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023 · 1 response

On Tuesday, I and 6 of my economist/columnist colleagues were invited to breakfast by Bilge Yılmaz, head of economic policy at IYIP. I wanted to share my impressions from the “on-the-record” part of the conversation. The “off-the-record” part was largely anecdotes and conversation about politicia...

MPC stays on hold
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Mar 2023

We are happy to report that there is almost nothing to report from today’s CBRT/MPC meeting. The Committee kept the policy rate unchanged at 8.5%, in line with our expectation, versus a more divided set of views in the analyst community (link here). The Bank kept the sentence on the policy outloo...

Big blows to Erdogan, a “thin” one for Kilicdaroglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Mar 2023 · 4 responses

BAD PUN WARNING: “İnce” is the Turkish word for “thin”, which also happens to be the surname of former CHP member and presidential candidate Mr. Muharrem Ince. Get it? Turkey’s competing political alliances; the governing Republican and main opposition Nation; are facing hurdles in their sweat-so...

Dangerous liaisons, dripping reserves
TURKEY · Report · 19 Mar 2023

With Kilicdaroglu widening his lead in the polls, and his Nation Alliance having started inching up in the parliamentary race, Turkey’s timid pro-opposition pundits are now openly voicing the threat of Erdogan stealing the election. The first essay by the politics author addresses this question, ...

Kilicdaroglu has wind in wings
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Your beloved Politics Author a.k.a. Atilla Yesilada is still convalescing from gastric surgery, which is the reason for his absence from our Weekly Report. Since my work hours are still quite restricted, I shall instead analyze the developments after Kilicdaroglu’s nomination briefly, inviting ou...

A dull and short weekly, for a change...
TURKEY · Report · 12 Mar 2023

Our politics author, who is in convalescence but doing well, plans an update on the political scene in the next 24-48 hours. In his absence -- and with elections now almost certainly set for May 14, we report the latest state of affairs in the polls, no matter how rudimentary the polls might be. ...

Deux Ex Machina for Nation Alliance, Final Battle for Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2023 · 6 responses

It has been a very eventful day for Turkey, the nomination of Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the joint presidential candidate of the reunited Nation Alliance (NA) being only one. Earlier in the day, Saudi Arabia deposited $5 bn with CBRT, somewhat reducing the likelihood of a currency shock before the ele...

Turkey’s other quake
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2023

Coming on the heels of a devastating earthquake, IYIP’s abrupt departure from the main opposition grouping Nation Alliance, added a new layer of uncertainty to the outcome of presidential and parliamentary elections. IYIP leader Aksener’s motivations for the 11th hour withdrawal remain obscure, b...

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