Country Analysts

Murat Ucer
Former Advisor, Economy Ministry and Central Bank
Atilla Yesilada
Former Director, Egebank Global Research

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Growth composition changes in Q3
TURKEY - Report 30 Nov 2021
Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.

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A quick data preview
TURKEY - Report 29 Nov 2021
The week is packed with important data releases. In this post, we briefly comment on two of the upcoming releases: Q3 NIA/GDP data, which is due tomorrow (Tuesday) and November inflation data, due Friday. We also say a few words on the October trade data, which was released this morning.

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This time is different
TURKEY - Report 28 Nov 2021
This is our second stab at forecasting Turkey’s near-term political and economic future under President Erdogan’s “new economic model” (henceforth, NEM). There is still a dense fog of uncertainty surrounding the modus operandi of the NEM, how the opposition and public will react to it; and of cou...

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​Social unrest springs up amidst talk of Emergency Law
TURKEY - In Brief 25 Nov 2021 1 response
The massive depreciation and volatility of TL seem to have caused new supply bottlenecks in the economy, as well as triggering a steady flow of price hikes. Turks seem to have finally gotten tired of the high cost of living, with first wild-cat protests springing up Tuesday night. Slightly larger...

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A first take on an unprecedented experiment
TURKEY - Report 21 Nov 2021 2 responses
We address three FAQs on the current market turmoil. Take this as a first, but relatively comprehensive take at a quickly evolving situation. The questions are: Why is Ankara doing this? Where do we go from here? How is this different from the 2018 Pastor episode?

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Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead
TURKEY - In Brief 18 Nov 2021 2 responses
The Monetary Policy Committee defied the ongoing pressures on the TL, and cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 15% (simple), broadly in line with expectations, including ours. The statement ends with the following cryptic sentence: "The Committee expects that the transito...

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​Mid-week update: Cracks surface in Republic Alliance, Kilicdaroglu promises mutual forgiveness
TURKEY - In Brief 17 Nov 2021 2 responses
As the Turkish Lira heads for Hades, the percolating political debate might have something to do with at least corporates buying more FX. I shall share my personal views on the exchange rate, but politics, too is heading for a four-car-pile up on the highway, which takes precedent. I must explain...

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Turkey Covid Watch - November 15, 2021
TURKEY - Report 15 Nov 2021
Cases fluctuated between 23K-30K during the past two weeks, with the overall picture about unchanged since mid-September. Turkey has not witnessed the kind of increase seen in Northern Europe in recent weeks, but we expect this to change once winter weather sets in. Please note that we are put...

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Between hope and despair
TURKEY - Report 14 Nov 2021 2 responses
The politics author unveils his base-case scenario for domestic politics for next year, urged by members of our audience during numerous meetings over the past week. This scenario entails Erdogan’s health slipping further; ‘early-early’ elections won by the opposition that culminate in a new ...

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