TURKEY

TURKEY - Report 30 Nov 2021

Economic activity expanded by 7.4%, y/y, in Q3, down from (a heavily base effect-driven) 22% in Q2, while in calendar- and seasonally-adjusted terms, GDP growth quickened to 2.7%, q/q, from 1.5% (revised up from 0.9%) in Q2.

TURKEY - Report 29 Nov 2021

The week is packed with important data releases. In this post, we briefly comment on two of the upcoming releases: Q3 NIA/GDP data, which is due tomorrow (Tuesday) and November inflation data, due Friday. We also say a few words on the October trade data, which was released this morning.

TURKEY - Report 28 Nov 2021

This is our second stab at forecasting Turkey’s near-term political and economic future under President Erdogan’s “new economic model” (henceforth, NEM). There is still a dense fog of uncertainty surrounding the modus operandi of the NEM, how the opposition and public will react to it; and of cou...

TURKEY - In Brief 25 Nov 2021 1 response

The massive depreciation and volatility of TL seem to have caused new supply bottlenecks in the economy, as well as triggering a steady flow of price hikes. Turks seem to have finally gotten tired of the high cost of living, with first wild-cat protests springing up Tuesday night. Slightly larger...

TURKEY - Report 21 Nov 2021 2 responses

We address three FAQs on the current market turmoil. Take this as a first, but relatively comprehensive take at a quickly evolving situation. The questions are: Why is Ankara doing this? Where do we go from here? How is this different from the 2018 Pastor episode?

TURKEY - In Brief 18 Nov 2021 2 responses

The Monetary Policy Committee defied the ongoing pressures on the TL, and cut the policy rate (weekly repo) by another 100 bps today to 15% (simple), broadly in line with expectations, including ours. The statement ends with the following cryptic sentence: "The Committee expects that the transito...

TURKEY - In Brief 17 Nov 2021 2 responses

As the Turkish Lira heads for Hades, the percolating political debate might have something to do with at least corporates buying more FX. I shall share my personal views on the exchange rate, but politics, too is heading for a four-car-pile up on the highway, which takes precedent. I must explain...

TURKEY - Report 15 Nov 2021

Cases fluctuated between 23K-30K during the past two weeks, with the overall picture about unchanged since mid-September. Turkey has not witnessed the kind of increase seen in Northern Europe in recent weeks, but we expect this to change once winter weather sets in. Please note that we are put...

TURKEY - Report 14 Nov 2021 2 responses

The politics author unveils his base-case scenario for domestic politics for next year, urged by members of our audience during numerous meetings over the past week. This scenario entails Erdogan’s health slipping further; ‘early-early’ elections won by the opposition that culminate in a new ...