Country Analysts

Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-Ukraine
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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Election fever, with Zelenskiy ahead; Hryvnia strong
UKRAINE - Report 13 Mar 2019 1 response
Election madness reigns in Ukraine, with nearly every day bringing a new shocking headline. The Constitutional Court has dropped the “illicit enrichment” provision; a defense procurements scandal has blown up; a decree raising natural gas rates has been rescinded -- and more. Against this wild...

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Polls bring wake-up call, but constitution includes NATO/EU aspirations
UKRAINE - Report 13 Feb 2019
Recent polls that showed comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy leading in the presidential race shocked everyone. Ukrainian voters seem to be sending a message to the powers that be: maybe we’d be better off with a comic than with “business as usual.” How serious respondents are in plumping for a man who ...

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Breaking News: Comedian Zelenskiy Takes the Lead in Presidential Race
UKRAINE - In Brief 31 Jan 2019
It’s a shock. Hype around Zelenskiy exceeded any expectations. Three reputable sociological agencies (funded by USAID) reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy took the lead in presidential race. It looks like a surreal show but… we will not have a chance to wake up in some other reality. My impression ...

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A sustainable recovery that elections could upend
UKRAINE - Forecast 18 Jan 2019
Ukraine’s economy was clearly experiencing a healthy recovery in 2018. GDP sped up to +3.2% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in 2017. Inflation slowed to +9.8% ytd from +13.7%. The hryvnia remained largely stable, losing a negligible 2.2% on average through the year, and even strengthening in the last days of...

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Comedian Zelenskiy to run for presidency
UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Jan 2019 2 responses
On the New Year night comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced his decision to run for presidency in real. He spoke on TV channel 1+1 which belongs to oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy at the time when President Petro Poroshenko was making his traditional New Year speech for Ukrainians. This move was arran...

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An attack, new money, and a strangely strong Hryvnia
UKRAINE - Report 17 Dec 2018
The IMF Executive Board has added Ukraine to its agenda for a December 18th meeting. Since the government has done all of its homework, expectations are positive. The only uncertainty is the size of the next tranche. The EU has already wired €500 million under its new Macro Financial Assistance p...

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Autocephaly of Ukrainian Church
UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Dec 2018
Yesterday, on December 15, gathering of Ukrainian clerics established independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church and elected a 39-year-old Metropolitan Epifaniy as the leader of the new church. That was a historical event, see for more details “Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might es...

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The NBU keeps policy rate unchanged at 18%
UKRAINE - In Brief 14 Dec 2018
On Dec 13, the NBU Board decided to leave policy rate unchanged at 18.0%. The Board ignored Kerch Strait crisis and treated easily still strong inflation (+1.4% m/m or 10% y/y) sine the large part of November CPI growth was driven by a 23.5% gas tariffs’ increase. Positive signals from the IMF (t...

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Martial law enacted
UKRAINE - In Brief 27 Nov 2018
Yesterday parliament enacted martial law for 10 regions for 30 days starting from November 28. MPs harshly reacted to the Presidents’ proposal to enact martial law for the whole territory and for 60 days, suspecting that Petro Poroshenko might use military regime for his political needs. Consensu...

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