Country Analysts

Dmytro Boyarchuk
Executive Director, CASE-Ukraine
Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Former Advisor, State Property Fund

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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A sustainable recovery that elections could upend
UKRAINE - Forecast 18 Jan 2019
Ukraine’s economy was clearly experiencing a healthy recovery in 2018. GDP sped up to +3.2% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in 2017. Inflation slowed to +9.8% ytd from +13.7%. The hryvnia remained largely stable, losing a negligible 2.2% on average through the year, and even strengthening in the last days of...

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Comedian Zelenskiy to run for presidency
UKRAINE - In Brief 02 Jan 2019 2 responses
On the New Year night comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced his decision to run for presidency in real. He spoke on TV channel 1+1 which belongs to oligarch Igor Kolomoyskiy at the time when President Petro Poroshenko was making his traditional New Year speech for Ukrainians. This move was arran...

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An attack, new money, and a strangely strong Hryvnia
UKRAINE - Report 17 Dec 2018
Executive SummaryThe IMF Executive Board has added Ukraine to its agenda for a December 18th meeting. Since the government has done all of its homework, expectations are positive. The only uncertainty is the size of the next tranche. The EU has already wired €500 million under its new Macro Finan...

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Autocephaly of Ukrainian Church
UKRAINE - In Brief 16 Dec 2018
Yesterday, on December 15, gathering of Ukrainian clerics established independent Ukrainian Orthodox Church and elected a 39-year-old Metropolitan Epifaniy as the leader of the new church. That was a historical event, see for more details “Ukrainian church to receive Independence: Russia might es...

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The NBU keeps policy rate unchanged at 18%
UKRAINE - In Brief 14 Dec 2018
On Dec 13, the NBU Board decided to leave policy rate unchanged at 18.0%. The Board ignored Kerch Strait crisis and treated easily still strong inflation (+1.4% m/m or 10% y/y) sine the large part of November CPI growth was driven by a 23.5% gas tariffs’ increase. Positive signals from the IMF (t...

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Martial law enacted
UKRAINE - In Brief 27 Nov 2018
Yesterday parliament enacted martial law for 10 regions for 30 days starting from November 28. MPs harshly reacted to the Presidents’ proposal to enact martial law for the whole territory and for 60 days, suspecting that Petro Poroshenko might use military regime for his political needs. Consensu...

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Russia attacks Ukrainian naval ships: President calls for martial law
UKRAINE - In Brief 26 Nov 2018
Military scenario that we considered in our September report (“IMF arrives, as election prospects turn murky”, 11 Sep 2018) started unfolding in quite unexpected manner. Media reported that Russians attacked Ukrainian naval ships in the Sea of Azov (reportedly three naval vessels have been captur...

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Budget 2019 approved: Expect the IMF wire
UKRAINE - In Brief 23 Nov 2018
In 6:01 AM Kyiv time the parliament approved spending plan 2019. The authorities were in rush (probably under pressure of some deadline) and spent the whole night juggling with spending numbers. Eventually they have approved budget with the key figures – deficit, general revenues and spending – p...

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Cash, just in time for elections
UKRAINE - Report 13 Nov 2018
The situation in Ukraine has been intense in recent weeks. Residential gas prices have finally been raised by 23.5%, and the IMF immediately announced a staff-level agreement on a new 14-month Standby arrangement—a credit line worth up to $3.9 billion. This positive signal gave the green light fo...