Esteban Fernández Medrano
Former Economic Project Advisor


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Recent Country Insights

Falling inflation on the back of FX strength?
URUGUAY · Forecast · 24 Mar 2023

In February, CPI inflation continued declining, to 7.6%y/y, while Industrial production´s 12-month accumulated growth rate fell to 3.0% y/y. As might have been expected, the BCU decided at its most recent COPOM meeting not to raise the reference interest rate any further, keeping it at the histor...

Lateralizing unemployment, despite economic slow-down
URUGUAY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2023

December unemployment data came out at 7.9%, roughly speaking constant compared with 7.8% in November and the same as the 2022 average. This only modest rise happened despite the current economic slowdown, observed in most activity indices and the monetary tightening implemented by the BCU, which...

The BCU equilibrium between activity, inflation and interest rates
URUGUAY · Report · 17 Jan 2023

We review in this report the latest activity and inflation indicators that determine the BCU interest rate policy in order to get a sense of what to expect from the next COPOM meeting, to be held on February 15, 2023. These indicators reaffirm our perspective that both inflation and growth are de...

Senate approves in general the Social Security System Reform
URUGUAY · In Brief · 28 Dec 2022

In the early hours of today, the Senate approved in general terms the “common pension system bill”, i.e. the social security reform that rises the minimum retirement age from 60 to 65 and represents one of president Luis Lavalle Pou’s (LLP) politically costly, but strategic reform projects. Even ...

BCU interest rate cuts around the corner?
URUGUAY · Report · 27 Dec 2022

Recent declining inflation and activity indicators suggest that the BCU monetary tightening might be coming to an end. Contrary to the last Monetary Policy Committee on November the 15th, where the monetary authorities announced another 50bps hike of the reference rate to 11.25%, we would not be ...

November Producer Price deflation suggests further CPI deceleration
URUGUAY · Report · 30 Nov 2022

Following softer food and energy prices and a somewhat stronger local FX rate, the recently published November Wholesale Price Index registered deflation of -3.5% m/m, reinforcing the October reading of -5.8% m/m. The resulting -0.9% y/y rate is the lowest annual inflation rate since 2017 and a s...

Uruguay confirmed innovative Green Bond issuance and debt swap
URUGUAY · Report · 21 Oct 2022

On October 20, the government confirmed the issuance of an innovative 12-year global dollar-denominated “green-bond”, i.e., a Sovereign Sustainability-Linked Bond (SSLB), indexed to climate change indicators, whose final cash flow depends on whether Uruguay meets certain environmental objectives ...

Webinar replay: Uruguay - Swimming against the regional political current
URUGUAY · Report · 21 Oct 2022

Visit the calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar, "Uruguay - Swimming against the regional political current" and get insight into how the country stands apart from the rest of Latin America with a macro review of Uruguay. The webinar features Esteban Fernández Medrano discussing the U...

Slide Presentation: Uruguay - Swimming against the regional political current
URUGUAY · Report · 20 Oct 2022

Access the pdf file of the presentation from the GlobalSource Partners webinar "Uruguay: Swimming against the regional political current". Esteban Fernández Medrano discussed the country's outlook as a market economy in an environment of left-leaning governments in Latin America.

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