Country Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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No more disinflation
VENEZUELA - Report 14 Aug 2019
Disinflation ended. The rebound in monthly inflation we expected for August came in July as stronger public spending propped up consumption and the surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market affected prices and expectations. We revised up our July inflation estimate to 32 percent fro...

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Negotiations, sanctions and worries
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Aug 2019
Respecting the secrecy imposed by Norway, government and opposition representatives have been negotiating in total confidentiality. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry's communiqué dated 2 August 2019 suggested there had been progress but agreements on critical issues were still pending. It emphasized...

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Disinflation: a pyrrhic victory
VENEZUELA - Report 08 Jul 2019
Disinflation is being driven by a sharp decline in consumption. Companies protect their cash flow by adjusting product lines and prices, generating volatility and lengthening the disinflation phase begun in February. We are seeing food price increases being followed by decreases one or two week...

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Challenges ahead
VENEZUELA - Report 01 Jul 2019
Government-opposition talks continue, a sign that all sides prefer a negotiated solution. The ongoing stalemate is catastrophic, and there are no other alternatives in sight to solve the crisis. Both parties have incentives to negotiate and are being pushed to do so by their respective internatio...

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Disinflate at any cost!
VENEZUELA - Report 17 Jun 2019
We revised down our inflation estimate for May to 36 percent (from 49 percent), very close to April (35 percent). In our view, weak consumption largely offset the effect of faster depreciation of the bolivar (51 percent in May vs. 21 percent in April). Cumulative inflation for January-May 2019 is...

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Enter Norway
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Jun 2019
Government and opposition delegations met in Oslo on 27-28 May 2019 in a new attempt to find a solution to the crisis, this time with the Norwegian government as mediator. The story repeats itself: negotiation appears on the scene after an episode in which neither party could impose itself on the...

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The central bank’s statistical shock
VENEZUELA - Report 31 May 2019
The BCV published an extensive set of macroeconomic data on May 28, 2019, after 40 months of pause. The collapse of economic activity and hyperinflation thus become a fact officially accepted by the government. The explanation of BCV’s action is elusive. According to some media, it reflects Ch...

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2019 Outlook: Suppose Maduro survives
VENEZUELA - Forecast 16 May 2019
With the Maduro regime so shaky, to anchor and focus our forecast, we assume regime survival through 2019 and project this year alone. In our next forecast report, we’ll present 2020-2021 forecasts under alternative regime scenarios. The Maduro regime wants to revive private industry and attac...

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Inflation heads back to 50% m-o-m and more
VENEZUELA - Report 15 May 2019
We revised down our April inflation estimate to 35 percent from 45 percent in our previous report. The price of the dollar in the parallel market rose by 21 percent, lower than our expected 42 percent, and consumption was weaker than expected for longer than expected. Accumulated inflation for Ja...

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