VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Economic blockade instead of invasion?
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2025
The seizure of the sanctioned tanker Skipper heralds the possibility of a military-backed economic blockade aimed at achieving regime change in Venezuela through economic suffocation rather than military intervention. According to various sources, the Skipper was carrying 1.1 million barrels o...
Turning point or tightening?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Dec 2025
Venezuela is entering a new cycle of high macroeconomic uncertainty, caught between increasingly tight sanctions and narrowing room for policy maneuver. This report projects economic performance for 2025–2027 under the assumption that the current sanctions regime will remain in place, while recog...
Venezuela: Between Pressure and Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Dec 2025
So far, the Trump administration has built a propaganda—or psyops—apparatus that raises pressure on Caracas without risking open military action. It follows the logic of Latin American soap operas: each episode ends on a cliffhanger. The question remains: what does it hope to achieve? The narr...
USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response
We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...
Who knows? Gauging the risk of U.S. intervention in Venezuela
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Nov 2025
In the United States, different political camps seem to be converging on one key point: that Maduro’s ouster is part of the broader fight against drug trafficking and could justify military intervention. Although the U.S. troop buildup in the Caribbean has not disrupted cohesion within the Ven...
Game changer?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Oct 2025
María Corina Machado will receive the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize in December. Although her nomination was known since last year and her track record fits the appropriate profile, the news was a general surprise, triggering three interconnected dynamics: Machado's challenge to maximize the impact ...
Inflation forecast revised up
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Oct 2025
We revise up our projections for 2025–2026, reflecting the renewed spiral of inflation and devaluation. The gap between export revenue—limited and with a bearish bias—and a still-strong demand for foreign exchange further weakens the BCV’s ability to defend the bolivar. Since mid-September, the c...
External shock, internal fragility
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Oct 2025
Venezuela’s economy is moving into dangerous territory: falling oil prices and a tougher U.S. foreign policy are fueling uncertainty and eroding the government’s ability to stabilize just as the depreciation–inflation spiral is gathering force. Chevron’s return to Venezuela (under the conditio...
The game goes on
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2025
Tensions between the Trump administration and the Venezuelan government remain in fragile equilibrium, with each side trying to force the other to break it. The U.S. military deployment in the Caribbean persists, but the pressure is now focused on narratives, demoralizing and isolating Maduro, an...