Country Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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2019-2020 Outlook: Disorderly default
VENEZUELA - Forecast 27 Dec 2018 1 response
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In our 2019–2020 central scenario, Venezuela’s economy remains in a deep hole and the external deficit opens so wide that something has to give, though we don’t know what that will be. Venezuela is already going through a disorderly default on its external debt, even if so far i...

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Weakened “de facto” president in power starting in January 2019
VENEZUELA - Report 19 Dec 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYJanuary 10 of next year, the day Maduro begins what he considers his second presidential term, will also mark the day that many of his citizens and the rest of the world will see him as now an officially illegitimate president, one who stayed in power through an undemocratic, ill...

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Inflation closes at 2.2 million percent in 2018
VENEZUELA - Report 13 Dec 2018
We adjusted down our August-November 2018 inflation series reflecting new data available. As a result, our inflation forecast for December goes down to 198.7 percent % and the 2018 year-on-year rate closes at 2.2 million percent for 2018. This annual forecast is significantly lower than the proje...

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Walking the tightrope
VENEZUELA - Report 26 Nov 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARYNot only did the Colombian guerrilla penetration of the Orinoco Mining Belt and its attack against a column of Venezuelan troops inside the Venezuelan border last November 4 cast light on what a tough time Maduro is having controlling the mining region and Venezuela’s borders, it...

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Taking off again
VENEZUELA - Report 11 Nov 2018
Hyperinflation took a break in October, in line with what we anticipated would happen after the September shock. We revised down our October estimate to 208%, from 224% in our previous report. The monthly inflation rate slowed significantly in October from 232 percent in September but, neverthele...

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Toxic gold
VENEZUELA - In Brief 06 Nov 2018
Toxic gold President Trump's 1 November 2018 Executive Order (EO) hits Venezuelan gold, a sprawling business for the ruling elites and the main route used to circumvent the August 2017 sanctions. Fear of sanctions will slow the formal gold business in Venezuela, eventually leading to paralysis in...

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The Maduro Plan, two months later
VENEZUELA - Report 24 Oct 2018
Executive Summary Two months after Maduro’s wayward speech introducing his so-called “Recovery, Growth, and Prosperity Program”, we have a clearer idea of the government’s playbook and objectives. We are equally clear on the fact that said plan is bad, and its implementation will be worse. Maduro...

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Feeling the shock
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Oct 2018
Our September 2018 inflation estimate is 231 percent, close to the August record of 236 percent. Accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year rose to 125,748 percent and the September annual rate to 569,082 percent. For October we project a slight slowdown to 224 percent. Inflation...

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International actors will be key
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Oct 2018
With the Venezuelan crisis spilling across its borders, pressure on the Maduro regime is coming from all directions: sanctions, formal diplomatic actions, critical reports from multilateral agencies, and tough rhetoric from the United States. Venezuela was high on the list of concerns of the usua...