Country Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

In The News


Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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The regime escalates conflict after the Bachelet report
VENEZUELA - Report 21 Mar 2019
Venezuela’s massive blackout is a sign of the serious deterioration of public services and the deepening humanitarian crisis. Maduro intensifies repression. Regime change becomes more urgent but the time horizon seems to lengthen. Allied countries, including the U.S., abandoned the "credible t...

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Disinflation and depression
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Mar 2019
At the time this report was ready for distribution on Thursday, March 7, a blackout paralyzed Venezuela and is still ongoing. We don’t know yet the extent of the damage, when the supply of electricity will stabilize, and what the new normal will be. It’s too early to assess the damage. The bla...

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Maduro hangs on, but time isn’t on his side
VENEZUELA - Report 08 Mar 2019
The opposition lost some momentum after a month on the offensive when, on February 23, the Maduro regime used irregular armed groups and formal security forces to block aid shipments from coming in through Colombia and Brazil. With this move, the regime showed that it has no scruples in deploying...

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Guaidó's appointees
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 Mar 2019
Guaidó is setting the scene for implementation of Plan País, the interim government’s stabilization program. Protecting Venezuelan assets abroad and securing heavy upfront funding are top priorities and his appointments are steps towards those goals. First, on February 13 the National Assembly ap...

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Relentless hyperinflation
VENEZUELA - Report 16 Feb 2019
Our monthly inflation estimate for January 2019 rises to 225 percent, exceeding our 200 percent forecast. This mainly reflects the impact of the bolivar’s persistent depreciation in the Dicom segment since November 2018 and the sharp rise in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since Ja...

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Severe damage
VENEZUELA - Report 13 Feb 2019 2 responses
The 28 January 2019 sanctions put the Maduro government in dire straits. According to our calculations, forex earnings will fall by at least $700 million this month and are unlikely to recover. Pdvsa proved being unable to avoid the resounding fall in oil output so far. It was taken by surpri...

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Change of government hinges on the military
VENEZUELA - Report 29 Jan 2019 1 response
Recent moves by Venezuela’s opposition and its international backers may lead to a political transition in the short or medium term. But the Maduro regime might once again muddle through by stalling enough to weaken the opposition’s unity and popularity. It’s still too soon to tell whether regime...

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Venezuela Conference Call: A turning point in the crisis?
VENEZUELA - Report 28 Jan 2019
Events are unfolding quickly as the international community recognizes an opposition leader as the head of an interim government in Venezuela. Will this power shift be enough to pressure a regime change, and how could it unfold? What would be the impact on the country’s economy and markets in the...

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Pressure on Maduro mounts
VENEZUELA - In Brief 24 Jan 2019 1 response
Escalating pressures on Maduro, Juan Guaidó, president of the National Assembly, was symbolically sworn in to "assume the powers of the Executive" as "interim president” before huge crowds in Caracas and other cities on January 23. The demonstration convened that same day by the government was a ...

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