Country Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

In The News


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Recent Country Insights

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2019 Outlook: Suppose Maduro survives
VENEZUELA - Forecast 16 May 2019
With the Maduro regime so shaky, to anchor and focus our forecast, we assume regime survival through 2019 and project this year alone. In our next forecast report, we’ll present 2020-2021 forecasts under alternative regime scenarios. The Maduro regime wants to revive private industry and attac...

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Inflation heads back to 50% m-o-m and more
VENEZUELA - Report 15 May 2019
We revised down our April inflation estimate to 35 percent from 45 percent in our previous report. The price of the dollar in the parallel market rose by 21 percent, lower than our expected 42 percent, and consumption was weaker than expected for longer than expected. Accumulated inflation for Ja...

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Exchange freedom in a minefield
VENEZUELA - In Brief 10 May 2019
As of 7 May, individuals and private companies can buy and sell foreign currency through local commercial banks and exchange houses with no constraints on prices or amounts. Resolution N° 2019-05-01 of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) dated 2 May 2019 sets out the rules. The new market largely...

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The crisis accelerates
VENEZUELA - In Brief 05 May 2019
The April 30 events took everyone by surprise by bringing into the open negotiations underway with members of Maduro's entourage. Soon after Juan Guaidó and Leopoldo López, suddenly freed from house arrest by his Bolivarian Intelligence Service (SEBIN) custodians, appeared at La Carlota Military ...

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Maduro survives blackouts but feels the international pressure
VENEZUELA - Report 26 Apr 2019 1 response
After 15 years of mismanagement, the national electric system collapsed last March, causing blackouts that left the country virtually without water, functioning hospitals, public transportation, or communications. There is now electricity rationing everywhere except Caracas, where Maduro fears so...

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BCV's designation as SDN
VENEZUELA - In Brief 22 Apr 2019
The designation of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) as a Specially Designated National and Blocked Person (SDN) by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on 17 April 2019 focuses on the central bank's foreign reserve management. Licenses issued in conjunction with the designation exclude ...

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Depression mitigates hyperinflation
VENEZUELA - Report 10 Apr 2019
Depression is the price Venezuela is paying to slow down inflation. The government has focused on stabilizing the price of the dollar in the parallel market by using a reserve requirement policy that suffocates banks, freezes bank credit and paralyzes economic activity in order to mitigate inflat...

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U.S. sanctions against Bandes
VENEZUELA - In Brief 25 Mar 2019
On Friday, 22 March 2019, the U.S. imposed sanctions against the Bank of Economic and Social Development of Venezuela (Bandes) and four institutions it controls: Banco de Venezuela and Banco Bicentenario in Venezuela, Bandes Uruguay in Uruguay and Banco Prodem in Bolivia. All five have been desig...

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The regime escalates conflict after the Bachelet report
VENEZUELA - Report 21 Mar 2019
Venezuela’s massive blackout is a sign of the serious deterioration of public services and the deepening humanitarian crisis. Maduro intensifies repression. Regime change becomes more urgent but the time horizon seems to lengthen. Allied countries, including the U.S., abandoned the "credible t...

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