VENEZUELA
Analysts
Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry AssociationDatabanks
Events
Recent Country Insights
On the road to July 28
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Jul 2024
As of now, elections will likely take place. The focus shifts to the government’s tactics blocking opposition witnesses, possible disruptions on election day (electricity or communication systems failures that the government "alerts" as a possibility of opposition sabotage), practices that deter ...
Elections, oil pose large risks to forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2024
We hold to our single scenario for our 2024―2025 forecast period, during which the goal of reducing inflation will remain a priority regardless of how elections turn out, and the exchange rate will serve as the nominal anchor for the government’s fight against inflation. We forecast an annual ...
Turnout will be crucial
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Jul 2024 · 1 response
At this stage, the electoral outlook hinges on how the government decides to neutralize Edmundo González Urrutia's lead in the polls and how those decisions will bear on voter turnout. We have formulated five scenarios for the next 30 days. In each, the government makes a distinct cost-benefit an...
Gamechanger
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Jun 2024 · 1 response
The constitutional injunction filed on June 19 before the Supreme Court of Justice by Jaime Gonzalez, deputy of the National Assembly for a "loyal opposition party," will most likely lead to an indefinite suspension of the presidential election scheduled for July 28. The plaintiff requests an unn...
Disinflation (with risks)
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2024
In this piece, our outlook for 2024–2025, we hold to our single public policy scenario no matter who wins the July 28 presidential election. Regardless of that outcome, the Maduro government will be in power at least until January 2025 and will have incentives to hold to its stabilization course ...
Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024
In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...
Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024
The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...
New single scenario given GL 44a
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 May 2024
For the remainder of 2024, we present a single scenario now, one that reflects General License 44a (GL 44A) and the current economic policy framework. Inflation in this scenario decelerates to 70 percent from last year’s 190 percent, and the exchange rate moves up 36 percent to close 2024 at 53.3...
Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024
The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...