Recent Country Insights
A New Set of Inflation Scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2023
In February 2023, monthly inflation slowed down to 17.5 percent from its January rate of 29.0 percent. Its annual rate, however, rose to 385 percent from its previous 324 percent. The February slowdown in inflation is a consequence, on the one hand, of the third monthly drop in a row in privat...
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2023
The threat of hyperinflation redux brings to light just how precarious is the government’s macro stabilization model. Forced to speed up Venezuela’s forex burn rate to contain bolivar weakening and faced with salary demands that can’t be met and the rising costs of ubiquitous corruption, especial...
Upward revisions for inflation and the exchange rate
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2023
January 2023 data are telling us that current inflationary dynamics are strong. Inflation for the month reached 29 percent driven by an expansion in primary money in turn fueled by an atypical hike in public spending and weak central bank currency sales. Everyone’s talking about the minimum wa...
Maduro hopes to bargain “his way”
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Feb 2023
In January, the government began hostilities aimed at placing conditions on the Mexico agenda it can then use as bargaining chips. It has threatened to replace all non-Chavista members of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE). To do so would jeopardize the legitimacy...
Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...
It’s all about oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2023
Inflation slowed in 2022 for the fourth consecutive year, though by far less than the government had hoped. Inflation exceeded the government’s double-digit annual inflation target last August. Still, the year closed with an estimated inflation of 251 percent, which is far less than the 681 perce...
Adios, interim presidency
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023
The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...
It’s Only the Beginning
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022
After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...
Stabilization at risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2022
Monthly inflation for November jumped to 19.0 percent from 6.0 percent as a direct consequence of a 45.6 percent rise in the dollar against the bolivar. This bolivar plunge is the deepest seen so far this year. Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) foreign exchange interv...