VENEZUELA

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Country Analysts

Ruth Krivoy
Former Central Bank President
Tamara Herrera
Former Advisor, Banking Industry Association

In The News

Databank

Click here to access the latest Macroeconomic Databank

Recent Country Insights

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Inflation speeds up as 2020 begins
VENEZUELA - Report 14 Jan 2020
In December, the month-on-month inflation rate reached 50 percent (our estimate), higher than the 36 percent we had forecast. Year-on-year inflation thus ended 2019 at about 9,800 percent, compared with our earlier forecast of 9,050 percent. Inflation was pushed up by rising black market dollar p...

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Why?
VENEZUELA - In Brief 07 Jan 2020 1 response
On 5 January 2020 the regime carried out a parliamentary coup aimed at replacing Juan Guaidó as president of the National Assembly (AN). It created a fictitious, fraudulent and obedient AN Board while, at the same time, a legitimate Board headed by Juan Guaidó emerged from the vote of 100 deputie...

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Forecast with a fork
VENEZUELA - Forecast 23 Dec 2019
We visualize a single base case for 2020 that splits into two scenarios for 2021–2022. In 2020, the Maduro government runs public policy all year, incentivized by the promise of an electoral victory. The policy stance on price setting and exchange rates stays relaxed, although the legal appara...

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Two 2020 pivot points
VENEZUELA - Report 17 Dec 2019
As 2019 comes to a draw, short-term regime changes look distant. The opposition is in disarray; Maduro has the upper hand. We see three political scenarios for 2020–2021. They pivot on assumptions as to how two key events will play out next year: the appointment of a new National Electoral Co...

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Year-end inflation call: 9,000 percent
VENEZUELA - Report 11 Dec 2019
Consumer prices in November accelerated somewhat less than we had forecast, the result of Black Friday discounts at retail outlets and gentler-than-expected bolivar depreciation. Hence, we are revising our November inflation forecast to 34 percent from our earlier projection of 40%. We revise...

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A way forward fraught with risk
VENEZUELA - Report 25 Nov 2019
With the Maduro regime learning to live with sanctions but needing some stability to endure and the Guaidó-led opposition unable to force Maduro to step down, there is space for both sides to negotiate a renewal of National Electoral Council (CNE) members and the organization of 2020 National Ass...

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Brief and costly inflation slowdown
VENEZUELA - Report 12 Nov 2019
Inflation slowed down a little more sharply in October than we had expected, to 17 percent month-on-month from 63 percent in September. We had forecast 21 percent. Consumer prices rose by 4,916 percent in the first ten months of the year, for a year-on-year inflation rate of 38,906 percent in Oct...

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Misguided dollar indexation
VENEZUELA - Report 08 Nov 2019
In October 2019, the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) officially instituted dollar indexation in three spheres: commercial credit offered by banks, penalties for reserve requirement non-compliance, and rates on central bank open market operations. The BCV’s policy is ineffective and unsustainable....

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BCV data on inflation and GDP in a nutshell
VENEZUELA - Report 25 Oct 2019
After a five-month pause, BCV released data on inflation through September 2019, and on GDP and balance of payments through the first quarter 2019. This note addresses inflation and GDP. Our comments on balance of payments data will follow. BCV placed January-September 2019 accumulated inflati...

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