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(Kurdish) Peace Process: A little bit of Peace, a lot of Process
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025

Most visitors come back from Bodrum with fun memories: Sun-kissed pristine beaches, endless rave parties and excessive food and alcohol consumption. Your Truly came back with food poisoning, thus skipping his contribution to our Weekly Tracker. This Market Brief is to atone for his sins, where he...

Magín Díaz Appointed Minister of Finance Following Jochy Vicente's Resignation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 15 Jul 2025 · 1 response

Jochy Vicente has resigned as Minister of Finance of the Dominican Republic, and economist Magín Díaz has been appointed as his successor. Vicente had served in the role since August 2020, at the start of President Luis Abinader's first term. Magín Díaz has dedicated his professional career to fi...

We revise down exchange rate and inflation forecasts
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jul 2025

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for two main reasons: the reduction in cash transfers under the Patria system following the elimination of some benefits starting in June 2025, and our assumption that the government will seek to contain inflationary pressures by keeping mo...

Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025

Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...

Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025

In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...

Lula published a decree regulating the Reciprocity Law, the STF will hold a conciliation meeting on the IOF issue, and the Joint Committee on MP 1,303 should be installed today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2025

A decree from President Lula was published today in the Federal Official Gazette regulating the Reciprocity Law. The decree establishes the Interministerial Committee on Economic and Trade Negotiations and Countermeasures. The committee is meeting with representatives from the affected trade sect...

The government regains the narrative and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

This is the final week of legislative activity in Congress before the recess begins on July 18. The House may vote on proposals related to court-ordered government payments (precatórios) and environmental licensing. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will hold a conciliation meeting between the Exec...

The dark side of the moon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

The surprising imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US is expected to have negative effects on economic activity, particularly on the manufacturing sector. The US absorbs 12% of Brazilian exports, accounting for just under 2% of GDP, but almost 18% of manufactured exports, equiva...

Israel’s post-war economic outlook: uncertainty eased, risks remain
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jul 2025

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran ended with significant damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and missile capabilities without escalating into a broader regional conflict. For Israel, the outcome represents a meaningful improvement in its geopolitical standing and a substantial reduction ...

Economics: Public finance results in May show some positive results but not enough to forego a further deterioration
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025

Some public finance results for May showed positive figures, but not many are expected to endure. The fiscal deficit was lowered a real -47% yoy thanks to an increase in budgetary revenues, especially robust VAT and income tax collections. However, depressed excise tax collections and oil-related...

This is the last week of congressional activity before the recess, the Lower House has important bills on its agenda, and a Joint Committee on MP 1.303 should be installed tomorrow
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

This is the final week of activity in the National Congress before the recess begins on Friday (July 18). It will be an informal recess, as the vote on the Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) bill has not been concluded. The Lower House has important bills on the agenda, such as the Constitutional Amendm...

Politics: Initiatives and recently approved laws represent a worrying setback for freedom of expression and citizens' privacy
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jul 2025

Is Mexico advancing, slowly or otherwise, toward an authoritarian state? Many critics of Claudia Sheinbaum’s government think so, and several recent developments would appear to validate such fears. For argument's sake, such developments could be attributable to some overzealous officials or chal...

The elephant has entered the china shop
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2025

As his self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade talks had been passed, Mr. Trump sent out a number of letters in the past few days. Mme von der Leyen also received one, from which she learnt that the US government intended to impose a 30% general tariff on all of the EUs merchandise exports sold in...

Strong retail sales, modest fiscal improvement
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jul 2025

This is a brief, econ-only report, as our politics author is dealing with a few minor health issues. He will update our readership on recent political developments in the next 24-48 hours. Industrial production and retail and wholesale trade both rose visibly in May over April, but the big pic...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ accelerates taper, Oman upgraded again, Saudi to expand foreign property ownership, Trump threatens BRICS tariff
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jul 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC+ is accelerating its taper by 0.55m b/d in August, more than had been expected. * The IEA estimates that Saudi production surged in June to 0.4m b/d above its quota. * Saudi Arabia was ranked 1st globally for ICT dev...

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