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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The challenges of the pension system and Mulino's path to reform
PANAMA · Report · 16 Sep 2024

President Mulino made several important announcements on Thursday, September 12, focusing on the path of the pension reform and placing strong emphasis on measures to improve the healthcare system, which could lead to political gains. On the pension system, Mulino confirmed a dialogue table start...

Rates to remain on hold for quite some time as inflation accelerates; a rate hike cannot be ruled out if the shekel weakens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2024

Geopolitics: Cease-fire negotiations with Hamas appear to have stalled. Israel continues to target specific areas in Gaza (but with a lower level of intensity) and the level of hostilities (number of missile barrages) in the North appear to have escalated. A missile from Yemen was intercepted 35 ...

Not much new to report
TURKEY · Report · 15 Sep 2024

Frankly, readers may dispense with the domestic policy essays of the politics author, where he repeats his well-known views on late-2025 elections and the potential banning of CHP Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. In diplomatic matters, the cozying relationship between the US and Greek Cyprio...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC cuts oil demand forecast, Saudi non-oil GDP rises, Oman’s OQ to IPO upstream subsidiary, Bahrain sells pipeline stake
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Sep 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * OPEC and IEA cut oil demand forecasts, and Brent briefly fell below $70 for the first time since 2021. * The GCC held dialogues with China and India and began free trade talks with Indonesia. * Saudi non-oil Q2 GDP grew a...

Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024

The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...

Steady economic performance in August
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the short-term indicator that captures economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, communications, trade, and transportation combined with warehousing grew by 4.4% y-o-y in 8M24 (up from 4.1% y-o-y in 7M24). Construction was the fastes...

The House approved the payroll tax relief bill yesterday, the Senate continues to discuss Tax Reform, and the Copom is expected to decide on the basic interest rate next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2024

Yesterday, the House concluded the approval of the bill proposing a three-year transition for the end of payroll tax exemptions for 17 economic sectors and for the full INSS (Brazilian Social Security) rate to be charged in municipalities with up to 156,000 inhabitants. In the Senate, the Economi...

August CPI - The half-full/half-empty glass
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Sep 2024

August National CPI inflation came in at 4.2% m/m. This is the fourth consecutive month with an inflation rate of close to 4%. While those monthly rates are the lowest since 2021, their result can still be read as a half-full/half-empty glass.Graph 1 On the positive side, It must be remembered th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Political spectrum shapes up in Georgia in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Sep 2024

We stay on topic with Georgia as we transition from economics, which we discussed last week, to politics and, in particular, the upcoming Oct 26th Parliamentary Elections. The political spectrum has already shaped up, with three opposition coalitions facing the ruling Georgian Dream. While the la...

China’s Struggling Consumer
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 12 Sep 2024

Some Recent consumer data shows the Chinese economy steadily weakening. We look at several key data points pointing to the decline. Declining film box office revenue: The totals for film revenue is down 43 percent for the three months from June through August. According to a senior film exe...

Government outlines reform proposals for taxes, labor and electricity
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 12 Sep 2024

The key draft laws of President Luis Abinader’s economic reform program have been developed in recent weeks, with tax, labor and electrical sector reforms delineated. The proposed new laws are to be sent to Congress for consideration in coming weeks. The goal of the tax reform plan is to incr...

Balance of payments and budget remain reasonably stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The CBR reported that the current account surplus reached $40.5 bln in 8M24 (in August alone, it was $2.5 bln). As the oil prices have been on a downward trend since July, Russia’s exports also declined, having reached $33.0 bln in August (in May and June, exports were about $36.6 and $35.4 bln)....

The House should approve the payroll tax relief bill today, the House approved the “fuels of the future” bill, and Pacheco is still unlikely to accept an impeachment request against Justice de Moraes
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2024

The House is expected to conclude today the vote on the bill addressing payroll tax relief. The bill could be signed into law shortly. Another important bill approved by the House deals with the "fuels of the future," which establishes national programs for green diesel, sustainable aviation fuel...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2024

The situation in the FX market improved. The CBR efforts supported by the market participants helped to restore regular flow between OTC and the exchanges. As a result, the spread between domestic and international USD/CNY rates evaporated. On top of that, the CNY money market in Russia stabilize...

Budget stalemate; what now?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 11 Sep 2024 · 1 response

On September 11th, the economic committees of the House and the Senate did not come to an agreement on the size of the national budget for 2025. Votes were insufficient to approve the size proposed by the Government, but votes also came short to reduce its size to a specific number. Even though t...

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