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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024

Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...

Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024

In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...

Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...

Webinar Replay - Central America Outlook: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the economic outlook for Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. What will fiscal consolidation mean for Costa Rica after its IMF program ends? Will El Salvador agree to a new IMF financing program? Will Guatemala find stability after ...

Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024

Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...

Prospects looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...

Bukele sweeps presidential and congressional elections
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2024

by Félix Delgado and Fernando Naranjo According to official figures of the Supreme Electoral Court with 70.25% of electoral records processed, Bukele got 1,662,313 million votes, while the second place Manuel Flores from FMLN only 139,000 votes. Bukele announced his victory with more than 85% of ...

Growth and advantages ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Jan 2024

El Salvador will hold presidential elections on February 4th, with president-on-leave Nayib Bukele a leading contender. Despite strong arguments about the unconstitutionality of his running for another term, Bukele’s candidacy is now a certainty. New members of Congress will also be elected and,...

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn in as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2024

Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala after serious difficulties in the presidential inauguration. On January 15th, Bernardo Arevalo was sworn as president of Guatemala for a four-year period. The delays were a consequence of the declaration of the 23 legislators of the Semilla Par...

Growth performance mixed, as political turmoil rises.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Costa Rica’s 2023 economic performance looks promising, according to economic activity figures to October. Domestic political conditions continue as reported since June 2022, with tense relations between the government and the opposition, but seemingly with little impact on the course of business...

Bukele powers ahead
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Nov 2023

El Salvador is preparing for the February 2024 presidential elections, with President Nayib Bukele already registered to run. His notice revived discussions about the supposed unconstitutionality of his running for a successive term, and several annulment petitions were presented before the Supre...

COSTA RICA: Positive economic news
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 07 Nov 2023

The last few weeks have been marked by positive news for Costa Rica's economy. First, the EU recently removed the country from the tax haven blacklist as a result of the amendments approved by the Legislative Assembly to the foreign exemption regime. This is a major accomplishment because it remo...

Political and economic ups and downs
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

Costa Rica’s political conditions remain similar, characterized by confrontational relationships like those prevailing since the beginning of this administration. Positive appraisals of President Rodrigo Chaves have declined, and although more than half the population still approves of his perfor...

Strong protests in Guatemala in support of Bernardo Arevalo
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

October 5th marks the fourth consecutive day of protests and roadblocks of Guatemala's main roads. Several groups are rejecting the intervention of the Attorney General's office in the presidential transition process. During the latest round of raids, the Prosecutor's Office confiscated the votin...

Economic performance mixed, with Bukele likely to be reelected
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Sep 2023

El Salvador’s economy turned in a weak performance this year, influenced by adverse international economic conditions, especially in the country’s main trading and financial partner, the United States. The effect on local activity was both direct and indirect, the latter via slower growth in othe...

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