GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The erosion of Viktor Orbán’s long-standing political dominance in Hungary, resulting in his election loss, can offer a couple of genuinely important lessons for Armenian observers. They are particularly relevant given my mathematical analysis of the election complexities of the Armenian election...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging trends in 2025 CA positions

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Apr 2026

Four countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan reported 4Q25 and full-year BoP data over the last week. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the countries sitting at both extremes of CA positions and, in my view, presenting the most interesting analytical cases, are yet to do that....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Dancing on a fault line-Armenia heads to the polls

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Apr 2026

With two months to election day, three key opposition centers of gravity have formed that stand reasonable chances of making it through the National Assembly, although, by law, April 23 marks the final day when blocks and coalition may be formally announced. In this piece, I first briefly out...

Topic of the week - 1Q2026 CCA Slide deck

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From Tehran to the pump: oil shock inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Mar 2026

The adverse oil shock emanating from the Iran crisis risks derailing the disinflation story that I expected across the CCA this year. Inflation across the region appeared to have peaked in 2025, with most economies projected to see easing price pressures in 2026, including on slower growth, a fav...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia regains investor interest in 2025

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

This week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2025) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, FDI has been the subject of intense discussion and speculation over the course of the last two years as the government and the opposition have offe...

Azerbaijan’s Iran crisis mood: anxiety, not triumph

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

I spent much of the weekend wading through Azerbaijani commentary on the latest round of conflict with Iran (Iran's alleged drone strike against Nakhchivan, the militarized response from Baku, Iran's military public appeal to Azerbaijan to expel Israelis from its territory, as the latter presumab...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opaque BoP flows sustain Kyrgyzstan’s sanctions overhang

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Mar 2026

I previously hypothesized a direct link between what I dubbed the "rogue" E&O in Kyrgyzstan's BoP and the sanctions on the banks that the EU imposed last Oct. The Feb 26 visit of EU Sanctions Envoy David O'Sullivan to Bishkek to warn the government that its heavy “re-exports” to Russia of dual-us...

Shockwaves from Tehran: Quantifying the Economic Impact on the South Caucasus

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

In my Mon note I expressed bewilderment at the lack of proper reaction of Armenian authorities to the fiery situation unfolding at their southern border. In a video gone viral in the country, the PM Pashinyan was caught on camera munching on corn in a bus that was a on campaign tour in the countr...

Shadow over Ararat: Strikes on Iran reveal Armenia's strategic vulnerability

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2026

The aftershocks of the latest round of missile strikes in Iran have been quick to reverberate across the South Caucasus, raising fresh questions about the security, trade routes, and economic resiliency of Armenia. Instability on Armenia’s southern border could rapidly evolve into a structural ch...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—is the diamond trade making a comeback?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026

I have over the last couple of years liked to compare the economic performance of Armenia and Georgia. My pithy conclusion has been that the soaring GDP growth that averaged 10 percent annually in 2022 and 2023 in both countries reflected similar underlying reasons related to the favorable effect...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The debt implications of upgrading Armenia's nuclear industry

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Armenia and USA signed this month a joint statement of cooperation on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The government and newswires have hurried to conclude that the USA would provide US$9bn as part of the deal, which ultimately results in constructing a small modular (nuclear) reactor (SMR). ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia notches another record-breaking year in tourism

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Feb 2026

Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been an important income generator for the economy, having brought on average about 8.6 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2025 (and about 12.5 percent of GDP in both 2024 and 2025). Naturally, then, the events of the last two years spanning the adoption of the...

Kyrgyzstan: "Two friends never fight for power"

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026 · 1 response

President Sadyr Japarov clears the decks ahead of a high-stakes presidential race looming larger. For the second time since Oct Kyrgyzstan has come to the fore in terms of offering us a glimpse of how the obscure political field in the country operates. In a largely unexpected, albeit probably no...

Why is the Uzbek Soum losing some altitude in early 2026?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

While I am on topic (see my report "Uzbekistan is gingerly breaking away from the twin-deficit curse"), I offer my pithy thoughts on the early-year softening of the UZS since I have been prompted by client questions. The 2025 unusual strengthening of regional currencies (vs the US$) figured prom...