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Aug CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Azerbaijan revises down 2025 GDP growth, remittances to Uzbekistan keep on growing
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Aug 2025

I touch on the key macro-political events in the South Caucasus during the latest month: Armenia: CPI declines to 3.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Central Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Government debt inches down in 2Q25 Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% YoY in 2Q25 Armenia: Monthly ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Why is Georgia growing so much faster than Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Aug 2025

When the IMF upped its 2025 GDP forecast for Georgia (to 7.2%) in June upon conducting its regular Article IV Mission in Tbilisi, many were caught by surprise. After all, wasn't Georgia about to experience the aftershocks of the contested parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 as religi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Aug 2025

The various geopolitical angles surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no consideration by experts. It relates to the so...

Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Aug 2025

The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pa...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is making good progress with renewable energy sources
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Aug 2025

In the past several days, two stories about the energy industry of Uzbekistan have made headlines. First, Uzbekistan and SOCAR Azerbaijan have entered into a production sharing agreement (PSA) on the Ustyurt plateau with expectations of investing US$2bn and discovering an impressive 100mn tons of...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...

Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025

Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions improve marginally in CCA in 1Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Jul 2025

The 1Q25 data for the CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position improved marginally in the first quarter of the year, but remained in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 4...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...

Topic of the week - 2Q25 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Jun 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 208-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the second quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, in...

Armenia: PM Pashinyan resorts to desperate means to cling to power
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2025

Pashinyan is getting rid of the opposition. I have spent a lot of time in the last month or so writing about Armenia, and it seems for good reason. The loss in the municipal elections in Gyumri, the rising momentum to impeach Pashinyan, and the PM's ill-fated attack on the Church are a few exampl...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: South Caucasus—Winners and losers from the Iran-Israel conflict
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Jun 2025

Two of the three South Caucasian nations directly border Iran, and their initial reaction to the Israel-Iran conflict says a lot about their relative positions vis-a-vis the regional battle. While Armenia categorically condemned the "one-sided attack on Iran", Azerbaijan opted for a restrained rh...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currencies in a sweet spot, but for how long?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Jun 2025

Typically, the Caucasus and Central Asia currencies have faced a weakening RUB, which creates a myriad of problems for countries that tend to run trade deficits with Russia and depend on cross-border remittances from their large neighbor. But 2025 has been different, with the strengthening RUB ge...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—Pashinyan picks a fight he can't win
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

One can't deny that PM Pashinyan has shown remarkable political agility since coming to power in 2018. He faced many adversities during that period, including two lost wars, but he survived those challenges as a genuinely smooth operator. However, the latest fight he has picked—with the Armenian...

May CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Tajikistan cuts rates, Uzbekistan's FX reserve reach record-highs, Azerbaijan's CPI breaches CPI target range
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2025 · 1 response

I briefly touch on the key macro and political events in the CCA in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 5.2% YoY in 1Q25 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 5.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Amulsar mine launch may have positive impact on GDP growth of about 0.5% Armenia: Central Bank keeps po...

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