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Tajikistan external story is probably the simplest as the BoP is heavily dominated by remittances from Russia. Tajikistan is the last in the short series on the external accounts of the CCA economies, and it is arguably the most straightforward of all. It has been posting CA surpluses since mid-2...

Uzbekistan's BoP suffers the pinch of gold, albeit with a caveat

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 15 Jul 2026

The CA deficit has widened significantly on lack of gold exports. Uzbekistan had enjoyed a stream of steadily improving external accounts over 2024/2025 as the CA deficit narrowed from the peak of 8.0 percent of GDP in 1Q24 (on a 12mma basis) to the trough of only 1.9 percent of GDP in 3Q25 (Grap...

Georgia is riding an FX wave to its smallest current-account deficit ever

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Jul 2026

Georgia's external story has its own defining characteristics, centered around the steady inflow of foreign exchange in the face of complex political relations with the West. The CA registered a deficit of US$356.0mn in 1Q26 on the back of the US$631.1mn deficit posted in 1Q25 and the US$482.5mn ...

Azerbaijan's external accounts come with an increasingly large SOFAZ asterisk

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2026

Azerbaijan comes second in my analysis of the external accounts in the CCA region and the improvement it saw in its CA position in 1Q26 was not for the reason one may have anticipated. The CA surplus improved to 9.5 percent of GDP in the quarter from 2.4 percent of GDP in 4Q25 and 6.5 percent of ...

Geopolitical tailwinds lift Armenia’s external accounts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 10 Jul 2026

While Kyrgyzstan reported its full-year 2025 BoP data only last week, the rest of the CCA region already released their external accounts for the first quarter of 2026 over the course of the past week. I generally prefer to comment on them in a single post, but this time around I have decided to ...

Topic of the week: 2Q 2026 Slide deck

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 02 Jul 2026

This is the quarterly slide deck for 2Q26 for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inflation, ra...

Kyrgyzstan has yet to convincingly rein in opaque trade flows

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2026 · 1 response

I must admit that I have a soft spot for Kyrgyzstan's BoP data. It is probably the most exciting set of external flows from an analytical perspective in my CCA region and a treasury trove for drawing conclusions about Bishkek's efforts to clamp down on opaque trade with Russia. The analysis is, o...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Opposition cross-pollination in the South Caucasus—Armenia and Georgia exchanging lessons from the political battlefield

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Jun 2026

Two key events have taken place in the Armenian and Georgian political fields these days. In the former, I see no surprises coming from tomorrow's Constitutional Court decision on the validity of the elections as the Court will rubber stamp Pashinyan's victory. The really interesting debate th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The new shade of success? Think Uzbek green!

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Jun 2026 · 1 response

Uzbekistan is Central Asia’s rising heavyweight, and I have discussed its various shades of success, ranging from its improving macro-stability, narrowing twin deficits and rising quality of policy-making to its strengthening demographics and improving health statistics. One particular area that ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Gas, roses and peppers—Armenia's dilemma

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Jun 2026

"If peppers are spoiling, I'll pay for those peppers. If roses are spoiling, I'll pay for them, too." Pashinyan's agriculture-related tirade become one of the more widely discussed soundbites of the final week of the campaign. That emotionally-charged outburst was tied to the recent restrictions ...

Armenian election results take an odd turn

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026

In a rather odd development, the Central Election Commission announced changes in the results previously reported on its website. Trying to explain the changes would only spoil interpretation, so I take the liberty of simply citing CEC Chairman verbatim: "You have all seen the figures published o...

Armenian elections results: first thoughts

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 08 Jun 2026

The CEC has just announced the preliminary results from yesterday's vote (final tally must be submitted by law within 7 days of the election). Here are the key takeaways as I see them: 1. The election was hotly contested in a polarized society. The turnout, at roughly 59%, was higher than the 201...

Armenia elections: Outlook and implications - Slide presentation and webinar replay

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 04 Jun 2026

Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Get insight into Armenia's parliamentary elections with the slide presentation and repl...

Upcoming webinar: Armenia elections - outlook and implications

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Jun 2026

Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026

The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...