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Politics: Xóchitl vaults into the lead for the opposition nomination but major obstacles lurk ahead
MEXICO · Report · 24 Jul 2023

As we have noted in recent weeks, Xóchitl Gálvez’s decision to jump into the race to become the opposition presidential candidate has shaken up a contest that had already started to evolve thanks to the efforts of civil society groups and others that brought hundreds of thousands into the streets...

Economics: New points of friction in US-Mexico trade, a potential threat to FDI and nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 18 Jul 2023

Mexican exports to the US have been experiencing a slowdown in recent months that has been most concentrated in their non-automotive manufacturing component even as automotive exports have been highly volatile, delivering very high growth rates in some months of 2022 and early 2023 after dropping...

Politics: Opposition precandidate Xóchitl gains impetus; odds improve to eventually bring the MC on board
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jul 2023

Less than three weeks since Senator Xóchitl Gálvez surprisingly announced she would enter the presidential contest she has quickly gained momentum, as both endorsements and the latest polls show. In that short time, she has easily leapfrogged over all other aspirants to become the opposition’s st...

Politics: De facto presidential candidate selection process advances, race tightens up
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Now that the opposition coalition and civil society groups worked out the basic rules for the process of choosing their future presidential nominee over recent weeks and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez jumped into the race, the Broad Opposition Front has begun to gain the sort of traction that eluded it f...

Economics: FDI sustains positive trajectory but the country is failing to fully reap the benefits of nearshoring
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has performed favorably during the current administration, and its potential can increase if appropriate measures are taken to attract nearshoring investment. It is important to consider, however, that although the nearshoring phenomenon has been recurrently mentio...

Politics: Opposition coalition commits to presidential pre-nomination process, Xóchitl candidacy the big surprise
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jul 2023

Following months of wrangling between the three opposition coalition parties and civil society organizations and activists, both sides settled on the basic approach for choosing the person who will eventually be their 2024 presidential candidate. The rules, which offer a hybrid approach combining...

Economics: Data in June shows internal market as main growth catalyst, with inflation and exports subsiding
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jul 2023

As the internal market has emerged as the economy’s main growth driver, last week saw the release of Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy (IGAE) for April showing that economic activity has sustained a steady pace so far this year, growing a seasonally adjusted 3.3% during the month, in line with its avera...

Economics: Private consumption sustains momentum through April and May
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Last week saw the release of aggregate supply and demand figures showing that private consumption increased 4.5% in the first quarter, a result congruent with the firm GDP growth reported for the same period (3.7%). Even greater increases were reported in consumption of durable and semi-durable g...

Politics: Opposition coalition party leaders poised to announce presidential candidate primary contest
MEXICO · Report · 26 Jun 2023

Following the success of massive demonstrations called by civil society groups last November and February in defense of the INE and democracy, the leaders of the PAN and PRI spent many months stonewalling calls by those same organizers and many others for them to throw open their presidential can...

Politics: AMLO sets the rules with a nudge from Ebrard, but risks to Morena unity remain
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023 · 1 response

After Marcelo Ebrard forced his hand the evening of June 6 by announcing he was resigning as minister of foreign affairs to devote all his efforts to campaigning for the Morena presidential nomination, President López Obrador set clearer rules for the campaign to choose his probable successor. Co...

Economics: April manufacturing data may be just a one-off bounce with further weakness to come
MEXICO · Report · 20 Jun 2023

The industrial activity figures as of April of this year reflect a high increase in manufacturing after registering positive rates but with a deceleration trend in the first months of the year. Manufacturing activity registered an increase of 2.1% with respect to the previous month and 3.2% compa...

Economics: Continuing strength in hiring and wages may encounter obstacles later this year
MEXICO · Report · 13 Jun 2023

Various labor indicators as of the first quarter, as well as other measures through April, indicate that job growth remains high, a result consistent with the extent of the economic growth registered in the first quarter of 2023. Total employment expanded 4.3% in the first quarter of 2023 based o...

Politics: What the June 4 election results mean for each party and the 2024 elections
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jun 2023

Despite having held on to Coahuila, perhaps the biggest loser on June 4 was the PRI, which will no longer govern the State of Mexico for the first time in 96 years. There is no getting around public perceptions of the party as having become practically irrelevant nationally, having seen its erstw...

Economics: Robust remittance, tourism income and FDI numbers for 1Q22 while exports slowed
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jun 2023

A higher petroleum deficit and a more pronounced shortfall in primary income sent Mexico’s current account deficit for the first quarter of 2023 nearly 2.0 billion dollars above that of 1Q22, at the same time as the primary income deficit swelled by close to 4 billion dollars. Current account ...

Politics: Gubernatorial results to set the stage for presidential nominations and battles to come
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2023

On June 4 gubernatorial elections in the State of Mexico and Coahuila were held. Both states are currently governed by the PRI but as was expected by the polls, that party will only retain Coahuila. In the State of Mexico it was defeated with a 10-point difference by the Morena candidate, Delfina...

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