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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: No Foreseeable Lid on the Debt
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2015

Now that the lower chamber of Congress has approved next year’s revenue and spending budgets it is time to take a look at how the public debt and budget deficit are likely to evolve in the coming years. The risks may prove considerable at a time of depressed petroleum revenues and rising debt cos...

Politics: Cannabis Left In Legal Limbo
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Early this month Mexico’s highest court took an initial and decisive step toward ending the ban on the production and consumption of cannabis for recreational purposes by upholding the rights of four plaintiffs to produce it for their own consumption. This decision does not constitute what in com...

Economics: Prem. 3Q GDP Tells a Familiar Story
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

The Estimate of Quarterly GDP for the third quarter, published recently by the National Statistics Office (Inegi), showed 2.4% growth compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The expansion was driven primarily by a 4.6% increase in primary activities and 2.9% growth in those of the tertiary s...

Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections (III)
MEXICO · Report · 12 Nov 2015

With this issue we conclude our initial analysis of the states that will hold gubernatorial elections in 2016. This week we offer a preview of four states that have had at least two experiences with alternation in power: Chihuahua, Aguascalientes, Tlaxcala and Zacatecas. Following seven decades i...

Sticking to Our Low-Growth Guns
MEXICO · Report · 05 Nov 2015

A surprising rise in the monthly GDP proxy for August showed a rebound in the 12-month growth rate, for both the seasonally adjusted (+2.8%) and the original series (+2.6%). The expansion was led by a 7.7% rise in primary sector output and, more importantly, a 3.4% increase in tertiary activity. ...

Economics: Lower House Passes Revenue Bill
MEXICO · Report · 29 Oct 2015

The Chamber of Deputies last week passed the government’s proposed Federal Revenue Law for 2016 and in the process made a few changes. One of the most significant alterations involved the expected average foreign exchange rate. It was raised to 16.40 pesos to the dollar from the 15.90 level the o...

Politics: A Tale of Four State Elections
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The electoral calendar was shaken up late last week as the Federal Electoral Tribunal decided to annul the gubernatorial elections held in the Pacific Coast state of Colima last June, in which the incumbent PRI edged out the PAN by a mere 0.17% of the vote. The tribunal cited evidence that the cu...

Economics: Muddled Outlook for Special Zones
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary On September 29 the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto sent Congress a draft of a Federal Law to establish Special Economic Zones to promote sustained and balanced economic growth in the regions of the country with the least degree of social development. The factor t...

Politics: Initial Preview of 2016 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 21 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Gubernatorial elections will be held next year in 12 states: nine are currently controlled by the PRI while the governors in the remaining three were elected as part of an alliance between the PAN and the PRD. These contests will occur in a national political context strikingly ...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Letdown
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Following five years of negotiations (only three in the case of Mexico, which joined the talks in 2012) a basic agreement has been reached to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, although many legal details have yet to be finalized. The idea for the treaty arose out of an agreeme...

Politics: Corruption and Independent Candidates
MEXICO · Report · 14 Oct 2015

Since the attempt to re-launch the government around the time of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s third State of the Nation address, politics has settled into some semblance of calm, with the exception of the frictions that have played out between the Mexican government and international human righ...

Economics: Changes in Gasoline Price Regulations
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015 · 1 response

In its economic package for 2016, the executive branch proposes moving up the liberalization of gas prices to 2016, seeking to transition toward a free-market system for selling gasoline and diesel to the public and ensuring that cap prices begin to move consistently in line with international be...

Politics: Crime Rate Largely Unchanged, but Black Figure Remains High
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2015

Executive Summary Public security and crime is a major issue in Mexican society. The 2015 National Survey on Victimization and Public Safety (ENVIPE) conducted by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) sheds light on crime rates and the types of crimes committed. But the raw numbers don’t tell...

A Sobering Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 01 Oct 2015

The economy continues to show signs of weakness. The leading economic indicator slipped 0.09 points from June to July, to 99.6 points (below the threshold of its long-term trend). With this in mind, we believe GDP growth will be 1.8% in Q3, and 2.0% in Q4. Consumer inflation has remained stubb...

Economics: An Insufficiently Austere Budget
MEXICO · Report · 15 Sep 2015

The Ministry of Finance handed Congress its 2016 budget proposals on Tuesday, September 8. The budget package includes both the revenue and spending bills along with the document containing the general economic assumptions that underpin the budget proposals. The various components of the 2016 pac...

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