GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne discussing what the results of Peru's first round of elections reveal about Peru’s trajectory and the possible impact on the economy and markets.

Peru: Keiko moves to runoff, second place still tied

PERU · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026 · 1 response

First exit polls were released a few hours ago and at 9pm will be released the first quick count. The message is the Keiko Fujimori form Fuerza Popular moves to the second round with about 16% of the vote. However, the second place is tied between Rafael López Aliaga from right-wing Renovation Po...

Upcoming webinar: Peru first round results - What's next?

PERU · Report · 10 Apr 2026

Date: 13 Apr 2026 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Join us after Peru's first round of elections for a live Zoom webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Peru Analyst Alfredo Thorne discussing what the results reveal about Peru’s trajectory and the possible impact on the economy and markets. T...

Peru: Fujimori keeps her lead, second place is tied

PERU · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026

Two more polls have been released since Sunday, one from Ipsos on Tuesday, and another from Datum today. In both polls, Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular leads, and news was that Ricardo Belmont from Obras has taken the second position. Interesting, Datum calculated a simulacrum of the election...

Peru: Fujimori and Alvarez lead in the polls

PERU · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026

Last night pollsters released their latest poll and Keiko Fujimori from Fuerza Popular kept their lead in most polls. Surprising was the run of Carlos Álvarez from Pais para todos, a well known right-wing comedian and he overtook Rafael López Aliaga from Renovation Popular as the second runner. ...

Peru: The left sneaks into the presidential elections

PERU · In Brief · 25 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This morning Ipsos published its March 22nd poll and simulation. This poll was performed before the presidential debates taking place this week. Ipsos is the only pollster that simulates the presidential election using confidential ballots and we believe is the most accurate. The poll shows that ...

Peru: Prime minister resigned

PERU · In Brief · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response

This afternoon, Prime Minister Denisse Mirelles, adverting a no-confidence vote in Congress tomorrow, decided to resign. We had expected this event and covered in our March forecast essay publish today. A few minutes ago, President José María Balcázar took oath to the new Cabinet led by Luis Arr...

Right-wing candidates take the lead; energy price shock justifies growth forecast cut and inflation forecast hike; we project BCRP policy pause for 2026

PERU · Report · 17 Mar 2026 · 1 response

In this forecast, we review our political scenarios; the impact of supply-price shocks on the economy and inflation; and the likely response by the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (the BCRP, Peru’s central bank). Since the end of February, local politics and geopolitics have mo...

Peru in 2026: Political risks, elections, and economics - Slide presentation and webinar replay

PERU · Presentation · 19 Feb 2026

What should we anticipate in the aftermath of Congress electing a new Speaker, who will become the next president? What will be the impact of the upcoming elections on April 12? Is the central bank's FX intervention effective? What are the side effects? What is Peru's economic forecast for 2026?...

Peru: President Jeri to be impeached

PERU · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

Last night, Congress gathered the necessary support from congress-members to call an extraordinary Congress’ session and discuss President Jeri impeachment. However, Fuerza Popular party and Congress- speaker, Fernando Rospigliosi, from the same party are making it difficult. For once, although 8...

President Jeri risks impeachment; election race heats up; fiscal deficit reached 2.2% of GDP in 2025; PEN/USD appreciation persists

PERU · Report · 10 Feb 2026

We try to answer three key questions in this report: Will Congress impeach President José Jerí? Has the government met its fiscal targets? And is the Banco Central de la República del Perú (BCRP, the central bank) departing from its usual FX intervention policy? In politics, the focus remains...

Peru's President Jerí could face impeachment

PERU · In Brief · 21 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Today at 2pm, Lima time, caretaker president José Jerí will attend Congress' Fiscalization Commission. On Sunday 11th Latina TV aired a video of president Jeri with a hood covering his face and at the middle of the night on December 26th entering a store of a Chinese entrepreneur Zhihua Yang a co...

Election campaign gains momentum; economy decelerated in November 2025; BCRP steps up FX intervention; and MEF to reorganize PetroPerú

PERU · Report · 20 Jan 2026

We cover three topics in this report. First, we analyze developments in the runup to the April 12 general elections. Second, we look at the economy, and argue that a deceleration began in Q4 2025. Finally, we turn to local financial markets, and discuss the increased FX intervention by the Centra...

Election risk in the spotlight; economy to grow by 3.2% in 2025, and 3% in 2026; BCRP likely to extend its policy pause through April

PERU · Report · 23 Dec 2025

In this report, we discuss our most recent forecasts. We first elaborate our political scenarios, and argue that there’s a downside risk in the run-up to first-round national elections in April. We have increased the probability of our low case scenario to 30%, reduced the chance of our base case...

Political risk eases with the appointment of President Jeri; economy surprises on the positive side; the BCRP’s policy dilemma

PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2025

In this report we offer an update on politics, the economy and markets. We first discuss how political risk has remained muted, despite the impeachment of former president Dina Boluarte, and Congress’s naming of José Jerí as interim president, while extending its own term through July 28th. Next,...