Country Insights

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Castillo realigns political support; mining protests introduce risks to growth
PERU - Report 18 Jan 2022
The rapid fall in President Pedro Castillo’s popularity since he formed his government on July 28th has been surprising. Most previous presidents have either continued to sail for a longer “honeymoon period” on the wave of the high popularity that carried them into office, or have at least able t...

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Castillo’s government weakens; growth likely to moderate in 2022‒23
PERU - Forecast 14 Dec 2021
Popular support for the government of President Pedro Castillo continues to dwindle, at a surprisingly rapid pace. Last week the government averted an impeachment process in Congress by only six votes. This perilous state has developed only four months after Castillo stepped into office. Without ...

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Peru: President Castillo impeachment moves forward
PERU - In Brief 01 Dec 2021 1 response
On November 25th, congress member Ms. Patricia Chirinos from Avanza Pais party started an impeachment process against President Castillo. According to the constitution the impeachment takes three phases. First, and with 26 congressional votes, the process is started; second, with 52 congress memb...

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No letup in political risk, as government prepares tax package
PERU - Report 22 Nov 2021
When Mirtha Vásquez was chosen by President Pedro Castillo to replace Guido Bellido as prime minister, most analysts took this as an indication that the president was moving toward a more moderate, conciliatory sociopolitical stance, and markets rallied in response. In fact, out of the eight mini...

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President Castillo reshuffles Cabinet; real GDP growth forecast revised up
PERU - Report 21 Oct 2021
President Pedro Castillo reshuffled his Cabinet on October 6th. This followed a two-month period in which Castillo’s main challenges have originated in his own Cabinet, especially among representatives of his Perú Libre party, and the party’s head, pro-Cuban left-wing radical Vladimir Cerrón. Whi...

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Peru: President Castillo reshuffles his Cabinet
PERU - In Brief 08 Oct 2021
On Tuesday night, October 5, President Castillo, dismissed his controversial Prime Minister Mr. Guido Bellido and reshuffled his Cabinet. Overall the message is positive. Mr. Bellido was a highly controversial individual and many times undercut President Castillo. The latest was the nomination of...

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Caught in a crossfire, Castillo offers more government spending
PERU - Report 21 Sep 2021
After seven weeks in government, the new president has proven difficult to read. Pedro Castillo’s indecisiveness may be explained by his being caught in the crossfire between his own supporters and the opposition parties in Congress. Castillo has so far kept a low profile: he has delivered only o...

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Castillo pushes ahead with his radical program
PERU - Forecast 17 Aug 2021
After less than a month in office, President Pedro Castillo has offered few signs of softening his radical stance, in particular relation to economic policy. At his inauguration speech on July 28th, and the following day, with the appointment of his first Cabinet, he confounded the expectations o...

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Peru Webinar: Reviewing the next government's policies
PERU - Report 30 Jul 2021
Visit our Events Calendar to watch the replay of our latest Peru Webinar featuring Dr. Alfredo Thorne. Following the inauguration, Dr. Thorne discusses the new president's political and economic plans and how new leadership will impact Peru.

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Upcoming Peru Webinar: Reviewing the next government's policies
PERU - Report 23 Jul 2021
Join us for our live Zoom Webinar on Thursday, July 29, 2021, as our Peru Political Analyst Dr. Alfredo Thorne discusses the new president's political and economic plans following the inauguration.

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Castillo confirmed as president, as nation awaits July 28th speech
PERU - Report 19 Jul 2021
On July 21st, more than a month after the June 6th second round of the presidential election, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the National Election Tribunal) is due to announce that Pedro Castillo Terrones of the Perú Libre party has won the election, and will become Peru’s 63rd president...

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Victor likely to have a weak mandate
PERU - Report 14 Jun 2021
Most commentators expected a close result in the June 6th presidential election second-round runoff between Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular and Pedro Castillo of Perú Libre. But few foresaw the razor’s-edge margin that would ultimately mean that the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the Electo...

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Election contest tightens; economy surprises on the upside
PERU - Report 18 May 2021
Less than three weeks before Election Day on June 6th, the second-round runoff between presidential candidates Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo has turned tight. Most opinion polls published over the last four weeks confirm that Castillo has lost much of the strong lead he held at the start of t...

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A breathless run-off presidential election
PERU - Forecast 19 Apr 2021
Without a doubt, the results of the April 11th first-round presidential and congressional elections were surprising. Few had expected an outsider to emerge two weeks ahead of Election Day, and to win by a landslide. The official count by the Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales (ONPE, respons...

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Election race is polarized, while recovery temporarily pauses
PERU - Report 16 Mar 2021 2 responses
The presidential race has grown polarized, according to the most recent opinion polls. Although this is a surprise, in our January Forecast we suggested that this could happen during the last leg of the campaign. We described three possible scenarios: first, a strong winner emerging (with George...