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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The End of Exuberance
PERU · Report · 16 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The government has grown more conciliatory after losing its congressional majority. But it’s open season on criticism, with even Vice President Marisol Espinosa finding fault with government policies and ruling party attitudes at times. Dialogue with the opposition resulted in a...

Government Too Weak to Pass Reforms
PERU · Report · 13 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Congress repealed the new law that aimed to introduce a distinct labor regime for young people. It was proposed without any marketing strategy, and the public reacted with widespread disapproval; polls indicated that 70% of Peruvians were against it. This result also highlights ...

Bad Ending for a Disappointing Year
PERU · Report · 16 Jan 2015

Executive Summary Congress approved most of the Finance Ministry’s proposed economic stimulus measures, as expected. A few are still pending, including measures that soften conditions for job cuts, especially prized by businesses. But a law that allows new workers under age 24 to be treated less ...

Stimulating
PERU · Report · 08 Dec 2014

Executive SummaryThe government finally seems resolved to step up measures to address growth slowdown. After an array of small stimulus packages, Minister of Finance Alonso Segura is taking more aggressive steps, to prod growth toward the government’s 2015 5.5% of GDP target. Surprise! These prop...

Modest Rebound Likely
PERU · Forecast · 17 Nov 2014

Executive SummaryInitial growth expectations for 2014 by both analysts and government authorities have fallen from 5.5% to 6% to the 3% area, which we still consider optimistic. We believe Q4 growth will be about 2% y/y, compared to 1.8% for Q3. We see 2014 growth at just 2.5%.More worrisome is t...

Weaker Growth Amid Regional Discord
PERU · Report · 10 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryThe great surprise of the October 5th regional and local elections was the landslide of Cajamarca regional president Gregorio Santos, in jail on corruption charges. The results revived fears that this key mining territory will have protracted problems developing its vast resource...

Alonso Segura is Peru’s New Finance Minister
PERU · Report · 15 Sep 2014

The New Minister After three years as Minister of Finance, Miguel Castilla resigned yesterday. He declared that he was leaving the ministry after five years (he was advisor and then vice-minister during the two last years of Alan Garcia’s administration) and was replaced by his chief advisor for ...

Rift Threatens to Block Agenda
PERU · Report · 05 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryThe souring relationship between Congress and the executive branch is likely to persist. There are already motions to impeach the minister of Energy and Mines (an effort we think will succeed). This will heighten political polarization, which could lead to the ousting of other mi...

A Scandal-Slowdown Blend
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Though just five months have elapsed since the fifth cabinet was sworn in, last week an embattled Prime Minister Rene Cornejo was forced to resign. Simultaneously, President Ollanta Humala and First Lady Nadine Heredia succeeded in getting their handpicked candidate, Ana Maria S...

Can Private Investment be Rekindled?
PERU · Forecast · 07 Jul 2014

Executive Summary We believe GDP will recover mildly in H2, driven by recovery in mining production, and a slight improvement in investment growth. But it’s hard to envisage a major improvement this year, though the government’s new measures for cutting red tape, and other impediments to investme...

Has Regionalization Failed?
PERU · Report · 06 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The discovery of massive corruption in several regional administrations may offer an opportunity to change a system that challenges the very notion of a unified state. Regional presidents have, illegally and erroneously, challenged national authority, trying to treat Peru as a f...

An Acute Case of Foot-in-Mouth Disease
PERU · Report · 06 May 2014

Executive SummaryThe murder of a rival of Ancash’s regional president pushed worries over political delinquency in the provinces on to the front pages. The scandal forced the agencies overseeing October’s municipal and regional elections to warn that the spread of criminality in politics was the ...

There Goes Plan B
PERU · Report · 08 Apr 2014

Executive Summary First lady Nadine Heredia has rapidly metamorphosed from the government’s main political asset into its biggest liability. Her involvement in the abrupt dismissal of Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva was so obvious, and Villanueva’s sacking so crude, that Heredia drew heavy critic...

Try Again
PERU · Report · 28 Feb 2014

Executive Summary President Ollanta Humala quickly lost the popularity rally he enjoyed in the wake of the favorable Hague ruling on Peru’s maritime border with Chile, after the government mismanaged the PR aspect of a 100% salary hike for top government officials. Humala’s rating tumbled back to...

Something for Everyone
PERU · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryIn what seemed a Solomonic judgment, The Hague has solved the long-running maritime border dispute between Peru and Chile by awarding something to each. Chile was able to retain more or less intact the grounds it has been fishing for the past 50 years, while Peru has added 50,000...

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