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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Waiting Game
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

Two pollsters give Pedro Pablo Kuczynski al slight lead according to their 'rapid count', which is based on a sample of actual voting ballots.Ipsos Kuczynski : 50.5% Fujimori : 49.5%GFK Kuczynski 50.8%: Fujimori: 49.2%Error margin: plus/minus 1% ONPE, the oficial electoral body will not be able t...

Ahead of Today's Election Results
PERU · In Brief · 05 Jun 2016

During the very last days of the campaign we have seen a rapid climb in the vote intention in favor of Kuczynski. They are now neck and neck and given an error margin of 2-3 pp up or down, it will be difficult to draw a meaningful conclusion early on just by assessing exit polls. Later in the eve...

Candidates in the runoff now tied
PERU · In Brief · 03 Jun 2016

The clear 5 pp lead just a few days and in the Sunday's Ipsos poll (the last day poll results are allowed to be published in Peru) has practically vanished. The latest private poll by GFK conducted on Wenesday and Thursday now show Fujimori leading by just 0.6pp (2.3 error margin ). The Fujimori ...

Keiko Leading, PPK Keeps Fighting
PERU · Report · 29 May 2016

Two pro-market presidential candidates are competing in the June 5th runoff, after an April 10th first round that also gave Keiko Fujimori’s party a comfortable congressional majority, of 73 seats out of 130. Her opponent Pedro Pablo Kuczynski drew only 18 congressional seats, but narrowly trounc...

Things Are Looking Up
PERU · Forecast · 06 May 2016

Due to better domestic and external conditions, our economic outlook is more optimistic than at the time of our last Quarterly, on February 1st. Growth is rebounding powerfully, driven by expansion of primary activities, which in turn have been spurred by the activities of two mega mines. For 2...

Kuczinski now sure in the runoff. Peruvian assets surge
PERU · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016 · 2 responses

With 82.55% of the votes already tallied, Keiko Fujimori, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Veronica Mendoza have gathered 39.55%, 22.11% and 18.27% respectively. Markets reacted very positive to the electoral results. The sol appreciate by 2% against the dollar in early trading, sovereign bonds yields t...

Peru's runoff will be contested between Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky
PERU · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

It is just past midnight on the election day in Peru and currently processed data suggest that almost surely Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Pablo Kuczynsky will participate in the runoff election scheduled for the 5th. of June. A sample of actual votes surveyed by Ipsos, a pollster, indicates that Fuji...

Fujimori vs. a Pro or an Anti Market Rival?
PERU · Report · 04 Apr 2016

The latest polls confirm that Keiko Fujimori will be forced into a runoff after the April 10th general elections. Results show her commanding 30% to 35% of voter intention, and slightly above 40% of the valid votes—but short of the 50% she’d need for a first-round win. Demonstrations against her ...

Tumultuous Campaign
PERU · Report · 14 Mar 2016

After the turbulent weeks surrounding the campaign for the April 10th presidential election, the electoral tribunal at last decided to disqualify candidates Cesar Acuña and Julio Guzman, citing irregularities in both candidacies. It’s not yet clear which candidates will benefit most from their...

A Challenging Climate for the Next Administration
PERU · Forecast · 01 Feb 2016

The international and the domestic milieus are unpromising, in terms of helping Peru recover the dynamic growth it has enjoyed for the past decade. But our base scenario is moderately optimistic, given slightly rising growth—likely ending 2015 at around 3%—with better performance in mining and fi...

Explosion of Candidates Under Growth Stagnation
PERU · Report · 28 Dec 2015

We expect at least ten of the 17 current presidential candidates to stay in the race, after the January 11th deadline to register to run in the April 10th elections. December polls show Keiko Fujimori maintaining her lead, with voter intentions at 30%- 35%, and Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski a distant sec...

Tough and Thrilling Times
PERU · Report · 25 Nov 2015

More than 20 political parties have jumped into the April 10th presidential race, though only about 10 candidates are likely to emerge, after parties forge alliances. We expect the final slate to be unveiled by mid-January, when some alliances might also be revealed. All polls show Keiko Fujim...

The Embattled Finale of Humala’s Term
PERU · Report · 20 Oct 2015

With the elections just six months away, the most likely candidates have already announced their plans to run. More than 10 candidates are expected to compete, with Keiko Fujimori, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Alan Garcia leading the pack. The Humala regime is ending weak, and with a dire need to...

Stalking Elusive Recovery
PERU · Forecast · 07 Sep 2015

In our scenario, business confidence will strengthen only a bit in coming months, then rally after the April 2016 general elections. We believe the next government will pursue market-friendly policies, and build alliances in Congress geared to passing urgent structural reforms. That would also pa...

Accusations Fly in as Elections Near
PERU · Report · 11 Aug 2015

President Ollanta Humala’s confrontational attitude toward the opposition has compounded his party’s problems, after it lost its congressional majority. The uncovering of wrongdoing related to campaign financing and favoritism in the awarding of contracts to individuals and firms linked to the pr...

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