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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...

Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...

BSP's rate cut justified by large monetary space
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jun 2025

Some segments of business media were quite skeptical about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision last Thursday. The Philippines’ monetary authorities opted to sustain for the second time a 25-basis-point reduction in its policy rate and issued virtual forward guidance that it is prepare...

"No" to accountability and justice?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 04 Jun 2025

Even before the Philippines’ House of Representatives impeached Vice President Sara Duterte on February 5, 2025 by a vote of 215 out of 306 members based on a 44-page “verified complaint for impeachment,” President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had on many occasions distanced himself from the whole process...

May 12 elections: A wake-up call to BBM and an audience for progressive thoughts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 15 May 2025

A quick glance at the results of the Philippines’ May 12 mid-term elections shows initial signs that the Filipino electorate has started repudiating movie stars and game show hosts, political dynasties, deadwood, and those suspected of plunder and corruption. The formula of name recall, political...

No sequel to Duterte 1.0?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 May 2025

What is at crucial stake in the forthcoming mid-term election on May 12 in the Philippines is not so much the large number of elective positions, and that is 18,280. It is rather the number of senators that Vice-President Sara Duterte could help land in the magic 12. Led by Speaker Martin Romuald...

Does weak business sentiment portend weak GDP for Q1 2025?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Apr 2025

The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), in its latest monetary policy report, claimed that the Philippines’ economic growth could be just “near the lower bound” of the government’s growth target of 6-8% from 2025 through 2028. We would call this a demonstration of the BSP’s independence and auton...

Lower inflation means rate cuts, but pushback is building from inflation and stability concerns
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Mar 2025

We believe that benign inflation readings and forecasts should allow the BSP to sustain its easing cycle at least twice this year and in baby steps. Modest easing is critical when uncertainties abound, particularly regarding the prospects for growth and financial stability. With a potentially wea...

Reflections on economic growth: dynamics and risks
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Mar 2025

At end-January 2024, the Philippines’ statistical authority announced that the country’s economy expanded by 5.6%, just a tad higher than the 5.5% growth in 2023. Growth was propelled by financial and insurance activities up 8.5 percent; construction up 7.8 percent; and wholesale and retail trade...

Elusive inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2025

GlobalSource Partners Philippines has been monitoring and analyzing domestic inflation in the Philippines, its dynamics and directions. Its focus has been to assess the appropriateness of monetary policy settings on the evolving inflation trend, rather on any point observation or estimate of next...

Keeping inflation at bay could be tricky
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Feb 2025 · 1 response

Last January 30, 2025, the media bannered that inflation may likely fall within the target of 2-4% for the next two years. This was based on the latest BSP survey of external forecasters as contained in its latest Monetary Policy Report. Mean inflation rate was quoted at 3.1% against the central ...

Anti-2025 budget group gathers force, to hold indignant rally January 31
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Jan 2025

At the end of December 2024, we wrote that the Philippines’ national budget for 2025 may not be able to achieve those lofty goals of promoting higher food production, arresting inflation, elevating the quality of education and skills training as well as public health. Despite the protestations co...

Food security emergency could risk inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Jan 2025

The beginning of 2025 does not seem to augur well for the Marcos government. It is under heavy siege for the so-called “sub-optimal” 2025 budget, for some, “unconscionable” budget. It is accused of corruption at all levels of government. Even retired generals and uniformed officials of the police...

National Budget for 2025: more than a zero-sum game
PHILIPPINES · Report · 31 Dec 2024

The Philippines’ P6.3 trillion national budget for 2025 may not succeed in delivering on the lofty social goals enunciated by President Marcos in his July 2024 State of the Nation Address for 2025. The allocations involving some realignment disfavored the priority sectors of education, health and...

Beating inflation: Doing beyond the usual stuff
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

During the weekend, the Philippines’ central bank, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) announced that the December inflation rate could have tipped the scale at 2.3% -3.1%, well within the 2%-4% target. If inflation hits the mid-point of this forecast at 2.7%, the actual whole-year inflation ra...

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