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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Losing confidence, losing steam
PHILIPPINES · Report · 12 Nov 2025

The Philippine economy slowed sharply in the third quarter of 2025, expanding only 4.0% year-on-year—the weakest growth since 2011 outside the pandemic years—due to weak industrial performance, falling investment, and eroding business confidence amid governance scandals. Services remained the mai...

Accommodating Growth Weakness: Balancing Support and Prudence
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

The Philippine economy slowed markedly in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by only 4.0%, down from 5.5% in the previous quarter and 5.2% a year ago—well below the government’s full-year target of 5.5–6.5%. This clear growth deceleration, coupled with steady headline inflation at 1.7% in both ...

2026 National Budget: the challenges of governance and fiscal consolidation
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines' 2026 P6.8-trillion national budget reflects the government’s effort to sustain social spending but exposes persistent weaknesses in fiscal governance. Despite reallocations from flood control to education, health, and food security, unprogrammed appropriations worth P250 billion...

Unmasking corruption and irregularities in public works: disasters, governance and growth
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Oct 2025

The Philippines again tops the 2025 World Risk Index as the world’s most disaster-prone nation—an outcome shaped as much by geography as by weak governance. Typhoons, floods, and earthquakes expose not only natural hazards but also institutional failures: substandard infrastructure, unfinished pr...

The One-Month Income Tax Holiday Proposal: relief or risk?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Oct 2025

In the middle of last week, Senator Erwin Tulfo filed Senate Bill No. 1446, seeking to suspend income-tax withholding for one month as financial relief for workers. While the measure would temporarily raise take-home pay and slightly boost consumption, it would cost the government an estimated ₱5...

A quick guide to the flood control anomalies in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · Report · 02 Oct 2025 · 1 response

The Philippine flood control scandal has exploded into one of the country’s largest corruption crises in decades, exposing the scale of wasted funds and institutional decay. Sparked by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s 2025 State of the Nation Address, the scandal revealed “ghost projects” — incom...

Dark clouds ahead
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025

Earlier assessments suggested that the post-pandemic slowdown in gross domestic capital formation (GDCF) could be constraining the Philippines’ productivity growth and long-term potential output. The latest data support this concern: from the first half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, GDCF gro...

Market and Business Backlash Over Flood Control Corruption
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

As the Philippines' House of Representatives and the Senate pursue public hearings on the anomalous flood control projects, one clear consequence has been a negative market reaction. Just before the weekend, the Philippine Stock Exchange Index slipped 0.75% (46 points) to close at 6,082.92, while...

Flood control projects: breach of social contract?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 09 Sep 2025

Between 2011 and 2025, the Philippines allocated nearly ₱1.9 trillion to flood control projects, yet flooding has worsened due to pervasive corruption. Investigations reveal that as little as 40 percent of project funds reach implementation, with the rest siphoned off by politicians, DPWH officia...

2nd quarter economic growth steady
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

The signs were known as early as June 2025 that economic growth in the Philippines would remain flat at the lower end of the revised GDP growth for the year 2025 of 5.5-6.5%. The average growth for the last five quarters stood at around 5.5-5.6%.   Source: Philippine Statistics Authority The Phil...

A fair deal?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Jul 2025

In our recent report on the Philippines’ negotiation with the US government on the level of reciprocal tariff, we argued that only its military and security value could be the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent visit to the US. And he should not squander it. Its small trade su...

"I thought I won!"
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jul 2025

From all indications, it is Manila's military and security value that was the only bargaining chip of President Marcos in his recent US visit. The country's trade value added is minuscule. Its exports to the US, mainly consisting of semi-con and other electronic products, have very close substitu...

Government downscales growth targets
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

The Philippine Government, through the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) a few days ago, reviewed and updated its medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for this year and the next two years 2026 and 2027. Given the increased uncertainties and recen...

Gunning for a risk-adjusted Israel-Iran war scenario
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jun 2025

Based on the recent assessment by his economic team, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr was reported to have “downplayed” the expected fallout from the Israel-Iran ballistic war compounded by the US bombing of three nuclear facilities in Iran. Manageable, he said, and “so far, there is no s...

BSP's rate cut justified by large monetary space
PHILIPPINES · Report · 23 Jun 2025

Some segments of business media were quite skeptical about the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) decision last Thursday. The Philippines’ monetary authorities opted to sustain for the second time a 25-basis-point reduction in its policy rate and issued virtual forward guidance that it is prepare...

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