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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A new office, a new man
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 22 Dec 2023

It’s all in President Bongbong Marcos’ Executive Order (EO) No. 49. The Order created the Office of the Special Assistant to the President for Investment and Economic Affairs (OSAPIEA) in the Office of the President. Its seven whereases virtually repudiated the current state of affairs in economi...

November inflation: BSP at a crossroads?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Dec 2023

Early last week, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) released the November 2023 headline inflation rate, and it must have caused early holiday rejoicing to both the Philippines’ National Government (NG) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). At 4.1%, last month’s inflation rate is the 3...

Self-rated poor families, a rising trend?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 02 Dec 2023

While the Philippines surpassed the dismal 2nd quarter 4.3% GDP growth with a 5.9% performance in the 3rdquarter, the results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey conducted from September 28-October 1, 2023 suggest the fruits of economic growth may not be spreading around evenly. Se...

Philippine macroeconomy: not exactly a Goldilocks scenario
PHILIPPINES · Report · 22 Nov 2023

The first three quarters' data on the Philippine output performance shows some recovery, although it would be difficult to achieve the lower end of the output target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Growth drivers are challenged on both the domestic and global fronts. Inflation for the first ten months r...

Public policy anchors inflation and growth
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2023

What macro data are to be released? The Philippine Statistics Authority is scheduled to release the actual October 2023 inflation, both headline and core, tomorrow November 7. As we write this In Brief in Rome, we are guided by the BSP’s own press statement last October 26 after its off-cycle mee...

Expect a BSP preemptive move...
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Issue: Monetary policy does not have to act because Philippines inflation is supply driven We are bothered by the latest statement of one of the economic managers of the Philippine government, National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Arsenio Balisacan. He was quoted in the bro...

MIF plot thickens
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Oct 2023

It’s not really a social blunder, that economic faux pas with enormous political fallout called the Maharlika Investment Fund (MIF) of the Philippines. It’s an economic faux pas because the Philippine authorities rammed through Congress the bill creating the Philippines’ first ever investment fun...

Maharlika Investment Fund critics—are they right?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Oct 2023

This In-Brief is a follow-up to our previous In-Brief of October 14, 2023. The two government financial institutions (GFIs), Land Bank of the Philippines (Landbank) and Development Bank of the Philippines (DBP) were reported to be seeking regulatory relief from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BS...

Maharlika Investment Fund, ahead of its time?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 13 Oct 2023

It is safe to say everybody in the Philippines recognizes that the economy needs foreign investments to help sustain the momentum of growth and upgrade its likelihood to escape the so-called "lower middle-income trap". But not too many would share the view that the Philippines’ Maharlika Investme...

Green light for monetary tightening in the Philippines
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 09 Oct 2023

As approved by the Philippines’ Land Transportation and Regulatory Board (LTFRB), a provisional increase of P1 took effect yesterday for public utility jeepneys nationwide. This brings the minimum jeepney fare from P12 to P13 for traditional type and from P14 to P15 for the modern version. LTFRB ...

Is inflation eroding popular support in the Philippines?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 05 Oct 2023

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr suffered a major decline in his approval rating as consumer prices in the Philippines weakened his base support. Some 65% of the 1,200 respondents in the September Pulse Asia Survey approved of his performance, but this was down 15 percentage points (ppts) from 80% i...

Signaling continuing pause?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 15 Sep 2023

BSP Governor Eli Remolona told reporters yesterday that he does not see the need to hike policy rates based solely on the spike in prices last month. Markets took the Governor’s statement as a signal that the Monetary Board will leave policy rates untouched when it meets next week. This view like...

August inflation back above 5%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Sep 2023

Analysts had expected a higher inflation rate for August but the actual number, 5.3%, exceeded the median 4.9% forecast. The relatively sharp 1.1% month-on-month increase in prices can be traced largely to the 2.4% rise in food prices, reflecting notably a 4.9% increase in rice prices, the first ...

Losing momentum
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 28 Aug 2023

We are nudging down our forecast for this year from 5.5% to 5.2%. We had expected consumption to slow down as pent-up demand eased and inflation erodes purchasing power, but the government’s considerable 2Q spending underperformance was a surprise. Also, here as elsewhere, Chinese tourism disappo...

Still on pause
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Aug 2023

As expected, the Monetary Board maintained policy settings for the third time, keeping the key overnight rate at 6.25%. In his first policy press conference, BSP Governor Eli Remolona reiterated that the authorities remain prepared to resume tightening if the need arises. After tweaking downwards...

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