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Another 100 bps cut from the CBRT
TURKEY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2022

The CBRT/MPC cut the policy rate (one-week repo) by another 100 bps to 12% (simple) today. While this wasn’t the consensus expectation, we are not terribly surprised, as we had given more than even odds to such a move (see last Sunday’s Tracker). The MPC statement is almost identical to the previ...

Main opposition plans to field joint lists in 87 districts
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Sep 2022 · 1 response

In as much as the title sounds tantalizingly obscure, this is potentially a ground-breaking plan, which will help the Table of Six (CHP, IYIP, SP, DP, DEVA, Gelecek) to gain more seats per vote. However, technically speaking it is difficult to implement. While I’m at it, I want to reiterate my vi...

Damned if you do, damned if you don’t
TURKEY · Report · 18 Sep 2022

President Erdogan came back from his meeting with Putin on the sides of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit with some gifts, though these may have fallen short of his expectations. Nonetheless, it is clear that Putin is ready to bankroll his pal Erdogan’s election campaign. The questions...

Kilicdaroglu gets 2 assists on his way to presidency
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Sep 2022 · 1 response

Being busy with the quarterly, I failed to reflect two important controversies in the opposition camp, which received a torrent of negative commentary regarding the durability of the main opposition alliance, now dubbed the Table of Six (ToS) and whether pro-Kurdish Right Movement party HDP would...

Taşıma suyla değirmen dönmez*
TURKEY · Forecast · 11 Sep 2022 · 4 responses

The key questions of near-term Turkish macroeconomics, which we’ve all been grappling with for some time, are unchanged. Can Ankara avoid another major “currency event” until May 2023 -- the date we now think the elections will be held -- and if it can, could it also tangibly turn the economy aro...

A temporary respite thanks to softer food inflation
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Sep 2022

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 1.5% in August (consensus, median: 2%), which, as far as our (slightly lower than median) forecast is concerned, owed a great deal to softer (unprocessed) food inflation in the month. Twelve-month CPI rate nevertheless rose slightly further to 80.2%, ...

What a mess...
TURKEY · Report · 04 Sep 2022 · 2 responses

The process of unraveling in AKP picked up a notch, as ex-gladio and fugitive mafia leader Sedat Peker returned to the social media limelight with ground-breaking bribery revelations. Why the UAE permitted him to tweet again is a question with important political implications, which we cover in t...

Growth picks up sequentially in Q2
TURKEY · Report · 31 Aug 2022

The Turkish economy grew by 7.6%, y/y, and 2.1%, q/q. While annual growth is broadly in line with expectations, quarterly or sequential growth (calendar- and seasonally-adjusted) presents a somewhat different picture than envisaged, with growth momentum picking up noticeably over the previous qua...

Dangerous liaisons
TURKEY · Report · 26 Aug 2022

As we approach the end of the summer, the Nation Alliance under the de facto leadership of CHP leader Kilicdaroglu has been leading in the polls, as well as in terms of controlling the narrative. The opposition strategy to win elections is firmly focused on forcing President Erdogan to commit ...

Fanning the flames
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised the markets --and us-- today by cutting the policy rate (one week repo) by 100 bps to 13%. There are a couple of revisions in the usual accompanying statement (link here), which, parenthetically, is about 100-150 words longer than the previous one (which is...

Rebels to rubles
TURKEY · Report · 15 Aug 2022 · 1 response

It is useful to watch the time-travel spy thriller “Tenet” (link here) before reading this brief note. Like in that controversial movie, the action in this essay moves from front to back and side-to-side. That is, it jumps from Erdogan’s new initiative to reach out to Syrian President Assad t...

From Russia, with love
TURKEY · Report · 08 Aug 2022 · 1 response

Over the last two weeks, news flow from Russia has been the subject of much attention and controversy in Turkey. Market attention on the “Russian news pipeline” began with an article in Bloomberg heralding cash transfers from Rosatom to Turkey for the construction expenses of Akkuyu nuclear react...

July inflation lower than expected, but no cause for cheer
TURKEY · Report · 03 Aug 2022

Consumer prices rose by 2.4%, m/m, in July, notably lower than the market consensus of around 3% and our slightly higher forecast. Our forecast error largely stemmed from higher inflation assumptions in transportation, housing and to a lesser extent, hospitality sub-categories. The 12-month rate ...

A political thriller and some other (more boring) stuff
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jul 2022

In this last Weekly Tracker before August recess, the politics author lays out, in Hollywood style fictional form, the roadmap to 2023 elections. The movie starts with the Big Reveal of how Kilicdaroglu and the Nation Alliance ended the Erdogan Era in May 2023 elections. It then goes back to Augu...

Inflation forecast raised, but (unsurprisingly) not enough
TURKEY · In Brief · 28 Jul 2022

The CBRT released the third Inflation Report of the year today. The Bank raised its yearend inflation forecast for 2022 by 17.6 pps to 60.4% (mid-point of 56.9%-63.9%) from 42.8% in the April Report, which is still visibly below consensus (e.g., CBRT Survey of just under 70% and our somewhat high...

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