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​Wiki- CHP
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Jan 2022

In our last Weekly, Yours Truly wrote an essay on internal criticism of the opposition Nation Alliance. While there are several shortcomings of the Alliance which is still a work in progress, lack of a common economic policy platform is the most glaring. While a six-party committee is currently w...

Turkey Covid Watch - January 24, 2022
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2022

We have decided to resume our biweekly Covid Watch (CW) because of the rising number of cases, which had stabilized at just under 20K around mid-November when we put the CW on holiday. The cases have begun to rise in late December, and have been fluctuating around 68K, on average, in the past cou...

Stable TL, unhinged everything else
TURKEY · Report · 23 Jan 2022 · 1 response

First batch of polls from January reveal a few percentage points of increases for Erdogan and AKP (not MHP). Much has been made about these polls, reading into them a permanent rebound in the fortunes of the President and his party. We respectfully disagree. The opposition is catching flak fro...

The MPC pauses, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jan 2022 · 1 response

The Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT kept the policy rate unchanged at 14% today, as expected, and as the Bank itself had signaled earlier. The statement continues to cast inflation largely as a transitory affair, related, most notably, to unhealthy pricing behavior in the F/X market -- which needs...

First thoughts on 2022
TURKEY · Forecast · 16 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

We deviate a little from our quarterly report format in this round because of the extremely uncertain context, sharing some preliminary thoughts and qualitative scenarios for 2022 instead. The ongoing “experiment” around the New Economic Model (NEM), which is unsustainable, in our view -- beca...

Webinar Replay: Turkey 2022 Outlook Webinar
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jan 2022

​​Cut through the uncertainty and understand what's ahead for Turkey in 2022. Visit our events calendar to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Murat Ucer and Atilla Yesilada discussing Turkey’s macro and political outlook.

2022: Something has to give
TURKEY · Report · 09 Jan 2022 · 2 responses

The politics section of the first Weekly report of the year is dedicated to establishing a road map for 2022, as well as going over our main scenario and predictions. President Erdogan and his AKP-MHP alliance didn’t receive a windfall in polls despite massive fiscal largesse, as rampant poverty ...

​The Palace strikes back
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2022

It has become cliché to say so, but tensions in politics escalated further, as Erdogan threatened protestors with violence, while press accounts report an indictment against CHP’s popular Istanbul mayor Mr. Ekrem Imamoglu. These strikes are Erdogan’s last bullets in the area of intimidating the o...

​2022 starter kit for Turkish Politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2022

While we were away, “business as usual” prevailed in Turkish politics.For those who really need a starter kit, “business” is discretionary government running amok, uncertainty rising by the day, as well as unbearable static electricity in the air. It sounds disingenuous to write a Market Brief, t...

​A big surge in inflation, more to come
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2022 · 1 response

Consumer prices rose by a much higher than expected 13.6%, m/m, in December, with 12-month CPI inflation hence finishing the year at 36.1%, up from 21.3% in November. It is worth highlighting that this is the highest consumer price inflation number since September 2002, and the largest miss (of t...

The last charts of 2021
TURKEY · Report · 30 Dec 2021 · 1 response

In this last econ report of 2021, we share a few pictures --and a bit of text-- on the latest (macro) state of affairs. Growth has remained stronger than envisaged throughout the year, but inflation has surged, too, likely exceeding 30% in December. We think an abrupt slowdown in economic acti...

​The indexation scheme: some tentative scenarios
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Dec 2021 · 3 responses

The Ministry of Treasury and Finance released a one-pager today (link here; in Turkish) providing a bit more detail on the planned F/X-indexation scheme. As we wrote yesterday, and it is now widely available in open media sources, the scheme aims to protect TL deposits against exchange rate-drive...

​Quick reactions to TL’s sharp appreciation
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

After weakening past the 18-mark against the USD, the TL appreciated dramatically after President Erdogan’s statements this evening (link here). Although markets are too illiquid to attribute too much significance to this very sharp movement, it appears to have been triggered by Erdogan’s announc...

​Heads Up: Anything can happen this week, but probably nothing will
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

On Friday, the main Turkish stock index collapsed suddenly, triggering two trading halts, as anecdotal evidence emerged of increased cash withdrawals from banks. It is difficult to imagine Turkish financial markets finding an equilibrium level this week, as first economy czar Mr. Nurettin Nebati,...

Done - and now what?
TURKEY · Report · 16 Dec 2021 · 2 responses

The CBRT/MPC reduced the policy rate (the weekly repo rate) by another 100 bps today to 14%, broadly in line with expectations (or shall we say, as feared?) bringing the cumulative cuts since September to 500 bps (see chart).

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