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Improved U.S.–Ukraine resource deal offers hope amid uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 May 2025

The U.S. and Ukraine have signed a resource deal. At the time of writing, the document had not yet been released, but numerous comments have emerged from individuals who have reviewed it. According to these comments, the document remains fairly general, but it outlines a well-balanced framework. ...

Trump’s peace deal: a fairy tale that ends in failure
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Apr 2025

Despite the hullabaloo over "peace deal" progress over the past month, nothing has fundamentally changed: Russia continues its intense missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and towns, and heavy fighting along the frontline persists. U.S. President Donald Trump's "peace by force" appr...

Mineral deal memorandum: agreement to talk about talks
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Apr 2025

Ukrainian authorities have announced the online signing of a Memorandum of Intent for a potential mineral deal with the U.S. The document is provided below. Apparently, officials needed something to show at least nominal progress—and this memorandum of intent, essentially a declaration to keep ta...

NBU holds prime rate unchanged at 15.5% amid eased FX pressure
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% at today’s meeting, contrary to our expectations. Despite inflation accelerating in March to +1.5% m/m and +14.6% y/y, the NBU noted it sees some signs of easing, though it acknowledged that inflationary expectations remain high. Most likely, t...

Kyiv signals election readiness in bid to counter Putin’s game
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2025

The Economist reported that Volodymyr Zelenskiy has instructed his team to prepare for elections as early as this summer. Allegedly, Parliament may lift Martial Law in May, following a potential ceasefire expected to begin on April 20th. Frankly, as of today, all of this sounds like a highly unre...

The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval ...

NBU raises prime rate to 15.5% amid high inflation, depreciation pressures, and growing tensions with U.S.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2025

The NBU Board has predictably raised the prime rate for the third time, increasing it by 1.0 ppt to 15.5%, effective March 7. Additionally, the NBU adjusted the 'working' rates for the banking system by 1 ppt. On top of that, it widened the spread by 1.0 ppt between the prime rate and the three-m...

Oval Office showdown: no peace deal in sight, Ukraine fights on amid tough road ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Mar 2025

I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfi...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

"Peace for Our Time": Trump talks to Putin—will history repeat itself?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

The ballet of peace negotiations is intensifying. Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, claiming that the Russian leader wants peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated that he does not believe Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders and ru...

Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025

The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...

NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...

Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...

The fog of war: understanding broader battlefield realities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2025

On the eve of Donald Trump’s inauguration, let me provide an overview of the current stance on the battlefield in Ukraine to offer a better picture of where we stand and the position from which the announced negotiations might commence. I am not a military expert—I’ve said that many times. What I...

Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...

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