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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Pivotal winter of the war
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Jan 2026

Throughout January, Russia has been bombarding Kyiv with missiles and drones, apparently hoping that Ukrainians—caught between prolonged subzero weather and shattered infrastructure—will lose the will to resist and pressure their leaders to accept surrender, perhaps wrapped in the promise of a “p...

Blackout 20/4: what’s next?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Jan 2026

Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities such as Odesa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro are experiencing blackouts, with only short periods when life briefly returns to normal before the next airstrike. All of this is happening against the backdrop of prolonged freezing weather, with temperatures around -10 to ...

Public opinion on national elections under a ceasefire
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jan 2026

While Kyiv is going through another blackout in freezing 10–15°C weather, it’s a good moment to add a few more brushstrokes to the broader picture of Ukrainian public sentiment. The peace-deal plan currently being discussed—and one that Donald Trump believes Vladimir Putin is still willing to acc...

Why Maduro’s fall is good news in Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2026

From a bird’s-eye view, the U.S. operation in Venezuela resembles what Russia attempted to do in Ukraine in 2022—and failed. Yet despite this parallel, the developments are viewed largely positively in Ukraine. Ukrainians have learned the hard way what real politics looks like, and we have no ill...

Dotty old man: smile & wave
UKRAINE · Report · 06 Jan 2026

Though the situation for Ukraine is quite tough, it’s hard not to smile at the latest wave of peace deal efforts. Russian President Vladimir Putin openly plays with U.S. President Donald Trump’s aspirations to win a Nobel Peace Prize, using a tease-and-retreat approach: maintaining the illusion o...

Zelenskiy Appoints Head of Military Intelligence as Chief of Staff
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Jan 2026

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy announced today that he has proposed General Kyryl Budanov, head of military intelligence, to take the post of his Chief of Staff, replacing the controversial Andriy Yermak. Budanov is very popular among Ukrainians due to his effectiveness against Russian forces. He ...

Public opinion on "peace deal": territorial concessions strongly rejected
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2025

We do not cover much the new wave of ‘peace deal’ efforts because Ukrainians are very skeptical of the process. Vladimir Putin’s goal is to dismantle the Ukrainian state, and his involvement in Trump’s "peace deal" talks is simply aimed at delaying a new wave of sanctions, driving a wedge between...

NBU still holds rate at 15.5% with devaluation in focus
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

Despite easing consumer inflation, the NBU Board again left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%, for the sixth time in a row. The NBU states explicitly that the stability of the national currency and the attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated financial instruments remain its priorities.  In November...

What does Yermak’s dismissal mean amid the new season of the peace deal’ series?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025

It took three weeks for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to grasp that the dismissal of his Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak was inevitable. Zelenskiy tried to maneuver to protect his comrade, but the searches the National Anti-Corruption Bureau conducted in Yermak’s apartment became the final trigger, ...

Unprecedented corruption scandal opens the gate for major reshuffle of top echelons
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Nov 2025

The huge corruption scandal within the narrow circle of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (referred to as Mindichgate after Timur Mindich, the central figure of the scandal and Zelenskiy’s business partner) is a major upheaval for both Ukraine’s domestic politics and its international standing amid t...

Trump’s turn on Russia sanctions marks a new stage in the war
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Oct 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump has finally taken a step toward tightening sanctions on Russia, after nine months of flip-flopping, by slapping sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil exporters, Lukoil and Rosneft. We are not overly enthusiastic about this move, since it’s quite possible that within a ...

NBU holds rate at 15.5% amid concerns over depreciation pressures
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

The NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15.5% for the fifth time in a row, to the dissatisfaction of the financial sector, which had expected the regulator to begin an easing cycle in Q4 2025, as outlined in its September communication. According to the press release, the NBU is concerned ...

Ukraine’s 2026 budget: social spending up, election calculations in play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2025

The Cabinet submitted the draft 2026 spending plan to parliament on September 15th, in accordance with the Budget Code. Central budget revenues are projected at UAH 2.9 trillion (29.1% of GDP), up by UAH 407.5 billion ($9.8 billion) from the current target. State expenditures are set at UAH 4.8 t...

Inflation slows, but NBU holds rate at 15.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Sep 2025

On September 11, the NBU Board, as expected, kept the prime rate unchanged at 15.5%. Inflation has been slowing for the past three months, reaching -0.2% m/m and +13.2% y/y in August. However, poor crop yields and persistent uncertainty with no progress in peace talks continue to weigh on the mon...

Don’t look up: watch the “peace deal”
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Sep 2025

It’s remarkable how world leaders skillfully avert their eyes from harsh realities, continuing to speak of some fanciful end to the war, and "security guarantees" that offer neither security nor guarantees. This diplomatic ballet feels especially detached from reality when viewed from Ukrainian c...

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