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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 13.0% amid faster inflation and FX volatility
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Jul 2024

Predictably, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 13.0% after the July 25th meeting. The accelerating inflation (+2.2% m/m and +4.8% y/y in June), substantial volatility in the FX market (with the hryvnia breaking the 42 per US dollar mark), and stagnant growth of hryvnia deposits made ...

Debt Restructuring Deal Reached
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2024

Ukrainian authorities and private bondholders have reached an agreement on debt restructuring. Details are already in all media outlets: nominal losses of 37%, bond repayments starting in 2029, and coupon payments from 2025 (starting with 1.75% in 2025). Sources informed about the negotiations co...

Missile strike on children's hospital reinforces resolve
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Jul 2024

I want to say a few words about Okhmatdyt Children's Hospital, which was targeted by Russian forces yesterday. This isn’t just another hospital; it’s a symbol for millions of Ukrainians. For nearly two and a half years, Vladimir Putin, with broad support from Russians, has been destroying numerou...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.0% amid increased confidence in financial inflows
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jun 2024

The NBU Board cut the prime rate once more by 0.5 ppts to 13.0%, effective June 14. This marks the third prime rate cut since the start of the year and the seventh decrease since July 2023, when the NBU began its easing cycle. In a press release, the NBU cited still-low inflation (+0.6% m/m and 3...

New mobilization law: shifting towards a militarized society
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Jun 2024

Ukraine is implementing new mobilization rules. The recruiting rules in 2022 were very lenient for a full-scale war of attrition. In the early days of the Russian invasion, Ukrainians mobilized voluntarily, and volunteers comprised the core of the army that defeated the Russians in 2022. However,...

NBU cuts prime rate to 13.5% following approval of US support package
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Apr 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 1.0 ppt to 13.5%, effective April 26. This decision was facilitated by a steady slowdown in consumer inflation (+0.5% m/m or +3.2% y/y in March), a $9.3 billion foreign currency inflow in March, and the recently approved $61 billion aid package from the US....

A burst of Russian brutality
UKRAINE · Report · 23 Apr 2024

Ukraine has since mid-March faced unprecedented air raids targeting energy infrastructure, unlike anything seen since the start of the war. In previous years, such as 2022-2023, Russian strategy focused on disrupting energy supplies, to cause nationwide blackouts. But now the focus has shifted to...

Collapse of the Western narrative
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Mar 2024

The gloomy sentiments of winter have transformed into a “we’ll cope with that” attitude. Ukrainian forces retreated from Avdiivka due to a shortage of ammunition, while the Russians employed new tactics of distant, massive barrages with guided aerial bombs. The retreat was painful, but the withdr...

NBU surprised with a minor prime rate cut by 0.5 ppt down to 14.5%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Mar 2024

The NBU Board reduced the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 14.5%, effective March 15. This decision came as a surprise to the market, especially following the January announcement that a minor prime rate cut might only be considered in the second half of 2024. The main justification for this unexpected m...

Dancing on the edge of an abyss
UKRAINE · Report · 16 Feb 2024

The last few months have been far from enjoyable. The anxious anticipation of decisions from the West regarding military supplies, coupled with persistent efforts by Russian friends to disrupt the process, paints a bleak picture. The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-...

Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15%, updates forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

As expected, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% on January 25th. Following a month of FX market turbulence, pausing rate cuts was a natural decision, particularly in light of the still-delayed financial support decisions from both the EU and the US for 2024. The press release sugg...

The mood has soured
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jan 2024

The mood has soured dramatically, amid discussions focusing on the West's indecisiveness, potential cuts in military supplies, delayed financing from the United States and looming tightened recruitment measures. Yet if we set aside the issue of soured sentiments, we can see that Ukraine's pos...

EU opens membership talks with Ukraine, history is being made right now
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

European leaders approved to open EU membership talks with Ukraine on December 14th, marking another historic day for the nation. This decision signifies that Ukraine's integration into the EU is not just a dream held by a few but is actively supported by the political leaders of EU member states...

NBU predictably cuts prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%, future uncertain
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

This time, the decision of the monetary authorities aligned with expectations. On December 14th, the NBU Board predictably reduced the prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%. Following this, the "working" rates were also cut by 1 ppt: the rate for overnight deposit certificates was lowered to 15%, three-mont...

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