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Invasion halted, economy damaged, de-occupation underway
UKRAINE · Report · 07 Sep 2022

A half a year has passed since the start of the unprovoked full-fledged Russian aggression. Ukrainian armed forces, backed by Ukrainian society and extensive support from the civilized world, managed to stop the invasion across the board. By midsummer the frontline had stabilized, and the Ukrai...

Russians attack Odessa seaport promptly after Istanbul grain exports deal signed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jul 2022

Yesterday, all world media heralded a deal on the de-blockade of Ukrainian grain exports via Black Sea ports signed in Istanbul. At least 15 mmt of grain (of near $6 bln value) are locked in the country from the harvest of 2021. And a new grain harvest is underway. The deal looked really strange ...

The NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 25% and adjusts the hryvnia exchange rate
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 Jul 2022

Yesterday, on July 21 the NBU Board informed on its decision to keep prime rate unchanged at 25%. High inflation (21.5% y/y in June with a 30% perspective in 2022), substantially damaged economy by Russian aggression (the NBU estimate a near 40% GDP plunge in 2Q 2022), hryvnia printing for the ne...

Zelenskiy removes the Head of Secret Service and Chief Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Jul 2022

Yesterday, late in the night President Volodymyr Zelenskiy informed that he removed the Head of Secret Bureau of Ukraine (SBU) Ivan Bakanov and the Chief Prosecutor Iryna Venediktova. In the case of Bakanov, the formal reasoning for his displacement were the failures defending the South from Russ...

Getting prepared to clean the South
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 Jul 2022

The war again became very tough for Russians over the recent weeks. In fact, the war was tough for Kremlin from the very beginning but, at least, the Russians managed to make modest progress in Donbass when applying "scorched earth" tactics. Just to remind you, Russian forces managed to reach an ...

The 4th month of the war: working hard on degrading Russian military ability
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jun 2022

 Russians intensified missile attacks over the recent days. Near 40-50 missile strikes reported yesterday and 12 missiles attacks today in the morning. At least four hit the central area of Kyiv city with apartment blocks seriously damaged. More missile strikes – is a clear sign that something go...

The pendulum has (already) swung
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jun 2022

Over the recent weeks military experts and journalists have suddenly turned quite optimistic on developments at the front. Fights are still extremely tough, and casualties on Ukrainian side are very high. Nevertheless, all people following the military actions closely have become positive after m...

The NBU hikes prime rate up to 25% amid aggravating economic problems
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Jun 2022

The NBU Board decided to hike prime rate by 15 ppt up to 25%. The decision had a kind of shocking impression on everyone. We still have scarce information on what is happening with the economy (no reports on industrial output, retail trade, agro-production, customs statistics) and this hike was a...

Desperately bloody fights for Luhansk region
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 May 2022

Over the last two weeks we observed the most desperate fights in Luhansk region (North part of Donbas). Russian leadership apparently disappointed with 'no result' by May 9th amid failed ‘big battle for Donbas’ decided to get at least something in this war. They defined, as we already see, occupa...

Ukrainian forces started counter-offensive amid inflowing modern weapons
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 May 2022

Two days till the May 9th, Victory Day – a sacred day for USSR-longing inhabitants of Russia. Now we can say it for sure, ‘the big battle for Donbas’ turned out to be one more failure for Russian army. Despite substantial concentration of forces and armors at the East, the Russians managed to get...

A turning point of the war: Ramstein meeting and Lend-lease act
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Apr 2022

The second week of the "big battle" over Donbas is coming to its end. From all sides we have reports that fighting is very tough across the board. The Russians keep throwing all their forces in frontal attacks on Ukrainian positions. In some sections of the front they are making progress (see map...

The 3rd day of decisive battle for Donbas: no great progress in offensive observed
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Apr 2022

The big battle for Donbas was "officially" started on Monday, April 18, when President Volodymyr Zelenskiy reported in public that fighting has intensified. In fact, the intense efforts of Russians to push the frontline in the East and South have not eased over the last two weeks. However, intens...

The 47th day of war: the big battle over Donbas "slips"
UKRAINE · In Brief · 11 Apr 2022

We are living in anticipation of the decisive battle over Donbas. The Russians totally withdrew from the North and the North-East. Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy are returning to peaceful life, if this phrase is applicable in nowadays. At the same time Russians are accumulating forces in Donbas and in the...

The 39th day of war: mass grave of executed civilians in Bucha
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Apr 2022

Shock and fury. Russians withdrew from Bucha and Hostomel, two satellites of Kyiv which faced the hottest fights in the battle for Kyiv. But little joy was derived from this withdrawal. The horrors Ukrainian soldiers saw when they entered the towns would make you shudder. Corpses of civilians wit...

The war becomes protracted amid growing support of the war in Russian society
UKRAINE · In Brief · 31 Mar 2022

The 36th day of war. We do not see any big changes at the front except the continued reallocation of Russian forces to Donbas and to the South East of Ukraine. To the North of Kyiv a big group of the Russian military is staying in operational encirclement. The Russians also withdrew from the Nort...