GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Ukraine

I expected Trump’s peace initiative to fail at some stage, but the way it unfolded in the Oval Office was particularly harsh. It took me some time to gather my thoughts and form a vision of how things might develop from here. So, firstly, what happened? Donald Trump ran into serious trouble fulfi...

Trump’s quick fixes hit a wall

UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump appears disappointed and irritated that his fast-track approach to brokering a Russia-Ukraine peace deal has stalled from the start. It’s evident that the new U.S. administration lacks a strategic plan for countering Russian aggression. Instead, the strategy seems to i...

"Peace for Our Time": Trump talks to Putin—will history repeat itself?

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Feb 2025

The ballet of peace negotiations is intensifying. Donald Trump spoke with Vladimir Putin, claiming that the Russian leader wants peace in Ukraine. Meanwhile, newly appointed U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly stated that he does not believe Ukraine will regain its 2014 borders and ru...

Inflation report: NBU sidesteps discussion on 2025’s potential defining event

UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2025

The NBU released its latest inflation report last Friday and held an expert discussion on the document today. The best way to describe the report would be ‘indistinct.’ The inflation forecast was revised upward to +8.4% YTD in 2025 (from the previously projected 6.9%), while the GDP growth foreca...

NBU Raises Prime Rate to 14.5%, Signals Further Hikes Ahead

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate again by 1.0 ppt to 14.5%, effective January 24. The 'working' rates have also been adjusted: the overnight deposit certificate rate increased to 14.5% (from 13.5%), the three-month deposit certificate rate rose to 17.0% (from 16.0%), and the refinancing ra...

Trump slaps Putin in the face with a proposal to get a favor

UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Jan 2025

That’s a nice way to kick off negotiations. Whether intentionally or not, Donald Trump’s post landed a direct blow to the very core of Russist ideology. For years, Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has cultivated a "victory cult" in Russian society, glorifying May 9th, Victory Day, and claiming public...

Fresh polls: sentiments on territorial concessions evolve amid peace deal discourse

UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jan 2025

The world is abuzz with discussions about President-elect Donald Trump's territorial claims on Greenland and Canada. Meanwhile, I’d like to share some new poll results reflecting Ukrainian sentiments, which seem particularly significant as we approach the upcoming negotiations after January 20. F...

A train with waste paper: Zelenskiy speaks plainly on security guarantees in Lex Fridman interview

UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Jan 2025

Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s interview with Lex Fridman is in the spotlight. The Ukrainian president may have his flaws, but there’s no denying his exceptional communication skills. His conversation with Lex Fridman was a significant media effort aimed at engaging Western audiences. Even after three yea...

The final chapter for Russian gas transit through Ukraine?

UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Dec 2024

On January 1, 2025, the 5-year gas transit contract between Naftogaz and Gazprom is set to expire. Ukrainian authorities are resolute in their decision to end this unusual business arrangement with an aggressor actively seeking to destroy the country. Predictably, the move has sparked outrage fro...

Korean or Finland scenario for Ukraine? No Gordian knot solution in sight.

UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Dec 2024

Foreign Affairs recently published an excellent article titled 'A Pathway to Peace in Ukraine' by Samuel Charap. I would like to react to it. The comment by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that 'a ceasefire is a road to nowhere' aligns closely with the perspective Samuel Charap, a Distingu...

Financial stability report: signals of confidence amid war and uncertainty

UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Dec 2024

If you’re looking for a bit of optimism about Ukraine, you should take a look at the year-end Financial Stability Report released by the NBU yesterday. The monetary authorities are exuding optimism about the financial health of the banking system, reporting that the NBU’s Financial Stress Index h...

Unless Gandalf casts a spell, peace prospects look dim

UKRAINE · Report · 17 Dec 2024

Two key questions are on the agenda: what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose as a peace deal, and what the response will be if the proposed solution sacrifices Ukraine’s sovereignty. Any plan requiring Ukraine to recognize Russian-occupied territories or to compromise its sovereignty ...

Easing cycle ends: NBU raises prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Dec 2024

The NBU Board has raised the prime rate by 0.5 ppt to 13.5%, effective December 13, marking the end of the easing cycle that began in July 2023. The primary reason for this decision was the acceleration of consumer inflation, which exceeded the 10% threshold (+1.9% m/m and +11.2% y/y in November)...

Permission for limited long-range missile strikes vs. global security breakdown

UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Nov 2024

On Sunday morning, November 17, we received an alert that nearly 17 Russian strategic bombers were in the air preparing to launch dozens of cruise missiles. Such a big number of strategic bombers approaching launch sites usually means that hypersonic ballistic missile Kynzhal carriers Mig-31 will...

Euphoria Over Trump’s Peace Promise Seems Premature

UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Nov 2024

In early 2022, European leaders, as well as the U.S., assumed that the occupation of Ukraine was imminent. Germany's Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner, told the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin that Russia would occupy Ukraine within hours. All embassies were evacuated from Kyiv in February 20...