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Zelenskiy dismissed Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi
UKRAINE · In Brief · 08 Feb 2024

The tension between President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been simmering for quite some time and became notably public after the problematic counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. Zelenskiy attempted to justify his dissatisfaction with Zaluzhnyi, citing modes...

NBU keeps prime rate unchanged at 15%, updates forecast
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Jan 2024

As expected, the NBU Board left the prime rate unchanged at 15% on January 25th. Following a month of FX market turbulence, pausing rate cuts was a natural decision, particularly in light of the still-delayed financial support decisions from both the EU and the US for 2024. The press release sugg...

The mood has soured
UKRAINE · Report · 09 Jan 2024

The mood has soured dramatically, amid discussions focusing on the West's indecisiveness, potential cuts in military supplies, delayed financing from the United States and looming tightened recruitment measures. Yet if we set aside the issue of soured sentiments, we can see that Ukraine's pos...

EU opens membership talks with Ukraine, history is being made right now
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Dec 2023

European leaders approved to open EU membership talks with Ukraine on December 14th, marking another historic day for the nation. This decision signifies that Ukraine's integration into the EU is not just a dream held by a few but is actively supported by the political leaders of EU member states...

NBU predictably cuts prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%, future uncertain
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2023

This time, the decision of the monetary authorities aligned with expectations. On December 14th, the NBU Board predictably reduced the prime rate by 1 ppt to 15%. Following this, the "working" rates were also cut by 1 ppt: the rate for overnight deposit certificates was lowered to 15%, three-mont...

Divergent views on how the war might end
UKRAINE · Report · 29 Nov 2023

The lack of significant land gains in Ukraine's 2023 summer counter-offensive has sparked intensive discussions about a potential stalemate in the war, and the West's vision for its conclusion. General Valery Zaluzhny's essay in The Economist, widely interpreted as an admission that the front has...

Spending plan 2024 approved with 20.6% GDP deficit
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Nov 2023

On November 9th, the Verkhovna Rada approved the 2024 spending plan, which saw only modest changes from the initial budget proposed in September. The central budget's revenues are set at UAH 1.77 trillion, with expenditures at UAH 3.36 trillion, leading to a deficit of UAH 1.57 trillion, or 20.6%...

Avdiivka offensive amid depleted Russian artillery
UKRAINE · Report · 31 Oct 2023

Despite no significant territorial gains being reported, the intensity of the fighting escalated along all fronts throughout September and October. Ukrainian forces continued their push south toward Tokmak, and have been gradually encircling the ruins of Bakhmut. However, since the beginning of O...

NBU slashes prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, keeps "working" rates steady
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2023

Today, on October 26th, the NBU Board made an unexpected decision, slashing the prime rate by 4 ppt to 16%, effective from October 27th. While the market did anticipate a rate cut, analysts had predicted a more modest 2 ppt reduction. Despite the significant cut in the prime rate, the NBU essenti...

The NBU Switches to Controlled Fluctuation FX Regime
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 Oct 2023

The NBU has announced a controlled fluctuation FX regime beginning October 3rd, abandoning the fixed exchange rate regime that had been in place since the full-fledged Russian invasion in February 2022. While the move was anticipated, the timing was unpredictable, catching observers by surprise. ...

Unlocking the grain corridor
UKRAINE · Report · 27 Sep 2023

Provisional reports suggest that the main Russian defense line has been breached to the north of Tokmak. Fighting continues, but the redeployment of competent Russian paratrooper divisions from other front sectors to the Tokmak area clearly signifies a crisis there. Meanwhile, in sectors stripped...

European Commission considers opening accession talks with Ukraine: a major boost for the embattled nation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Sep 2023

Bloomberg has reported that the European Commission is likely to recommend opening accession negotiations with Ukraine by the end of 2023. If this information is confirmed, it will be exceptionally positive news and a significant boost for Ukraine. Although Ukraine was granted candidate status in...

Spending plan 2024: assuming a narrower deficit amid dominating uncertainty
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Sep 2023

On September 15, the Cabinet submitted the draft for the 2024 spending plan to the parliament. The design of the 2024 spending plan closely mirrors what we observed last year. The authorities anticipate active military action continuing until mid-2024, leading to a planned reduction in defense sp...

The NBU cuts the prime rate by an extra 2 ppt down to 20%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023

In August, with inflation easing to +8.6% y/y, strong gross international reserves at $40.4 billion (equivalent to 5.4 months of future imports), and a relatively stable FX market, all signs indicated that the NBU Board would cut the prime rate again in September. Experts had anticipated a 2 ppt ...

President Zelenskiy Replaces Minister of Defense to Ease Tensions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Sep 2023

The news about the replacement of Minister of Defense Oleksiy Reznikov dominated the headlines yesterday. This serves as an excellent example of how the reputation of a corrupt country can have negative repercussions at the most inopportune times. Since the beginning of 2023, Oleksiy Reznikov has...

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