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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...

Two signs of sanity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 20, after four weeks of agonizing negotiations, the opposition agreed on a single candidate supported by all the Unitary Platform (PUD) parties one day before the deadline for modifying endorsements to be visible on the ballot. The candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, registered by PUD...

GL 44a: Case-by-case flexibility, with opacity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024 · 1 response

General License 44a (GL 44a), dated April 17, 2024, requires that oil and gas activities not expressly subject to General Licenses 41 (Chevron) and 8m (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford) be granted special licenses by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Co...

Tax collections and weak demand held March inflation steady
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

Inflation held steady at 1.2 percent in March. While, starting in the third week of March, bolivar depreciation against the dollar and a transportation fare hike pushed up on inflation, and monetary expansion caused by domestic public outlays expanded by 21 percent compared with 9 percent in Febr...

What could happen if GL 44 expires on April 18?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

The possible expiration of General License 44 (GL 44) generates uncertainty. Venezuela's oil production and exports have been increasing since 2022 under licenses 41 and 44 . Both allow selling oil in Venezuela's natural markets (the US and Europe) at better prices, with more efficient collectio...

A storm of uncertainties
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The government did not allow Machado's candidacy or Corina Yoris, her designated substitute. After the deadline for nominations had expired, the National Electoral Council (CNE) admitted the "symbolic" candidacy of Dr. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat with no party ties, under the car...

Machado names substitute candidate
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Maria Corina Machado waited till March 22, when the nomination period was already under way, to appoint Corina Yoris as her replacement candidate, stating that she embodies perfect opposition unity. During the press conference, Yoris had support from the parties grouped under the Unitary Platform...

Venezuela Webinar Replay: Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Will General License 44 be renewed or reformed, or will it simply expire? What is the oil sector outlook? How is the opposition getting ready for the July presidential elections? How will the Essequibo conflict evolve in the coming months? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webina...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Get insight into Venezuela's political and macro outlook scenarios with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Venezuela: Assessing Risks and Opportunities".

The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...

The risk of non-renewal increases
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...

Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024

In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...

In the midst of a storm
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2024

In the midst of a storm Given the political disqualification of María Corina Machado using a Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) judgment that violates all principles of due process and breaches provision 3.11 of the Barbados Agreement, the U.S. State Department reacted by suspending General License 4...

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