GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

After nearly four months in office, the Rodríguez group has brought gain: stability in the immediate political environment, legal reforms to reshape the business climate for the oil and mining sectors, and progress toward a consensus on labor reform. These gains coexist, however, with persistent ...

The IMF as a starting point

VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Apr 2026

The formal restoration of relations between Venezuela and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank on April 16, 2026 marks an inflection point in the country's economic trajectory. Relations had been suspended in March 2019 over issues related to the recognition of Venezuela's gov...

Disinflation with friction

VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Apr 2026

Thanks to record foreign exchange sales of $1.047 billion, in March 2026, inflation slowed to 13.1 percent from 14.6 percent in February. The strong forex sales helped ease exchange rate pressures and narrow the gap between the official and market rates to 40.8 percent. But the increase in the In...

Managed calm

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2026

It is becoming clear that the Trump administration’s primary objective for Venezuela is geopolitical stability. Stabilization is advancing, although not necessarily as a prelude to democratization. What is emerging is a mutually convenient arrangement between Washington and Rodríguez that could b...

The transition needs an anchor

VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2026

In February 2026, monthly inflation fell to 13 percent from January’s 32 percent. Driving this slowdown were fiscal tightening and more generous foreign exchange interventions. The doubling of the amount of dollars auctioned and the seasonal rise in tax collection made it possible to temporarily ...

A Turning Point

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 16 Mar 2026

The events of January 3, 2026 have served as a positive shock. The prospect of higher oil revenues and the gradual easing of sanctions temporarily stabilized the exchange-rate market and revived investor interest in oil, gas, and mining. That stabilizing effect is now fading. The foreign-exchange...

The ups and downs of the transition

VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2026

Two months after the January 3 break, Venezuela’s transition has unfolded without the collapse many expected, and Rodríguez’s government has delivered on its two most visible commitments: Hydrocarbons Law reform and the Amnesty Law. While both are tangible signals of political action, each does c...

Inflation under guardianship

VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Inflation rebounded to 32 percent in January 2026 amid sharp forex volatility, reflecting the market rate surge in the first two weeks of the month. On January 7, the forex gap peaked at 179 percent before closing the month at 39 percent on announcements that outlined a more favorable outlook for...

A window of opportunity

VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Venezuela is entering a phase of political redefinition following the violent outcome of January 3, 2026. Delcy Rodríguez, now interim president under the tutelage of the Trump administration, has laid out a three-stage plan: stabilization, reconstruction (and reconciliation), and democratic tran...

Webinar replay - Venezuela: What's next?

VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2026

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing what's next for Venezuela. The country is at a pivotal moment, marked by both uncertainty and opportunity. With tensions involving U.S. interests, Venezuelan sovereignty, shifting oil market prospects and ...

Pivoting to stabilization

VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Venezuela has entered an abrupt political transition that fundamentally reshapes the economic outlook for 2026-2027. Expectations shifted from a near-certain return to hyperinflation and recession toward a stabilization scenario, driven by access to roughly $10-12 billion in previously unanticipa...

Oil and stability first. Democratic transition later

VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Trump transformed what appeared to be a "liberation" operation into an operation to replace authoritarian leadership and establish an economy under tutelage. His goal is to ensure U.S. access to oil and maintain stability in Venezuela. Operation "Absolute Resolve" concluded with Maduro and his...

War of attrition with a focus on oil

VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2025

After four months of naval deployment with no tangible results, Trump’s strategy toward Venezuela has shifted from military posturing to economic strangulation. By announcing a “total blockade” on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, seizing the tanker Skipper on December 10, slapping sanc...

Implications of the oil logistics paralysis

VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2025

Loading and unloading operations have continued after the seizure of the Skipper and Trump's announcement of a blockade on sanctioned vessels. Available information is disperse and diverse. It includes ships that chose to return without reaching Venezuela, others that began unloading diluents...

Unanchored: Venezuela returns to hyperinflation territory

VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2025

Inflation rebounds to 20 percent in December, driven by simultaneous acceleration in the official and parallel exchange rates. Although fiscal stimulus typically eases at year-end, limited forex supply—amid weak oil prices and high external geopolitical volatility—reduces the central bank’s room ...