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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The transition needs an anchor
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Mar 2026

In February 2026, monthly inflation fell to 13 percent from January’s 32 percent. Driving this slowdown were fiscal tightening and more generous foreign exchange interventions. The doubling of the amount of dollars auctioned and the seasonal rise in tax collection made it possible to temporarily ...

A Turning Point
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 16 Mar 2026

The events of January 3, 2026 have served as a positive shock. The prospect of higher oil revenues and the gradual easing of sanctions temporarily stabilized the exchange-rate market and revived investor interest in oil, gas, and mining. That stabilizing effect is now fading. The foreign-exchange...

The ups and downs of the transition
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2026

Two months after the January 3 break, Venezuela’s transition has unfolded without the collapse many expected, and Rodríguez’s government has delivered on its two most visible commitments: Hydrocarbons Law reform and the Amnesty Law. While both are tangible signals of political action, each does c...

Inflation under guardianship
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Inflation rebounded to 32 percent in January 2026 amid sharp forex volatility, reflecting the market rate surge in the first two weeks of the month. On January 7, the forex gap peaked at 179 percent before closing the month at 39 percent on announcements that outlined a more favorable outlook for...

A window of opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Venezuela is entering a phase of political redefinition following the violent outcome of January 3, 2026. Delcy Rodríguez, now interim president under the tutelage of the Trump administration, has laid out a three-stage plan: stabilization, reconstruction (and reconciliation), and democratic tran...

Webinar replay - Venezuela: What's next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2026

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing what's next for Venezuela. The country is at a pivotal moment, marked by both uncertainty and opportunity. With tensions involving U.S. interests, Venezuelan sovereignty, shifting oil market prospects and ...

Pivoting to stabilization
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Venezuela has entered an abrupt political transition that fundamentally reshapes the economic outlook for 2026-2027. Expectations shifted from a near-certain return to hyperinflation and recession toward a stabilization scenario, driven by access to roughly $10-12 billion in previously unanticipa...

Oil and stability first. Democratic transition later
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Jan 2026 · 1 response

Trump transformed what appeared to be a "liberation" operation into an operation to replace authoritarian leadership and establish an economy under tutelage. His goal is to ensure U.S. access to oil and maintain stability in Venezuela. Operation "Absolute Resolve" concluded with Maduro and his...

War of attrition with a focus on oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2025

After four months of naval deployment with no tangible results, Trump’s strategy toward Venezuela has shifted from military posturing to economic strangulation. By announcing a “total blockade” on sanctioned vessels carrying Venezuelan oil, seizing the tanker Skipper on December 10, slapping sanc...

Implications of the oil logistics paralysis
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Dec 2025

Loading and unloading operations have continued after the seizure of the Skipper and Trump's announcement of a blockade on sanctioned vessels. Available information is disperse and diverse. It includes ships that chose to return without reaching Venezuela, others that began unloading diluents...

Unanchored: Venezuela returns to hyperinflation territory
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2025

Inflation rebounds to 20 percent in December, driven by simultaneous acceleration in the official and parallel exchange rates. Although fiscal stimulus typically eases at year-end, limited forex supply—amid weak oil prices and high external geopolitical volatility—reduces the central bank’s room ...

Economic blockade instead of invasion?
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

The seizure of the sanctioned tanker Skipper heralds the possibility of a military-backed economic blockade aimed at achieving regime change in Venezuela through economic suffocation rather than military intervention. According to various sources, the Skipper was carrying 1.1 million barrels o...

Turning point or tightening?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 11 Dec 2025

Venezuela is entering a new cycle of high macroeconomic uncertainty, caught between increasingly tight sanctions and narrowing room for policy maneuver. This report projects economic performance for 2025–2027 under the assumption that the current sanctions regime will remain in place, while recog...

Venezuela: Between Pressure and Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Dec 2025

So far, the Trump administration has built a propaganda—or psyops—apparatus that raises pressure on Caracas without risking open military action. It follows the logic of Latin American soap operas: each episode ends on a cliffhanger. The question remains: what does it hope to achieve? The narr...

USDT, OFAC and inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2025 · 1 response

We revise down our exchange rate and inflation forecasts for 2025 and present two scenarios for 2026, depending on whether or not U.S. OFAC sanctions on Venezuela are tightened. For November–December 2025, we assume that USDT supply expansion will continue, market acceptance of such will gradu...

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