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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Well-organized Chavista minority beats disorganized majority opposition
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Nov 2021

As we had forecast, the Maduro coalition took most of the seats under contention despite its having won a minority of the votes: with only 46% of the votes, it obtained 19 of 24 governorships and 205 of 335 mayorships. More important is what these elections tell the opposition about the relative ...

Disinflation surprises
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Nov 2021

Thanks to aggressive central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market and an acceleration in public outlays milder than we had expected, October’s monthly inflation rate came in at 9 percent. This marks a slowdown from September’s 10 percent and was lower than the 15-percent rate we had p...

The origins and consequences of opposition splinters
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Nov 2021

The question as to whether to boycott elections has caused a progressive splintering of the opposition. Some individuals and groups bent on participating in elections officially break off from their parties or coalitions to do so; others simply participate in disregard for their parties’ official...

2021–2022 forecast: more benign scenario won’t end hardship
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 28 Oct 2021

We continue to see severe hardship ahead for most Venezuelans. Nonetheless, our revised forecast scenario is slightly more benign than that of three months ago. We revise up our outlook for growth. We now see a 2.5 percent pace of expansion for 2021, up from our earlier projection of 0.8 perc...

All roads lead to Mexico but no one travels them
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Oct 2021

A new round of negotiations was scheduled to begin in Mexico tomorrow, October 17. At the time of writing, the Maduro government announced it suspends negotiations in protest against Alex Saab’s extradition to the United States by Cape Verde on money laundering charges. It’s too soon to tell how ...

Revised inflation outlook
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2021

In September, because of ample cash dollar supplies by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) throughout the month, the bolivar strengthened to an exchange rate where a dollar fetched fewer than four bolivars. Consumer prices advanced by a mere 10 percent, half the speed we had previously forecast. ...

No news is... no news
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2021

The communiqué issued in Mexico on September 27, 2021, indicates the parties' willingness to continue negotiating and make the negotiations more inclusive through a consultation and participation mechanism involving political and social, national and international, actors. The government swiftly ...

Quick update on the Mexico talks
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 Sep 2021

Maduro: let’s talk about SDRs In response to a proposal put forth by the Maduro government, the agenda for the September 24–27 session of the Mexico talks will include the issue of access to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) recently assigned to Venezuela. By pro...

Opposition discord and its consequences
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Sep 2021

With only two months remaining before election day, the opposition has failed not only to finish choosing all its candidates but also to practice consistent messaging as to whether it will even take part in elections. Moreover, it is neglecting the task of readying itself to be able to detect, do...

Despacito
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2021

Upon conclusion of the second round of talks in Mexico City on September 6, the Maduro government and the Venezuelan Unitary Platform delegations issued a joint communiqué reporting the first two partial agreements and setting the agenda for the next round, scheduled for September 24-27. The meet...

Higher inflation in Q4 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Sep 2021

In August, inflation decelerated to 14% from the July pace of 18 percent. At the same time, the dollar lost momentum against the bolivar, appreciating only 3 percent. This marks a slowdown from the 24 percent jump seen the month before. Year on year, August inflation was 1,365 percent, down f...

It’s encouraging
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Aug 2021

It’s encouraging that, according to the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the Venezuelan government and the opposition Unity Platform on August 13 in Mexico City, the goal of the Norway-mediated talks will be to set down new rules of the political game consistent with the Constitution. Th...

The Refidomsa deal
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Aug 2021

On August 19, the government of the Dominican Republic announced the purchase of 49 percent of the shares of the Dominican Petroleum Refinery (Refidomsa) held by PDV Caribe (a Pdvsa subsidiary) for €74 million ($88 million), $43 million less than what PDV Caribe paid in 2010 ($131 million). The D...

Campaign season spending propels inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2021

In July, the rate of inflation doubled to 18 percent from its June 9 percent. We had forecast only 11 percent, having failed to give due weight to the PSUV primary elections. Campaigning sparked increases in public expenditure, which in turn boosted the demand for dollars. The central bank reacte...

The straw that broke the camel's back
VENEZUELA · Report · 06 Aug 2021

Last week, TotalEnergies and Equinor announced their decision to withdraw from the Petrocedeño joint venture, the most important Venezuelan crude upgrader, capable of processing 190,000 barrels a day of extra-heavy crude and producing 170,000 barrels of synthetic crude of 30o API. PDVSA is now th...

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