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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

One for one … so far
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The political dynamics in Venezuela remain largely unchanged. Nicolás Maduro succeeded in being sworn in on January 10 but fell short of legitimizing his leadership. María Corina Machado bolstered her standing with a high-profile appearance at a January 9 rally that garnered extensive internation...

Triple-digit inflation risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Jan 2025

Uncertainty as to politics and oil in 2025 will cause exchange rates and consumer prices to accelerate. We present two scenarios for 2025. Both assume that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will maintain a controlled crawling peg for the official exchange rate and leverage the increased dema...

Rule of (martial) law
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2024

En route to Maduro’s inauguration on 10 January 2025, the government is preparing for possible violence by passing draconian laws that legalize repression and virtually eliminate all space for public protest. It’s setting up permanent martial law. A recent exchange of moderating gestures betwe...

Inflation in 2025 will hinge on oil prices
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Dec 2024

Our inflation and exchange rate forecasts for the remainder of 2024 and for 2025 rest on the assumption that the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will hold to its crawling peg regime that began in mid-October. It will not revert to an exchange rate peg. Restrictive fiscal and monetary policies ...

The Hardest Thing
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Dec 2024

The hardest thing to forecast today is in what kind of climate Maduro’s apparently inevitable inauguration takes place on January 10. The state security apparatus is on high alert, and tensions are rising, as Nicolás Maduro's swearing-in ceremony approaches. Donald Trump’s and Marco Rub...

Consequences of a failed policy
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2024

The Venezuelan authorities’ strategy of curbing inflation by pegging the official exchange rate by mid-October had opened up a gap between the official and parallel rates so wide that it forced the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) to loosen the official rate. Subsequently, inflation began accelera...

Time will tell
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2024

Trump's view of the world is the same as it was during the years of his first presidency. He also maintains his assertively unilateralist and transactional approach to foreign policy. Venezuela is not high on his international agenda. It enters it tangentially because of the deportation of mig...

Central bank adopts a (de facto) crawling peg
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

We have revised up our inflation and exchange rate projections following the October breakdown of the exchange rate peg and the subsequent volatility and uncertainty in the foreign exchange market. We foresee that the central bank will have the necessary resources to sustain a gradual devaluat...

On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...

The exchange rate anchor finally gave in
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Oct 2024

On Friday, October 11, the unsustainability of the policy of anchoring the official exchange rate materialized. The BCV sold $30 million in an “auction” in which it gave signals about the price it was looking for and took the rate to 39.75 bolivars per dollar, marking an increase of 3 percent in ...

A complex landscape
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 09 Oct 2024 · 1 response

The 2024-2025 outlook is strongly influenced by the July 28, 2024 events. They raised the risk of diplomatic and economic isolation, imposed a brake on growth and disinflation, and increased the likelihood of an exchange rate crisis that might derail stabilization policy. Avoiding this course req...

New uncertainty
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Oct 2024

Venezuela is in limbo and not. It is in limbo because the National Electoral Council has not published the results of our past elections in accordance with the law, and the Supreme Court's ruling designating Nicolás Maduro the victor was illegal. This awarded Maduro with power but no legitimacy a...

Oil revenues will set the tone
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Sep 2024

Prior to July 28, inflation had been contained thanks to tight control over the official exchange rate, strong competition, and highly price-elastic consumer demand. In August, however, the inflation rate soared to 1.4 percent, double July’s 0.7-percent rate. We attribute this acceleration to a s...

Immune to everything?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Aug 2024

The Supreme Court of Justice has validated the results of Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election that had been announced by the National Electoral Council. The formality was carried out amidst a wave of harsh repression that sent the message that those in the upper echelons of government have ...

Webinar Replay - Venezuela Political Briefing
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Aug 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the country's international standing and its economic and political outlook in the aftermath of Venezuela's pivotal 2024 presidential elections What can the international community do? Will there be room for negotiations? How could ...

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