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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Muted response to USA, no change in policy
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Mar 2017

Venezuela’s response to U.S. accusations and sanctions against Vice President El Aissami has been unusually restrained. The regime and opposition alike seem to be waiting for clearer signals regarding the Trump administration’s stance toward Venezuela. International pressure might push the reg...

Inflation dynamics remain strong
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017

​Prices are usually reset by businesses in Venezuela at the beginning of each year. In January 2017, price increases were intense reflecting expectations associated with the accelerated rise in the parallel market rate in November (+86 percent) and December (+ 52 percent) and its continued rise, ...

En route to Nicaragua?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2017 · 1 response

The government seems interested in having elections soon and seeks to implement conditions á la Nicaragua 2016 to ensure victory. On February 7, the National Electoral Council (CNE) convened 56 opposition parties, including all those forming the Democratic Unity Table (MUD) to re-enroll. The req...

Pdvsa In The News
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 31 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Pdvsa’s new board, announced on January 29, confirms loyalty as Maduro’s key driver. The board replicates his cabinet’s civic-military structure, comprising civilian loyalists and military officials chosen among his closest allies in the military world. This indicates that the struggle for succes...

New priorities and dialogue opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Jan 2017

With the threat of a recall vote out of the way but the risk of complete social breakdown high, Nicolás Maduro is trying to impose order, stabilize the economy, and recover popular support in anticipation of elections the regime will have to submit to sooner or later. A new identity card will hel...

Ricardo Sanguino, new president of BCV
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response

Ricardo Sanguino is the new president of the BCV, appointed by the President of the Republic for a 7-year term. The National Assembly doesn’t have a say in this matter. Changes to the Board of the BCV may follow. Sanguino has been a member of the National Assembly since 2000 and presided over the...

Bracing for a difficult year
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

Maduro gears up to 2017 with a more loyal cabinet, bringing in left-wing radical civilians and leaving intact the military component. He will continue managing emergencies one by one, hoping that better oil prices and creative financial engineering will allow him to overcome crises. The new cabin...

The $5 billion surprise
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 03 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

On 29 December 2016, Venezuela issued a $5 billion bond due in 2036, with a 6.5 percent coupon, after five years without dollar-denominated issues. The manager is Haitong International Securities / Haitong Bank, S.A., based in Hong Kong. The legal framework for this bond is the 2016 Indebtedness ...

Chavismo stays in power and the crisis continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Dec 2016

The year will end with Nicolás Maduro still in power, the opposition in crisis, and politics having taken a sharp authoritarian turn. The government’s plan is to cling to power till 2018 by radicalizing as much as possible, from time to time easing up when it deems repression to be unfeasible. ...

Why?
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Dec 2016

The abrupt demonetization of Bs 100 banknote attempted by Maduro has been a disastrous experience. It revealed misconceptions on macroeconomic matters and lack of coordination between government agencies. The government seriously underestimated the challenge of replacing a banknote that accounts ...

The December 13 decline in foreign reserves
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2016

International reserves fell by $800 million on December 13. We believe this reflects a payment to Gold Reserve, already postponed twice. The most recent agreement between the company and the government set payments totaling $820 million to be made between December 15 and January 31, namely: $300 ...

Inflation accelerates
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Dec 2016 · 4 responses

We hold to our November 18.7 percent MOM inflation estimate, despite the 165 percent increase in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in November. Low demand for dollars against this steep price increase led the parallel rate to a halt. In our view, the impact on inflation will be felt ...

Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

The second round of internationally-mediated talks ended on November 12 produced a roadmap that could help restore constitutional order but the path towards regime change is longer than the opposition wants. The opposition’s leadership paid a high cost by accepting the mediator’s proposal to post...

Pdvsa's Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Pdvsa missed paying in time interest on the PDVSA 9% 2021s, PDVSA 6% 2024s and PDVSA 9.75% 2035s as reported by Citibank, the paying agent, and Clearstream. We understand payments were still pending as of eob yesterday, Monday 21, 2016. PDVSA has only paid $135 million on the PDVSA’s 6.0% 2026s. ...

U.S. Elections and Venezuela
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Nov 2016

Trade between Venezuela and the U.S. has evolved normally despite diplomatic ups and downs. U.S. companies operating in Venezuela haven’t faced problems. This is unlikely to change with President Trump. Both governments have also held relatively fluid conversations throughout the Venezuelan polit...

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