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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Maduro controls politics but not inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jul 2018

With elections over and the opposition grappling with its own internal differences, Nicolás Maduro has focused on renewing his alliance with the military and keeping a firm grip on the ruling PSUV. He and the top military brass have a tight relationship and are keeping a sharp lookout for any sig...

Hyperinflation with a life of its own
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jul 2018

We revised up our monthly inflation estimate for June to 127 percent, from 103 percent in our previous report and our July forecast to 116 percent (from 107 percent). Inflation will accelerate further in August to 148 percent owing to seasonal factors. Inflation for the first eight months will re...

Maduro's "new beginning"
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Jun 2018 · 1 response

Diosdado Cabello was elected by consensus, without contenders, as president of the National Constituent Assembly (ANC) replacing Delcy Rodríguez after having been in the shadows since 2015. This is a step in chavismo’s reengineering that Maduro dubs as the "new beginning". The decision reflects a...

​Maduro seeks more control
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jun 2018

Maduro freshens up his cabinet by bringing in "more women and youngsters". Yet he is simply reshuffling people already holding top positions in government or chavista organizations. One of the cabinet changes stands out, though, as it hints at what Maduro is looking for early on in his second ...

Multiple exchange rates are back again
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jun 2018

For some time, the government has been looking for ways to channel remittances trough the Dicom system to the central bank. We estimate this inflow at about $1 billion a year, the government seems to believe it’s around $3 billion. The huge gap between the Dicom rate and the price of the dollar i...

Hyperinflation at full speed
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Jun 2018

We revised up our inflation estimate for May 2018 to 107 percent, from 102 percent in our previous report. Accumulated inflation for January-May 2018 rises to 2,186 percent and the year-on-year rate for May goes up to 29,360 percent. We forecast a slight slowdown in the June monthly rate to 1...

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Presentation · 08 Jun 2018

Holding fair elections by year-end is on the public agenda again, and civil society is beginning to organize. Current bad policy and bad outcomes point to a full scale debt restructuring on the horizon.

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 23 May 2018

Maduro’s victory on 20 May didn’t convince anyone, neither at home nor abroad. New U.S. sanctions and Lima Group pressures limit further the government’s room to maneuver. It’s too soon to tell whether Maduro strengthened his grip on chavismo after his 20 May victory or whether elections lead to ...

Being proclaimed is not the same as winning
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 18 May 2018

Elections are around the corner without a clear picture of the results to be expected on Sunday. We hold to our base case that Nicolás Maduro will be proclaimed winner. Nevertheless, his political footing will weaken as a result of doubts surrounding both the electoral outcome and his ability to ...

Hyperinflation worsens
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2018

Our monthly inflation rate forecast for May and June 2018 is 102 percent and 110 percent. Demand for money collapses as expectations deteriorate in the face of growing political pressures and macroeconomic imbalances. Accumulated inflation in the first semester 2018 rises to 4,583 percent and the...

Maduro will declare victory. Then what?
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2018

Venezuela’s presidential election is just over a week away, but few citizens are passionate about the campaign. Folks are more concerned with day-to-day life under hyperinflation and collapsing public services. Surveys suggest that, nonetheless, more people intend to vote than they did a few mont...

Adding fuel to the crisis
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 May 2018

The Banesco takeover hurts financial sector stability, feeds distrust, and fuels hyperinflation, recession, and loss of value of the bolivar. The largest bank in the country, accounting for 25 percent of total deposits and 26 percent of total loans, 8 million depositors (in a country with only 31...

Rough seas ahead
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Apr 2018 · 1 response

The clear deterioration of the balance of payments augurs difficult days ahead. We update our foreign exchange cash flow projection for 2018 taking into account two significant pieces of information: lower than expected oil production and exports in the first quarter of 2018 and the resumption of...

A (tenuous) sign of opposition unity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Apr 2018

On April 17, the National Assembly (AN) approved a criminal investigation against Nicolás Maduro for corruption cases stemming from Odebrecht’s activities in Venezuela, upon request by the Supreme Court of Justice "in exile"[1] and former Attorney General Luisa Ortega Díaz. The decision was appro...

Inflation rising, after a break in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2018

We revised down our monthly inflation rate estimate for March to 62 percent, significantly lower than our 89 percent forecast.This reflects the lagged effect of the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market in February (-8%) which interrupted the vertiginous January surge (+123 pe...

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