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Not one uncertainty but two
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 May 2024

In democratic elections, people experience uncertainty as to the outcome but certainty as to the process. In non-democratic elections, they experience the opposite. In Venezuela, we’re experiencing both. The electoral field is slanted because the Maduro government controls its shape and makes...

Serious harm, little gain
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 May 2024

The Law for the Protection of Social Security Pensions from Imperialist Blockade (LPP) went into effect on May 8, 2024, creating a new tax of up to 15% of formal and informal private employers' salary and non-wage bonus payments. The rate was set at 9% by presidential decree on May 16 . The new ...

New single scenario given GL 44a
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 May 2024

For the remainder of 2024, we present a single scenario now, one that reflects General License 44a (GL 44A) and the current economic policy framework. Inflation in this scenario decelerates to 70 percent from last year’s 190 percent, and the exchange rate moves up 36 percent to close 2024 at 53.3...

Clearer picture, with high risks
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Apr 2024

The majority opposition now has a unity candidate, but the path to the presidential election is strewn with obstacles, the final outcome uncertain. On April 19, just one day before the deadline, the Democratic Unitary Platform (Plataforma Unitaria Democrática, or PUD) with the support of all ...

Two signs of sanity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

On April 20, after four weeks of agonizing negotiations, the opposition agreed on a single candidate supported by all the Unitary Platform (PUD) parties one day before the deadline for modifying endorsements to be visible on the ballot. The candidate is Edmundo González Urrutia, registered by PUD...

GL 44a: Case-by-case flexibility, with opacity
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 21 Apr 2024 · 1 response

General License 44a (GL 44a), dated April 17, 2024, requires that oil and gas activities not expressly subject to General Licenses 41 (Chevron) and 8m (Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, and Weatherford) be granted special licenses by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Co...

Tax collections and weak demand held March inflation steady
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

Inflation held steady at 1.2 percent in March. While, starting in the third week of March, bolivar depreciation against the dollar and a transportation fare hike pushed up on inflation, and monetary expansion caused by domestic public outlays expanded by 21 percent compared with 9 percent in Febr...

What could happen if GL 44 expires on April 18?
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Apr 2024

The possible expiration of General License 44 (GL 44) generates uncertainty. Venezuela's oil production and exports have been increasing since 2022 under licenses 41 and 44 . Both allow selling oil in Venezuela's natural markets (the US and Europe) at better prices, with more efficient collectio...

A storm of uncertainties
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The government did not allow Machado's candidacy or Corina Yoris, her designated substitute. After the deadline for nominations had expired, the National Electoral Council (CNE) admitted the "symbolic" candidacy of Dr. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat with no party ties, under the car...

Machado names substitute candidate
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Maria Corina Machado waited till March 22, when the nomination period was already under way, to appoint Corina Yoris as her replacement candidate, stating that she embodies perfect opposition unity. During the press conference, Yoris had support from the parties grouped under the Unitary Platform...

Venezuela Webinar Replay: Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Will General License 44 be renewed or reformed, or will it simply expire? What is the oil sector outlook? How is the opposition getting ready for the July presidential elections? How will the Essequibo conflict evolve in the coming months? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webina...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Get insight into Venezuela's political and macro outlook scenarios with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Venezuela: Assessing Risks and Opportunities".

The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...

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