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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Feb 2014

The Venezuelan political puzzle, shaken by widespread protests since early February, is slowly starting to come together again even though some parts don’t fit together yet. Leopoldo López’s image as opposition leader has strengthened. He turned himself in on February 18, as promised, in a massiv...

Weak Foreign Public Sector Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Feb 2014

We update our estimate of public sector foreign financial assets including official data on the central bank’s foreign reserves and partial information on non-reserve assets. We estimate that unencumbered liquid foreign assets fell to $30.3 billion by December 2013 from $46.8 billion in December ...

Political Violence: Episode or New Phase?
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2014

The opposition’s defeat in the December 2013 municipal elections fueled the debate on the path to power in Venezuela among opposition leaders. Some argue that Venezuela can’t endure five more years with a Maduro government while others believe that the next few years should be devoted to building...

Stubborn Inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2014

Monthly National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) inflation accelerated in January 2014 to 3.3 percent from 2.2 percent in December 2013. The year-on-year rate closed at 56.2 percent (56.1 percent last year). Inflation usually slows in January reflecting seasonal decline in demand and retail sales. Th...

Fair Prices or General Price Control?
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

The recently approved Law on Fair Prices (LOPJ) fully subjects economic activity to state control. The law created a government agency with broad powers to regulate prices, costs and profit margins of all companies and individuals producing goods and services in Venezuela. Penalties and sanctions...

Unfortunate Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2014 · 3 responses

The central bank’s decision to suspend Sicad No.16 led to confusion and hurt the credibility of the new forex policy announced by Rafael Ramírez, Vicepresident for Economic Affairs, on 22 January 2014. It's the first time a Sicad event has been suspended. It was the first auction after Ramírez an...

Waiting For The Second Shoe
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Measures announced so far, in our view, set the stage for a more meaningful bolivar devaluation shortly. This is just the beginning. So far the government has sharpened the tools for forex and price controls, raised the cost and reduced the amount of dollars for personal expenses abroad, and clos...

Radical Ideology, Pragmatic Implementation
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2014

In his first annual message to the National Assembly on 15 January 2014, President Nicolas Maduro confirmed the government’s intervention strategy "no matter what happens” (sic) emphasizing on controls on prices and foreign exchange transactions. Shortly after, Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresid...

Maduro's address will be at at 4:00PM (Caracas time)
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2014

As per the National Assembly Secretariat's announcement.

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2014

Tomorrow, 15 January 2014, President Nicolás Maduro will present the Annual Presidential Message to the the National Assembly. He has offered to take this opportunity to make "special" announcements. Maduro might announce some of the measures that markets expect, particularly on foreign exchange ...

Stagflation Postponed to 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Venezuela will begin 2014 with growth slowing sharply and inflation remaining sky high. In other words, the country will suffer stagflation. We estimate that GDP will grow by only 1.6 percent this year and shrink by 2.5 percent in 2014. We see inflation rates persisting in the 5...

The Price of Gasoline
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2013

Shortly after the December 8 elections, the government started hinting at a gasoline price increase coupled with new subsidies to public transport. Jorge Arreaza, Executive Vicepresident, and Haiman El Troudi, Minister of Land Transportation, placed the topic on the public agenda. Rafael Ramirez,...

Our take on the December 8 Elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

Guide for December 8
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2013

What’s at stake? Chavismo currently controls 85 % of the municipalities in the country (284 out of 335). In all likelihood, it will continue controlling a significant majority of municipalities after December 8. In our view, three indicators will be used to measure success in the upcoming electio...

Little Reason to Cheer
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

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