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The devil is in the details
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 May 2023

While the International Conference on Venezuela closed without an official joint declaration from the 20 participating countries, it did produce a unanimous closing call for three things. First is to "establish an electoral schedule" that considers the recommendations of the November 2021 Europea...

Introducing 2024 inflation scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Monthly inflation fell sharply in March to 4.5 percent from its February rate of 17.5 percent and its January 29.0 percent. Driving this result were exchange-rate stabilization, a bolivar drought, and continued weakness in consumer demand. Inflation in the year to March was 58 percent compared wi...

Two interesting weeks ahead
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Apr 2023

Between April 24 and 25, the International Conference on Venezuela convened by President Gustavo Petro will take place in Bogotá. And in the week of May 1, the Primary Commission, in charge of organizing the internal election process of the opposition candidate, is expected to announce the electi...

Maduro’s tolling agreement proposal: a non-event
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

On March 30, 2022, the Maduro government announced it suspended the statute of limitations on bonds issued by the sovereign and Pdvsa for five years or until the US government lifts economic sanctions that prevent a debt restructuring, whatever happens first. This initiative stems from the “perpl...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

A New Set of Inflation Scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2023

In February 2023, monthly inflation slowed down to 17.5 percent from its January rate of 29.0 percent. Its annual rate, however, rose to 385 percent from its previous 324 percent. The February slowdown in inflation is a consequence, on the one hand, of the third monthly drop in a row in privat...

Distrust
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2023

The threat of hyperinflation redux brings to light just how precarious is the government’s macro stabilization model. Forced to speed up Venezuela’s forex burn rate to contain bolivar weakening and faced with salary demands that can’t be met and the rising costs of ubiquitous corruption, especial...

Upward revisions for inflation and the exchange rate
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Feb 2023

January 2023 data are telling us that current inflationary dynamics are strong. Inflation for the month reached 29 percent driven by an expansion in primary money in turn fueled by an atypical hike in public spending and weak central bank currency sales. Everyone’s talking about the minimum wa...

Maduro hopes to bargain “his way”
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Feb 2023

In January, the government began hostilities aimed at placing conditions on the Mexico agenda it can then use as bargaining chips. It has threatened to replace all non-Chavista members of the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE). To do so would jeopardize the legitimacy...

Webinar replay: Venezuela in 2023: What to expect?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jan 2023

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses Venezuela's macro outlook and the prospects for growth in 2023. How will politics affect economic recovery? With the dire situation of Venezuela's oil industry and the limited scope of Chevron's ...

It’s all about oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Jan 2023

Inflation slowed in 2022 for the fourth consecutive year, though by far less than the government had hoped. Inflation exceeded the government’s double-digit annual inflation target last August. Still, the year closed with an estimated inflation of 251 percent, which is far less than the 681 perce...

Adios, interim presidency
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jan 2023

The interim presidency was born in January 2019 under the hypothesis that growing street protests and the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy would lead to the early breakdown of the Maduro government. It expired in December 2022 in the worst possible way. The debate that led to its ...

It’s Only the Beginning
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Dec 2022

After the November 26 signing by Nicolás Maduro government and the delegation of the Unitary Platform their humanitarian agreement, heated rhetoric fills the air. The parties seem not to have the will or sense of urgency needed to move forward in the process. Although talks continue in Caracas...

Stabilization at risk
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2022

Monthly inflation for November jumped to 19.0 percent from 6.0 percent as a direct consequence of a 45.6 percent rise in the dollar against the bolivar. This bolivar plunge is the deepest seen so far this year. Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) foreign exchange interv...

2023 Forecast: Growth and Disinflation will Sputter
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Dec 2022

Please note that we have changed the final sentence of the sixth paragraph of our section “License 41 in a nut shell” and we have also changed the final sentence before Table 2 in the “2023 Forecast” section. Compared with the last seven years, during which economic contraction was strong and...