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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank May 13 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 16
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA: FISCAL PRESSURES AND POLITICAL SHIFTS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024
Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...
The risk of non-renewal increases
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response
With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...
Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024
In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...
In the midst of a storm
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2024
In the midst of a storm Given the political disqualification of María Corina Machado using a Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) judgment that violates all principles of due process and breaches provision 3.11 of the Barbados Agreement, the U.S. State Department reacted by suspending General License 4...
Maduro’s Unnecessary and Costly Disruption
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Feb 2024
This article was originally published in Americas Quarterly on January 31, 2024. Few expected a complete resolution of Venezuela’s political crisis this year. But many did hope, at least, for substantial progress towards a democratic transition that would put the country’s citizens first, capp...
Maduro tightens the reins
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2024
Maduro's government started off the year with an offensive to consolidate hardline positions in the face of threats it’s facing in this electoral year. It has three strategic objectives: first, strengthen its leadership and bureaucratic and electoral apparatuses; second, promote division and abst...
Increases and promises have begun
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024
Increases and promises have begun On January 15, President Nicolás Maduro announced the increase of the Minimum Integral Indexed Income (Ingreso Mínimo Integral Indexado, IMII) for public sector workers to $100 (from $80, +25%) as of February 1, by way of an increase of the Bonus Against the Econ...
Exchange rates matter now more than ever
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jan 2024
In 2023, the Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) sharpened its focus on taming the exchange rate. In the fourth quarter, which is when public outlays tend to be strongest, the BCV supplemented active exchange rate intervention with close monitoring of bank exchange operat...
Maduro's New Year's resolutions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Dec 2023
On the surface, Nicolás Maduro is closing 2023 with a positive balance. He overcame challenging situations and looks ready to face 2024 with better control of the playing field. But next year, he must achieve something his political skill does not guarantee: to enthuse Venezuelans to obtain a cre...
An irrelevant 2024 fiscal budget
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2023
On December 14, 2023, the National Assembly approved the 2024 Budget and Indebtedness Law for Bs 730 billion ($20 billion at the BCV exchange rate). This budget, unfortunately, does not serve its purpose as a fiscal policy guidance tool, which is a matter of concern.
Does this help the Barbados negotiations?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023
The Maduro government released two American prisoners yesterday and returned them shortly after to prison allegedly because of an airplane issue. It seems more likely that this episode was part of the most critical prisoner exchange that Maduro has ever carried out, involving the release of Alex ...
Laying the groundwork for elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2023
Faced with a high likelihood that a competitive election could lead Maduro to lose power or that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling could hand Guyana a victory, the government has chosen the defense of the Essequibo as a way to unify the people against two enemies, one external (Guya...
Inflation cooldown in 2024 rests on oil and politics
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2023
In November, thanks to near stability in the parallel exchange rate (up by only 1.3 percent), the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 3.5 percent from the 5.9-percent rate observed in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) intervened aggressively in the foreign exchange markets during the f...
A Prelude to the Campaign
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Nov 2023
April 8, 2024 will be the Venezuelan government’s last chance to act at the International Court of Justice in defense of its rights over the Essequibo region. Even though a clear judicial route exists for addressing the Essequibo conflict, on December 3, the Maduro government opted for calling a...
Freedoms will drive outcomes in 2024
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 29 Nov 2023
The sanctions relief begun in late 2022 is gradually adding oxygen to the Venezuelan economy. While it’s no panacea, it does translate into higher output for the joint ventures in which Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom hold minority stakes, and therefore stronger export revenue and foreign...