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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A storm of uncertainties
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Apr 2024

The government did not allow Machado's candidacy or Corina Yoris, her designated substitute. After the deadline for nominations had expired, the National Electoral Council (CNE) admitted the "symbolic" candidacy of Dr. Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a retired diplomat with no party ties, under the car...

Machado names substitute candidate
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Mar 2024

Maria Corina Machado waited till March 22, when the nomination period was already under way, to appoint Corina Yoris as her replacement candidate, stating that she embodies perfect opposition unity. During the press conference, Yoris had support from the parties grouped under the Unitary Platform...

Venezuela Webinar Replay: Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Will General License 44 be renewed or reformed, or will it simply expire? What is the oil sector outlook? How is the opposition getting ready for the July presidential elections? How will the Essequibo conflict evolve in the coming months? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webina...

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - Assessing Risks and Opportunities
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Mar 2024

Get insight into Venezuela's political and macro outlook scenarios with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Venezuela: Assessing Risks and Opportunities".

The tax collections lull comes to an end
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Mar 2024

February inflation (1.2 percent) adds one more month to the disinflation trend recorded since October 2023. This monthly rate is the lowest since August 2012 and puts year-on-year inflation into double digits for the first time since April 2015. The improvement stems from nominal bolivar apprecia...

Four months to come up with a unitary candidate
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

On March 5, the National Electoral Council (Consejo Nacional Electoral, or CNE) announced the date of the Presidential elections: July 28, Hugo Chavez's birthday. Weeks of conjectures and supposed "consultations" ended. The announcement triggers an electoral race full of obstacles for which the o...

As murky as possible
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Feb 2024

Recent events seem to be leading the country towards a variant of the 2018 scenario in which the government, in poor shape to win any elections—even low-quality ones—is bent on ensuring that the opposition won’t come together, the Unitary Platform will repudiate the elections, a multitude of non-...

The risk of non-renewal increases
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

With the political climate heating up, the risk that General License 44 (GL 44) may not be renewed next April 18 is heightening. It’s premature to try to guess how the ongoing turmoil will play out. Things can change between now and April 18; license renewal can still be achieved. A scenario ...

Disinflation Continues
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Feb 2024

In January, inflation slowed down for the fourth month in a row to 1.7 percent from 3.0 percent in December. Had it not been for increases in services—chiefly recreation and basic services—inflation would have come in lower still. Food prices, with their weight of nearly 50 percent in our basket,...

In the midst of a storm
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Feb 2024

In the midst of a storm Given the political disqualification of María Corina Machado using a Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ) judgment that violates all principles of due process and breaches provision 3.11 of the Barbados Agreement, the U.S. State Department reacted by suspending General License 4...

Maduro’s Unnecessary and Costly Disruption
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Feb 2024

This article was originally published in Americas Quarterly on January 31, 2024. Few expected a complete resolution of Venezuela’s political crisis this year. But many did hope, at least, for substantial progress towards a democratic transition that would put the country’s citizens first, capp...

Maduro tightens the reins
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Jan 2024

Maduro's government started off the year with an offensive to consolidate hardline positions in the face of threats it’s facing in this electoral year. It has three strategic objectives: first, strengthen its leadership and bureaucratic and electoral apparatuses; second, promote division and abst...

Increases and promises have begun
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Jan 2024

Increases and promises have begun On January 15, President Nicolás Maduro announced the increase of the Minimum Integral Indexed Income (Ingreso Mínimo Integral Indexado, IMII) for public sector workers to $100 (from $80, +25%) as of February 1, by way of an increase of the Bonus Against the Econ...

Exchange rates matter now more than ever
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

In 2023, the Venezuelan Central Bank (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV) sharpened its focus on taming the exchange rate. In the fourth quarter, which is when public outlays tend to be strongest, the BCV supplemented active exchange rate intervention with close monitoring of bank exchange operat...

Maduro's New Year's resolutions
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Dec 2023

On the surface, Nicolás Maduro is closing 2023 with a positive balance. He overcame challenging situations and looks ready to face 2024 with better control of the playing field. But next year, he must achieve something his political skill does not guarantee: to enthuse Venezuelans to obtain a cre...

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