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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An irrelevant 2024 fiscal budget
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2023

On December 14, 2023, the National Assembly approved the 2024 Budget and Indebtedness Law for Bs 730 billion ($20 billion at the BCV exchange rate). This budget, unfortunately, does not serve its purpose as a fiscal policy guidance tool, which is a matter of concern.

Does this help the Barbados negotiations?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Dec 2023

The Maduro government released two American prisoners yesterday and returned them shortly after to prison allegedly because of an airplane issue. It seems more likely that this episode was part of the most critical prisoner exchange that Maduro has ever carried out, involving the release of Alex ...

Laying the groundwork for elections
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Dec 2023

Faced with a high likelihood that a competitive election could lead Maduro to lose power or that the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruling could hand Guyana a victory, the government has chosen the defense of the Essequibo as a way to unify the people against two enemies, one external (Guya...

Inflation cooldown in 2024 rests on oil and politics
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Dec 2023

In November, thanks to near stability in the parallel exchange rate (up by only 1.3 percent), the pace of monthly inflation slowed to 3.5 percent from the 5.9-percent rate observed in October. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) intervened aggressively in the foreign exchange markets during the f...

A Prelude to the Campaign
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Nov 2023

April 8, 2024 will be the Venezuelan government’s last chance to act at the International Court of Justice in defense of its rights over the Essequibo region. Even though a clear judicial route exists for addressing the Essequibo conflict, on December 3, the Maduro government opted for calling a...

Freedoms will drive outcomes in 2024
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 29 Nov 2023

The sanctions relief begun in late 2022 is gradually adding oxygen to the Venezuelan economy. While it’s no panacea, it does translate into higher output for the joint ventures in which Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Maurel & Prom hold minority stakes, and therefore stronger export revenue and foreign...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April - amended
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Nov 2023

We are re-sending this report, amended with small changes to Tables 2-9 in the Statistical Annex that brought our inflation forecast to 204% from our previous 202%. In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. ...

Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. We project annual inflation in 2023 to reach 202 percent, down from 234 percent in 2022. October was an atypical month in that primary money (M0) contracted despite ...

Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".

The earth is moving under the government’s feet
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

To everyone’s surprise, the October 22 opposition primary election drew a significant turnout. 2.4 million people voted, accounting for 12 percent of those registered in the electoral roll. María Corina Machado secured 92 percent of the votes. Her sweep came as no surprise. The clearest eviden...

An opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

A new cycle in the negotiations aimed at resolving the political crisis in Venezuela began on October 17, 2023. Beyond the agreement on electoral conditions, essential for the opposition, and oil sanctions relief opening additional income opportunities for the government for at least six mont...

Stubborn inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Oct 2023

Inflation gathered strength in September, accelerating to 8.7 percent from its August 7.4 percent. Year-on-year inflation came to 318 percent. We see it declining in quarter four to close the year at 274 percent. Shaping the September inflation path were lagged effects from strong August boliv...

Sabotage or cooperation?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

One month before the scheduled date for the opposition primary, Elvis Amoroso, the National Electoral Council (CNE) president, suddenly announced his willingness to follow up on the requests for technical support made by the National Primary Commission (CNP) months ago. Amoroso proposed to provid...

A season of offense or the eve of a deal?
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Having calibrated the political climate, the Maduro government has begun its campaign by launching a political offensive. Its weapon is the new National Electoral Council (CNE) board, which has started pursuing political aims. First, it is seeking to disrupt the opposition's primary election p...

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