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Our inflation outlook hinges on a GL 44 renewal in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Nov 2023

In October, inflation in Venezuela slowed to 5.7 percent in an interruption of its sustained upward trend seen in May–September. We project annual inflation in 2023 to reach 202 percent, down from 234 percent in 2022. October was an atypical month in that primary money (M0) contracted despite ...

Webinar replay: Venezuela - What's Next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, what is ahead for the country and where are the opportunities? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy as she discusses what's next for Venezuela.

Slide Presentation: Venezuela - What's Next
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Nov 2023

With the US's easing of sanctions on Venezuela's energy industries, get insight into what's ahead for the country with the slide presentation from our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy, "Venezuela: What's Next".

The earth is moving under the government’s feet
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Oct 2023

To everyone’s surprise, the October 22 opposition primary election drew a significant turnout. 2.4 million people voted, accounting for 12 percent of those registered in the electoral roll. María Corina Machado secured 92 percent of the votes. Her sweep came as no surprise. The clearest eviden...

An opportunity
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2023 · 1 response

A new cycle in the negotiations aimed at resolving the political crisis in Venezuela began on October 17, 2023. Beyond the agreement on electoral conditions, essential for the opposition, and oil sanctions relief opening additional income opportunities for the government for at least six mont...

Stubborn inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Oct 2023

Inflation gathered strength in September, accelerating to 8.7 percent from its August 7.4 percent. Year-on-year inflation came to 318 percent. We see it declining in quarter four to close the year at 274 percent. Shaping the September inflation path were lagged effects from strong August boliv...

Sabotage or cooperation?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2023

One month before the scheduled date for the opposition primary, Elvis Amoroso, the National Electoral Council (CNE) president, suddenly announced his willingness to follow up on the requests for technical support made by the National Primary Commission (CNP) months ago. Amoroso proposed to provid...

A season of offense or the eve of a deal?
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 Sep 2023

Having calibrated the political climate, the Maduro government has begun its campaign by launching a political offensive. Its weapon is the new National Electoral Council (CNE) board, which has started pursuing political aims. First, it is seeking to disrupt the opposition's primary election p...

Challenges to taming inflation grow steeper still
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2023

Inflation trends in Venezuela reflect our country’s challenging dynamics. Various factors are sparking changes in relative prices that in turn are fueling inflationary inertia and hardening the inflation floor, while consumer demand weakness is serving as a ceiling. We’ve been picking up signs...

Primary in danger?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 12 Sep 2023

María Carolina Uzcátegui, former vice-president of the opposition's National Primary Commission (CNP), returned to the public arena on September 7 after having publicly resigned on July 26, 2023. She reiterated her July statement: logistical and operational conditions for the primary election are...

Anemic Growth Outlook
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Sep 2023

For all of 2023, the Venezuelan economy is heading for the anemic growth rate of just 3 percent. Although, after seven continuous years of decline, GDP grew 13 percent in 2022, it lost steam in the second half of 2022 and, at the start of 2023, it faced headwinds. In the second quarter of this ...

An electoral way forward but no date
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2023

Current political dynamics in Venezuela will hinge on the precise date to be set for presidential elections. The Maduro government insists that it can move the date forward or back at will. As far as the Constitution goes, this is true. But its scope for action does face limits. Elections cann...

Easier said than done
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2023

Internal taxation, both national and sub-national, is excessive and disorderly, strongly hurting businesses. States and municipalities arbitrarily increased tax rates, made compliance more strict and increased penalties as their income was hit by the decline in economic activity, inflation an...

Inflation Untamed
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Inflation is not abating. We have revised up our inflation forecasts for the remainder of 2023, and for 2024 also. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) is not managing to contain the upward pressure on the exchange rate. Public spending has been growing strongly, increasing the fiscal incidence...

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

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