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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Anemic Growth Outlook
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Sep 2023

For all of 2023, the Venezuelan economy is heading for the anemic growth rate of just 3 percent. Although, after seven continuous years of decline, GDP grew 13 percent in 2022, it lost steam in the second half of 2022 and, at the start of 2023, it faced headwinds. In the second quarter of this ...

An electoral way forward but no date
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2023

Current political dynamics in Venezuela will hinge on the precise date to be set for presidential elections. The Maduro government insists that it can move the date forward or back at will. As far as the Constitution goes, this is true. But its scope for action does face limits. Elections cann...

Easier said than done
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2023

Internal taxation, both national and sub-national, is excessive and disorderly, strongly hurting businesses. States and municipalities arbitrarily increased tax rates, made compliance more strict and increased penalties as their income was hit by the decline in economic activity, inflation an...

Inflation Untamed
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Inflation is not abating. We have revised up our inflation forecasts for the remainder of 2023, and for 2024 also. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) is not managing to contain the upward pressure on the exchange rate. Public spending has been growing strongly, increasing the fiscal incidence...

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

Things are heating up
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While opposition primary elections face uncertainties and external and internal obstacles, the government is navigating toward poor quality elections bound to prolong Venezuela’s political conflict. A brief window of opportunity remains open for entering into internationally mediated negotiations...

2023 same as 2022
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

According to our calculations, inflation for June reached 9.0 percent. According to the numbers of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), it was 6.1 percent. Both estimates exceed the 5.1-percent rate observed in May. Despite the slowdown in public spending, the authorities have not been able to b...

Removable disqualification?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The political disqualification of María Corina Machado is yet another obstacle that the Maduro government is putting in the way of elections. It is difficult to decipher the political rationality of what the government is doing, since it is making it easier for the opposition to achieve the cohes...

Full-on campaign mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jun 2023

At first glance, it seems encouraging that political actors across the spectrum are focused on preparing for the 2024–2025 electoral cycle. But the electoral conditions are such that the elections are unlikely to help resolve the political conflict. The Maduro government is driving the pace of...

May inflation: in line with our forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, inflation in May intensified as a result of wage increases, especially the 2,122 percent rise in the food bonus (cesta ticket). Public outlays rose by 22 percent for the steepest monthly jump seen so far this year. It pushed up the exchange rate. The central bank sold $210 million, f...

Talks unlikely to restart soon
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

A Changed Game
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2023

We adjust our public spending, inflation, and exchange rate projections downward significantly following the government's 1 May 2023 announcements. Inflation remains high but falls to 188 percent this year (from 251 percent in 2022) and the exchange rate closes at 48 Bs/$ (+160 percent). A slower...

2023–2024: Slowdown
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 May 2023

We present our central scenario for the Venezuelan economy in 2023 and 2024. As we enter the forecast period, our economy is losing steam. Thanks, however, to the 2022 economic rebound, the Chevron effect, and the "tidying up" process going on at Pdvsa, fiscal accounts are strengthening. Econo...

Unprecedented
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 04 May 2023

On May 1, 2023 the Maduro government chose to increase the legal minimum income by raising the food bonus, adjusting the amounts of the bonus called Bono Contra la Guerra Económica (Bonus Against the Economic War, BCGE) paid to public employees, retirees and pensioners, and formalizing the indexa...

The devil is in the details
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 May 2023

While the International Conference on Venezuela closed without an official joint declaration from the 20 participating countries, it did produce a unanimous closing call for three things. First is to "establish an electoral schedule" that considers the recommendations of the November 2021 Europea...

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