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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A loss in central bank efficacy
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Nov 2022

Monthly inflation for October closed at 6 percent, in a sharp slowdown from September (12.0 percent) and August (16.2 percent). This slowdown occurred despite an accelerated pace of bolivar depreciation whereby the dollar spiked 8.2 percent against the bolivar in October after having gained only ...

What will happen if the deal gets signed?
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Nov 2022

It looks like a first agreement in the ongoing negotiations between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform is about to be signed. Tied to it would be the approval of a license by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) allowing Chevron to expand its operations in Venez...

Stabilization is getting tougher
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Oct 2022

For the second time this year, at 12 percent, the monthly inflation rate hit double digits. The first time was in August, the month of exchange-rate turbulence that took inflation to 16 percent. Even though the dollar appreciated against the bolivar by a mere 1.8 percent in September compared wit...

Not much is going according to his plan
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Oct 2022

Good news is in short supply for an economic policy framework reliant on restoring confidence in Maduro and his team’s capacity to a keep a tight grip on national affairs. The odds that the year will end on an optimistic note are deteriorating. The sharp bolivar sell-off that occurred in Augus...

Threat of hyperinflation looms
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2022

In August it became clear that hyperinflation was stalking Venezuela. After 11 months in the single digits, inflation jumped to 16 percent. The trigger was a non-coordination between the Treasury and the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV). The BCV reduced the supply of...

Losing steam
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 07 Sep 2022

Our projections point to an economy with a slow recovery in economic activity, persistently high inflation and a modest balance of payments surplus sustained by high oil prices and the default on the public debt. Venezuelans today are discouraged by the slow pace of the Mexico talks and delays...

The winding road to recognition
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Aug 2022

With his sights set on 2024, when he hopes to secure his third term, Maduro needs to keep his fiscal austerity program on track while facing growing demands for better salaries and services. He needs to revive his electoral machinery, diminished by the civil service's weakening and the disillusio...

Stabilizing inertia is weakening
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2022

The anti-inflationary policy based on containing bolivar depreciation yielded modest results in July. Inflation slowed down to 7.0 percent from 9.5 percent in June, while the bolivar depreciated in nominal terms against the dollar by only 2.6 percent after having done so by 9.3 percent the month ...

What to do about dry leather
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Aug 2022

Legend has it that President Antonio Guzmán Blanco, during one of the three separate presidential terms he served in the late 19th century, likened Venezuela to "a piece of dry leather”: just as soon as you manage to flatten out one edge with your foot, another edge will curl up. (The Spanish ori...

Stabilization with tailwinds from oil
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Jul 2022

Stabilization is advancing, thanks to tailwinds from rising oil revenue that are allowing the central bank to defend the bolivar energetically. Ultimately, it is this strategy of defending the bolivar that is setting the path for exchange rates and inflation both. Cash inflows and a political ...

Preparing for Mexico?
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jun 2022

Nicolás Maduro has made use of the pause in the Mexico talks to strengthen his international legitimacy by signaling his regime's adherence to the Russian sphere and welcoming authorizations granted by the U.S. government to Chevron and to ENI–Repsol. Chevron may now start talks with sanctioned V...

Demand for dollars pushes inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jun 2022

The doubling of the monthly rate of inflation in May to 9.2 percent from 4.4 percent in April was driven by bolivar depreciation that occurred despite the most intense effort to sterilize bolivars carried out by the BCV since the current Exchange Rate System (Sistema del Mercado Cambiario, or SMC...

Webinar Replay: Venezuela – Sanctions: What's next?
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jun 2022

Get insight into how changes to sanctions may reshape Venezuela's macro outlook and the future of Venezuelan oil. Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy discussing sanctions, the Chevron license, and what's ahead for Venezuela.

Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...

The Two Speeds
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2022

Venezuela’s political conflict is playing out in two different scenarios at two different speeds. Onstage, both the Maduro government and the opposition archipelago are preparing for a long electoral campaign ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Behind the scenes, pressure is accelerating to...

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