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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Aug 2023

Door to door imports: An attempt to put things in order? Maritime imports via courier, the so-called "door to door" imports, haven't been shut down yet. According to Bloomberg On Line news on July 4, 2023, the Venezuelan government intends to bring order to expedited imports via maritime courier ...

Things are heating up
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Aug 2023

While opposition primary elections face uncertainties and external and internal obstacles, the government is navigating toward poor quality elections bound to prolong Venezuela’s political conflict. A brief window of opportunity remains open for entering into internationally mediated negotiations...

2023 same as 2022
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

According to our calculations, inflation for June reached 9.0 percent. According to the numbers of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV), it was 6.1 percent. Both estimates exceed the 5.1-percent rate observed in May. Despite the slowdown in public spending, the authorities have not been able to b...

Removable disqualification?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 02 Jul 2023

The political disqualification of María Corina Machado is yet another obstacle that the Maduro government is putting in the way of elections. It is difficult to decipher the political rationality of what the government is doing, since it is making it easier for the opposition to achieve the cohes...

Full-on campaign mode
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Jun 2023

At first glance, it seems encouraging that political actors across the spectrum are focused on preparing for the 2024–2025 electoral cycle. But the electoral conditions are such that the elections are unlikely to help resolve the political conflict. The Maduro government is driving the pace of...

May inflation: in line with our forecast
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2023

As expected, inflation in May intensified as a result of wage increases, especially the 2,122 percent rise in the food bonus (cesta ticket). Public outlays rose by 22 percent for the steepest monthly jump seen so far this year. It pushed up the exchange rate. The central bank sold $210 million, f...

Talks unlikely to restart soon
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 May 2023

Political signals are negative and point to a drawn-out conflict. Political actors are focused inward, trying to bolster their strength in advance of 2024 elections. These elections could end up a repeat of 2018, when the opposition was so fragmented it could not compete, and the government ha...

A Changed Game
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 May 2023

We adjust our public spending, inflation, and exchange rate projections downward significantly following the government's 1 May 2023 announcements. Inflation remains high but falls to 188 percent this year (from 251 percent in 2022) and the exchange rate closes at 48 Bs/$ (+160 percent). A slower...

2023–2024: Slowdown
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 May 2023

We present our central scenario for the Venezuelan economy in 2023 and 2024. As we enter the forecast period, our economy is losing steam. Thanks, however, to the 2022 economic rebound, the Chevron effect, and the "tidying up" process going on at Pdvsa, fiscal accounts are strengthening. Econo...

Unprecedented
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 04 May 2023

On May 1, 2023 the Maduro government chose to increase the legal minimum income by raising the food bonus, adjusting the amounts of the bonus called Bono Contra la Guerra Económica (Bonus Against the Economic War, BCGE) paid to public employees, retirees and pensioners, and formalizing the indexa...

The devil is in the details
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 May 2023

While the International Conference on Venezuela closed without an official joint declaration from the 20 participating countries, it did produce a unanimous closing call for three things. First is to "establish an electoral schedule" that considers the recommendations of the November 2021 Europea...

Introducing 2024 inflation scenarios
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Monthly inflation fell sharply in March to 4.5 percent from its February rate of 17.5 percent and its January 29.0 percent. Driving this result were exchange-rate stabilization, a bolivar drought, and continued weakness in consumer demand. Inflation in the year to March was 58 percent compared wi...

Two interesting weeks ahead
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 24 Apr 2023

Between April 24 and 25, the International Conference on Venezuela convened by President Gustavo Petro will take place in Bogotá. And in the week of May 1, the Primary Commission, in charge of organizing the internal election process of the opposition candidate, is expected to announce the electi...

Maduro’s tolling agreement proposal: a non-event
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 11 Apr 2023

On March 30, 2022, the Maduro government announced it suspended the statute of limitations on bonds issued by the sovereign and Pdvsa for five years or until the US government lifts economic sanctions that prevent a debt restructuring, whatever happens first. This initiative stems from the “perpl...

Pdvsa struck by earthquake
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Apr 2023

After months of rumors as to the collapse of the government's stabilization program caused by an apparently unforeseen drought in oil revenues, an earthquake has struck Pdvsa. Aftershocks continue to be felt. It all started last January when Colonel Pedro Tellechea was named president of Pdvs...

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