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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Neither sanctions relief nor negotiations, for now
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 30 May 2022

The quid pro quo that seemed to be on track a few weeks ago to reactivate negotiations appears to be on hold. License 8j extending until December 1, 2022 the operating restrictions limiting Chevron, Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford International in Venezuela was a non-event...

The Two Speeds
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 May 2022

Venezuela’s political conflict is playing out in two different scenarios at two different speeds. Onstage, both the Maduro government and the opposition archipelago are preparing for a long electoral campaign ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. Behind the scenes, pressure is accelerating to...

Quid pro quo
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 May 2022

The Biden administration is finally determined to play its cards in favor of a credible negotiation process that channels the political conflict and leads to democratic progress in Venezuela.On May 17, the quid pro quo that the Venezuelan government had waited for since the surprise meeting of Ju...

Several factors fed inflation in April
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 May 2022

In April, the monthly inflation rate accelerated to 4.4 percent, driven up by monetary expansion, bolivar depreciation, the Tax on Large Financial Transactions (Impuesto a las Grandes Transacciones Financieras, or IGTF) on certain payments in foreign currency, and price increases resulting from t...

A grim political outlook
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 May 2022

Because the Maduro government has not showed progress in displaying at-home capacity to investigate alleged crimes against human rights in Venezuela, the International Criminal Court is about to launch its own such investigation. So, things look dark for justice in Venezuela. And now recent desig...

The unreported burst of inflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Apr 2022

According to the Central Bank of Venezuela (Banco Central de Venezuela, or BCV), monthly inflation slowed in March to 1.4 percent from February’s 2.9 percent. According to our own data, by contrast, inflation accelerated—to 4.3 percent. The burst was driven by an expansion in the M1 money sto...

A windfall?
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2022

We update the outlook we presented to you just four weeks ago. A little more than a month after Russia began its invasion of Ukraine and in an environment of tremendous volatility and uncertainty, oil prices have risen sharply, world oil and gas markets are undergoing restructuring, and the e...

Improving
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 Mar 2022

With 2024 presidential elections in sight, the government's goal continues to be to mitigate inflation and "de-dollarize" the economy with measures that bolster the demand for bolivars and contain dollar appreciation against the bolivar even if it means staying on the current modest and unequal e...

2022 Inflation revised down
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Mar 2022

Because we see the central bank holding to its interventionist strong-bolivar approach to inflation containment and the government staying in control of its spending, we revise down our annual inflation forecast for 2022 to 143 percent. However, we expect fiscal discipline to start to relax in an...

What is Maduro's bet?
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Mar 2022

As soon as the invasion of Ukraine began, Maduro proclaimed his allegiance to Russia with extreme subservience, contrary to the overwhelming majority of nations that repudiated it or at least avoided condemning it, such as Cuba, Nicaragua, and other Russian partners. In the immediate term, ris...

A new political cycle has opened up
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Feb 2022

Once again, the Venezuelan political conflict is being reconfigured. The view now is widespread that a new political cycle has opened up and the 2024 presidential elections are the key milestone. The opposition is undergoing reconfiguration, in a process that’s chaotic but will lead to the fo...

2022 disinflation reverses in 2023
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Feb 2022

For 2022, we see Venezuela’s anti-inflationary policy framework’s staying focused on real bolivar appreciation, with few changes from 2021. Public spending will continue to slow down, although less abruptly than in previous years. The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) will keep bank credit on a sho...

Will the opposition learn from its Barinas victory?
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Jan 2022

The election of opposition member Sergio Garrido as governor of the state of Barinas on January 9 showed the opposition how powerful unity candidates can be, how efficacious local leaders can be, and how important it is at the regional level to build alliances perhaps not feasible on a national s...

Oil will be key to defend the bolivar - amendment
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Jan 2022

Please see the amendments to Table 2 at the end of this report. Venezuela’s first hyperinflation cycle has ended. In December 2021, inflation slowed to an average monthly rate of 19 percent and an annual rate of 686 percent. The policy framework that brought hyperinflation to a halt lasted ...

What happens in Barinas doesn’t stay in Barinas
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Dec 2021

Barinas State is the home state of former president Hugo Chávez. It has been governed by the Chávez clan since 1998. On November 21, the Unity Platform (Plataforma Unitaria, or PU) candidate and a Popular Will (Voluntad Popular, or VP) party member, Freddy Superlano, won the race for governor...

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