Services

NEWS FLASH

UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: ECONOMIC UPSWINGS AND POL...

Learn More

COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Erratic control
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2021

Inflation sped up sharply in April, to 27 percent month-on-month from 11 percent in March. It was driven up primarily by sharp dollar strengthening in bolivar terms (+36 percent) despite slow public spending and money supply. We think that dollar prices were responding to the March surge in publi...

2021–2022 Outlook: Pandemic Pains
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 12 Apr 2021

Our 2021–2022 outlook depends heavily on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic. Things are bleak right now: Venezuela is suffering its worst wave of infections so far, its hospital system has collapsed, the regime is dragging its feet, and there’s no vaccination plan. One consequence of the p...

Atypical disinflation in March
VENEZUELA · Report · 09 Apr 2021

March inflation slowed to 7 percent month-on-month, from 16 percent in February. That extraordinarily low reading owes partly to a fiscal policy-driven cash crunch as demand for bolivars to pay annual taxes collided with unusually low government spending, causing dollar prices to fall against the...

Quiet deals may lead to broader negotiations
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Mar 2021

A sharp spike in Covid-19 infections has forced Nicolás Maduro’s government to order a strict two-week lockdown for a period including Holy Week. The national hospital system has run out of Covid-19 beds and faces severe shortages of oxygen, medicine, and equipment. Yet the Maduro government, ...

Inflation continues to slow
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Mar 2021

Inflation slowed to 16 percent month on month in February, down from 50 percent in January and below our forecast of 34 percent. Driving the slowdown were government austerity and exchange rate stability. In our central forecast scenario, we assume that the government will continue to dampen i...

Government and opposition continue to circle each other
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Mar 2021

Three months into 2021, the government and opposition are continuing to circle each other, each attempting to strengthen its position, neither willing to make the first move toward negotiations, and both afraid of appearing weak and incurring the wrath of their radical factions. The Maduro go...

We extend our inflation outlook to 2022 (1,600%)
VENEZUELA · Report · 12 Feb 2021

We have extended our outlook for inflation, exchange rates, and dollar purchasing power to 2022. In our central scenario, inflation slows to 2,200 percent this year and 1,600 percent next year from 2,500 percent in 2020. We continue to forecast under one central and two alternative scenarios. ...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

A chance for negotiations in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2021

This year may bring mediated talks between Venezuela’s regime and opposition. The United States and European Union both want to push for a negotiated solution to Venezuela’s crisis that leads to competitive elections, making sure the required institutional changes are implemented. Maduro ha...

The hyperinflation menace remains near
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Jan 2021

Our central inflation forecast scenario has inflation slowing down a bit in 2021, to 2,200 percent this year from 2,500 percent last year. Black market dollars appreciate against the bolivar by 1,700 percent and sell for 20 million bolivars by year end but lose bolivar purchasing power for the fo...

Regime in control but lacking legitimacy in 2021
VENEZUELA · Report · 23 Dec 2020

Maduro will start 2021 in a relatively strong position. When the new National Assembly is inaugurated on 5 January 2021, his regime will control all branches of government. He has survived tough U.S. sanctions, weakened the opposition, and kept the military on his side. But his regime, which mobi...

Nobody won
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2020

Almost simultaneous electoral events organized by the Maduro regime and the democratic opposition revealed two grave trends: voting is no longer an efficient means to express the will of the people in Venezuela, and the population is barely connected to politics and political leadership. Moreover...

BCV gold remains blocked at BOE
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2020

The appeal over which administration controls the Venezuelan gold held in custody by the Bank of England (BOE) is heading to the U.K.'s highest court and the case may not be heard until at least October or November 2021. Neither party can access the 31 tons of Venezuelan gold held by BOE until th...

Public spending and prices spiked in November
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2020

After a surprising slowdown in October, inflation returned with a vengeance in November. Consumer prices rose by 62 percent month-on-month, compared with 21 percent in October. The spike was driven by public spending, which tripled in November compared with October. We expect that momentum from ...

Venezuela webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy - Is Biden a game changer for Venezuela?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2020

In our webinar, Ruth Krivoy discusses the implications of a Biden US presidency on Venezuela and the economic, political and market outlook for the country in 2021, as well as recent developments such as the country's resumption of direct oil shipments to China.

Copyright 2024 GlobalSource Partners. All rights reserved.