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BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Sep 2025

Date: 12 Sep 2025 Time: 10:00 AM Eastern Time Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Wages are increasing well above productivity growth, and tariffs imposed by the U.S. are creating new challenges for exports. Will changes to fiscal and monetary policy be able to address the country's challenges? ...

A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...

The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025

GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

The Brazil Synthesis is a monthly overview of the Brazilian economy, with commentary and charts. The report begins with a timely topical overview, and charts provide a snapshot of the economy. Uncertainty is the name of the game Tarcísio strikes the right tone, the PCC suffers a setback: ...

This side of the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The appreciation of the exchange rate in 2025 has had impacts on inflation, chiefly in the category of tradable goods. It is true that much of the disinflation in this group is explained by food prices, whose behavior depends on variables beyond the exchange rate, but there are also signs of a sl...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

Despite successive adjustments, the output gap estimated by the Central Bank (BC) has shown little sensitivity to the unemployment rate in recent years. This behavior could be justified by a rapid decline in the NAIRU over the period. However, when estimating it implicitly from the BC’s reference...

The Phillips curve is alive and well
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2025

With the renewed decline in the unemployment rate, labor earnings, which are already growing significantly above productivity, are expected to face new pressures. Our estimates, based on pre-pandemic data, indicate that a 1 percentage point change in the economy’s slack, whether through an in...

Credit where credit is due
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Copom minutes revive the curious formula of the “continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle,” reaffirming the end of monetary tightening without stating it outright. This is, after all, a continuation of the decision made in June, which helps explain the scarcity of significant...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Aug 2025

OVERVIEW UNCERTAINTY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME The 50% tariff rise on U.S. imports of Brazilian products caused a rupture in diplomatic relations between the two countries, triggering the most acute political and economic crisis since Brazil’s redemocratization. Following Trump’s election,...

Sizing up the trouble
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

In a decree published this Wednesday, President Donald Trump raised the tariff on Brazilian products to 50%. Attached to the decree was a list of 694 products that will be exempt from the new tariff, including items such as orange juice, petroleum derivatives, certain steel products, cellulose, a...

The pause continued
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Jul 2025

As expected, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) kept the benchmark interest rate target at 15% per year. At the same time, however, in a curious grammatical construction, it stated that: “If the expected scenario materializes, the Committee foresees a continuation of the inte...

Selic, default, and consumption: what to expect?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jul 2025

Consumption shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, indicating that contractionary monetary policy is possibly already taking effect. The increase in the interest rate occurs in a scenario of high household indebtedness, which should exert additional pressure on default rates. Our ...

On the other hand...
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jul 2025

Economic activity shows signs of slowing down in the second quarter, which would suggest a narrowing of the output gap. However factor utilization is moving in the opposite direction: unemployment is declining and capacity utilization on the rise. One possible explanation for this divergence ...

The dark side of the moon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jul 2025

The surprising imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the US is expected to have negative effects on economic activity, particularly on the manufacturing sector. The US absorbs 12% of Brazilian exports, accounting for just under 2% of GDP, but almost 18% of manufactured exports, equiva...

Rising tide
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Jul 2025

The appreciation of the Brazilian real in 2025 has been accompanied by a similar movement in several other currencies, consistent with the global weakening of the U.S. dollar. When analyzing the real’s behavior against the basket of currencies that make up the Dollar Index, we observe only a mode...

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