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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

We’re gonna need a bigger boat
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Mar 2026

The decline in inflation has been concentrated on exchange-rate-sensitive items, but further progress depends on a slowdown in economic activity, which is already underway, and on the labor market, which, in contrast, remains resilient. Consumption appears to respond more to restrictions in the c...

An economy on farm support
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Mar 2026

There were no surprises this time: GDP growth in the fourth quarter of last year reached 0.1%, slightly above the previous quarter (0.0%, revised from 0.1%), bringing growth in 2025 to 2.3%, compared to 3.4% in 2024. Domestic demand, the main driver of aggregate demand expansion in 2024, showe...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Mar 2026

February, an even shorter month due to the Carnival holidays, was marked by heightened tension among the three branches of government, with no indication that the worst is over − meaning more uncertainty and political risks lie ahead. The main source of turbulence stems not only from the progress...

More than meets the eye
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2026

Although the presumed increase in productivity associated with the application of AI is often quoted as reason for a more aggressive stance regarding the definition of US interest rates, there are forces operating in the opposite direction. In particular, as shown both theoretically and empirical...

The kindness of strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2026

The Brazilian real continued its appreciation at the beginning of the year, strengthening 5.6% through the first half of February. The dollar fell below BRL 5.20/USD, reaching its lowest level since mid-2024. We believe, however, that this appreciation of the real is not grounded in an improvemen...

A pound of beans
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Feb 2026

This Special Report explores the effects of agricultural production on food-at-home inflation. The topic has become increasingly relevant when we consider two aspects: the first is the Brazilian agricultural sector robust growth , accompanied by productivity gains; the second is the importance of...

Deficits Through the Looking Glass
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Feb 2026

In 2025, the public sector nominal deficit reached BRL 1.06 trillion (8.3% of GDP), the second highest ever. Although this figure raises concern, it is not the best indicator of debt dynamics. The evolution of the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the operational result, defined as the primary deficit...

The Most Serene Committee
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2026

The minutes of the last Copom meeting brought relatively few novelties compared to the Statement released last week, but, taken as a whole, they reinforce our conviction that the most likely scenario for monetary policy involves the beginning of the monetary easing cycle with a 0.50 p.p. cut at t...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Feb 2026

RISKS: WITHOUT A COMPASS, AT THE MERCY OF WINDS AND MOODS The construction of a solid institutional framework has been one of the pillars of civilization. Faced with the inevitability of uncertainty, human beings built rules to reduce it, restricting the possible choices in each situation. If ...

Here comes the sun
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Jan 2026

There was no surprise regarding Copom’s decision to maintain the target for the benchmark Selic rate at 15.00% per year. It was also expected that the post-meeting communication would unlock the door that had kept an interest rate cut remote, by removing from the statement the expression: “To en...

Every journey begins with a first step
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Jan 2026

Brazil’s growth has been supported by higher resource utilization, while the contribution from productivity remains limited. Among the various constraints on productivity in the country, low trade opening plays a prominent role. In this context, the agreement between Mercosur and the European Uni...

We’re gonna need a bigger boat…
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jan 2026

There is considerable debate regarding Brazil’s growth potential. Despite a visible acceleration of the Brazilian economy in the post-pandemic period, when GDP grew around 3% per year, we have argued that a considerable portion of this performance is due to the utilization of previously idle reso...

The deficit and the debt
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2026

The Minister of Finance, seeking to defend his legacy (an arduous task, I acknowledge), stated in an interview that “public debt is increasing because of high interest rates, not because of the deficit”. This is not true, as we will show in this Report. The primary deficits recorded in 2023, 2024...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Jan 2026

The disinflationary process observed in 2025 was largely driven by the strong appreciation of the real and favorable food price dynamics. Going forward, the Central Bank will have to bring inflation back to target through the ongoing slowdown in activity and through a weakening of the labor marke...

In the final stretch
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Dec 2025

The tone of the Copom Minutes, released yesterday, was somewhat more upbeat in its assessment of the prospective inflation scenario than that conveyed in the Statement following the meeting, but, even so, without elements that would allow us to affirm, as we had come to believe, that the beginnin...

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