GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Copom rightly expresses discomfort with the rise in long-term inflation expectations in response to the oil shock, whose effects should dissipate before affecting inflation at more distant horizons. We argue in this report that this pattern results from the Central Bank’s stance since 2021, marke...

With a little help from my (not so close) friends

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 May 2026

Brazilian trade balance should benefit considerably from the oil shock, given the country’s position as a net exporter of this product. Our projections indicate that the oil trade surplus could approach USD $56 billion in 2026. Moreover, there is a deepening trade relationship with China and the ...

The compass, the map and the fog

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 May 2026

We believe that the reading of the most recent edition of the Copom Minutes was dominated by one single question: will the easing cycle, pardon, the calibration of the Selic continue, or will the BC be forced to end it, or pause it, after only modest two cuts of 0.25 p.p. each? Our understandi...

Inflation's fuel is not just fuel prices

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2026

The inflation outlook is shaped by both the external shock associated with the situation in the Middle East and the deterioration of underlying inflation measures. The acceleration of core inflation and underlying services, combined with broader diffusion, signals that price pressures reflect per...

The sea steers BCB

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2026

As widely expected, Copom decided to reduce the target for the policy interest rate again by 0.25 p.p., from 14.75% to 14.50% per year, even in the face of higher inflation projections for the relevant horizon. BCB made it clear that it attributes the deterioration to the effects of the confli...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2026

With survival and the October election on the radar, political actors anxiously await the outcome of the plea bargain of Daniel Vorcaro & Cia. If accepted by the Federal Police, Federal Prosecutor’s Office and Supreme Federal Court, it may trigger an earthquake with potential to affect the lives ...

The energy that comes from oil

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Apr 2026

The real continues on an appreciation trajectory, with performance that stands out relative to developed and emerging peers. The movement reflects higher oil prices, which tend to improve the terms of trade and the country’s external position, combined with strong inflows of foreign capital into ...

Budget in Wonderland

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Apr 2026

The administration has submitted to Congress the Budget Guidelines Bill (PLDO) for 2027, signaling the evolution of federal public accounts for the next 4 years, from 2027 to 2030. It could be nominated for the Hugo Award — if there were a category for budget pieces.

The truth in drips

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2026

The government raised the projected primary deficit from BRL 23 billion to BRL 60 billion. There are still indications of underestimation in spending on Social Security and BPC, while the oil shock led to the announcement of BRL 31 billion in subsidies and tax waivers, an amount that tends to inc...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Apr 2026

SURPRISES IN THE ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE AND THE SUPREME COURT UNDER SCRUTINY The deadline for officeholders to step down from their positions and of the party-switching window accelerated the definition of presidential candidacies for the October election, bringing a new development with the pote...

Bad moon rising

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2026

The conflict in the Middle East has significantly altered the balance of risks for inflation; at the same time, the revision of BCB’s forecasts appears insufficient given the current scenario. Upside risks have intensified asymmetrically relative to downside risks. In addition, oil prices are alr...

Fiscal impact of the oil shock

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2026

The increase in oil prices triggered by the conflict in Iran has significant fiscal repercussions for Brazil, given the weight of the sector in the economy. The revenue impacts occur mainly through royalties and special participation charges on oil exploration, through corporate taxes on the sect...

The Hormuz observatory

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2026

In light of what has occurred in recent weeks, and even of the market pricing of interest rates, Copom reducing the target for the Selic rate by 0.25 p.p. to 14.75% per year was no surprise. That said, I did not anticipate the increase in the Central Bank’s inflation projection for the relevan...

Hangover

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Mar 2026 · 1 response

Although we expect a monetary easing cycle in 2026, the economic slowdown that became evident in the second half of last year is still likely to manifest itself this year. In particular, economic growth should decelerate relative to 2025, although the nature of the deceleration will be somewhat d...

On the short-term altar

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Mar 2026

In response to the increase in international prices of oil and derivatives, although Petrobras had not yet commented on a possible pass-through to domestic prices, the government announced measures to limit a potential impact on the price of diesel. It reduced to zero the PIS-Cofins tax levied...