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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The force awakens
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2025

The decline in the trade surplus since last year has been driven by rising imports, in line with the expansion of domestic demand. On the export side, however, relevant shifts have been observed among different trading partners. China has lost ground due to falling prices of the main commodities ...

At cross purposes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Oct 2025

From the second quarter onward, signs of economic slowdown became increasingly evident. To ensure a consistent path toward inflation convergence at the target midpoint, it is crucial that this trend be maintained. However, the risks of interruption are far from negligible. The government has ...

Rational immunization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Oct 2025

Economic activity has proven stronger than anticipated in recent years, despite expectations of a slowdown in light of monetary policy supposedly operating in a restrictive stance. The repeated forecasting errors observed over the past four years also suggest a certain degree of persistence. ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Oct 2025

OVERVIEW LULA AND THE EFFECTS OF HIS “BODY OF WORK” ON THE ELECTIONS Several factors have triggered a pendulum movement in expectations for next year’s presidential elections. The right suffered a major setback with Jair Bolsonaro’s conviction to 27 years and 3 months in prison for an attem...

Mind the gap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2025

The Central Bank maintained its inflation projection for the relevant horizon, despite exchange rate appreciation and the slowdown in economic activity. One factor behind this decision was the upward revision of output gap estimates, reflecting the stronger-than-expected labor market dynamics. Th...

Should I stay or should I go?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Sep 2025 · 1 response

Imbalances continue to accumulate. After some improvement in the performance of public accounts in the first half of the year, largely due to the change in the disbursement date of certain expenditures, notably those related to court-ordered payments, the primary deficit is rising again. It is ex...

Slide presentation: And now for something completely different: Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Presentation · 17 Sep 2025

Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Wages are increasing well above productivity growth and tariffs imposed by the U.S. create new challenges for exports. Will changes to fiscal and monetary policy be able to address the country's challenges? View the slide presentation from our webinar, "And now f...

The other deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Sep 2025

The balance of payments has been marked by a rapid increase in the current account deficit, while the financial account remains relatively stable. Most of the deterioration in the current account stems from rising imports in a context of demand pressures, but there is also a worsening in some ser...

A budget made in Hogwarts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025

The administration has proposed a budget that, under optimistic assumptions, would result in a primary deficit of 0.17% of GDP in 2026. The projections rely on favorable revenue scenarios, which depend both on supportive economic conditions and on the approval by Congress of politically sensitive...

The consequences come afterwards
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Sep 2025

GDP grew 0.4% in the second quarter, slightly above average forecasts, 0.3%, but on top of a revised expansion in the first quarter, from 1.4% to 1.3%, that is, broadly in line. Compared to the same period last year, growth reached 2.2%, accumulating 2.5% in the first half of the year and 3.2% ov...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Sep 2025 · 1 response

The Brazil Synthesis is a monthly overview of the Brazilian economy, with commentary and charts. The report begins with a timely topical overview, and charts provide a snapshot of the economy. Uncertainty is the name of the game Tarcísio strikes the right tone, the PCC suffers a setback: ...

This side of the horizon
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2025

The appreciation of the exchange rate in 2025 has had impacts on inflation, chiefly in the category of tradable goods. It is true that much of the disinflation in this group is explained by food prices, whose behavior depends on variables beyond the exchange rate, but there are also signs of a sl...

Not so fast
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Aug 2025 · 2 responses

Despite successive adjustments, the output gap estimated by the Central Bank (BC) has shown little sensitivity to the unemployment rate in recent years. This behavior could be justified by a rapid decline in the NAIRU over the period. However, when estimating it implicitly from the BC’s reference...

The Phillips curve is alive and well
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Aug 2025

With the renewed decline in the unemployment rate, labor earnings, which are already growing significantly above productivity, are expected to face new pressures. Our estimates, based on pre-pandemic data, indicate that a 1 percentage point change in the economy’s slack, whether through an in...

Credit where credit is due
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2025

The Copom minutes revive the curious formula of the “continuation of the interruption of the rate hiking cycle,” reaffirming the end of monetary tightening without stating it outright. This is, after all, a continuation of the decision made in June, which helps explain the scarcity of significant...

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