GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

The trade surplus should exceed USD 85 billion in 2026 and in 2027, supported by rising exports and imports contained by the slowdown in activity. A significant part of this result comes from oil, favored by higher prices. Regarding remaining exports the effect of US tariffs has been relatively s...

You talk the talk; do you walk the walk?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2026

As expected, Copom unanimously decided to keep the target for the Selic rate at 13.75% per year. Consistent with the decision, there are several elements with a clearly more hawkish tone regarding the assessment of the situation. At the same time, however, these elements are softened by the re...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Nov 2026

TURBULENCE AHEAD As the information brought by Lula’s surprising re-election is processed and the political world moves into the new configuration of the board, the most relevant vectors in defining the coming months and years begin to be outlined, revealing a picture of uncertainty ahead. Names...

Expensive and Inefficient

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2026

General government expenditure in Brazil, excluding interest and transfers, amounts to 18.3% of GDP, above the median for both emerging economies and Latin American countries. Yet the return on this spending is low. Basic public services, such as education, healthcare and public security, fall sh...

The political cycle inversion exacts its (steep) price

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Oct 2026

Lula faces an unfavorable scenario in his bid for re-election. The economy is slowing down, despite the enormous stimuli, and inflation remains high, while billions are spent by the government to artificially contain fuel prices. Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro in a narrow lead, which could be larger...

The ball is in Flávio Bolsonaro's court

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Oct 2026

Flávio Bolsonaro is the frontrunner for the Presidency and, if elected, should count on support in Congress to pass important reforms. The market reacted well to the result, but sustaining this optimism depends on the new government taking advantage of the set of proposals already debated by civi...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Oct 2026

The 2026 election for President of the Republic brought frustration to those concerned about the growing mismatch between the country's potential and the paltry results reaped during the last administrations. Increasingly polarized, these administrations had presidents who governed for "their own...

Chronicle of a fiasco foretold

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Sep 2026

The government’s new budget forecasts indicate that the fiscal framework rules should be met in 2026, with the help of a spending freeze. However, in recent years, this has only been possible because the government lowered the targets, expanded deductions and resorted to parafiscal measures. On t...

Holding pattern

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Sep 2026

The Copom Minutes, in line with the statement released after last week's meeting, brought relatively few new elements to the monetary policy discussion. This reinforces our view of another 0.25 p.p. cut at the next meeting, conditional on the election outcome, given the likely behavior of the cur...

Yellow alert

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Sep 2026

The most recent activity indicators confirm the persistence of the slowdown that began in the second quarter. The intensity of this movement is surprising given the volume of stimulus to activity in an election year. The new measures effectiveness loss is partly explained by the accumulation of s...

The half empty cup(om)

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Sep 2026

BCB’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) opted once again for a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the Selic target rate, from 14.00% to 13.75% per year, as expected. It also chose to keep the statement that followed the meeting virtually unchanged, itself an indication that it intends to maintain...

The bill has come due

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 14 Sep 2026

The external backdrop was complicated by two important developments that affected short-term interest rates and, more importantly, long-term rates. First, the continuation of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, far more persistent than expected. Although it is in the economic interest of both si...

Miserable new world

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 10 Sep 2026

The 2014-2016 recession is different from previous downturns due to the delay in the recovery and by the persistent departure from the pre-crisis path. Several counterfactuals, obtained using HP and Kalman filters, indicate that 2026 GDP would be, depending on the case, 15% to 27% below the level...

Fantastic unrealism

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2026

The 2027 budget proposal projects a small primary surplus equivalent to 0.1% of GDP. In addition to falling far short of what is required to place debt on a stabilization path, the government’s estimate depends on an accelerated increase in revenues while economic activity weakens. The revenue pr...

Reality knocks at the door

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2026

GDP grew 0.5% in the second quarter, well below the figure recorded in the first quarter of 2026, although slightly better than the average forecast of 0.4%, suggesting an economic slowdown, a theme to which we had drawn attention in our most recent reports. In recent quarters, the economy has...