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Election Monitor II: National elections outcome growing more unpredictable, but more profound
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

In its first truly competitive and pluralistic elections since the dawn of democracy in 1994, the SA National Elections predictions are becoming more and more complex, and the outcome more unpredictable, leading to a blend of excitement and anxiety. Since my last Election Monitor, the Speaker of...

The South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged amid ongoing sticky inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced today that it is once again leaving the benchmark interest rate unchanged, a decision that was largely expected. This comes after the Bank’s MPC held the repurchase (repo) rate unchanged for four consecutive meeting...

SA Election Monitor 1: National elections fever is rising—and sharply so
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Mar 2024

South Africa's 2024 elections are expected to be the first of its truly democratic process. This is because since 1994, and the dawn of the new constitutional democratic order, the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC) meant that the outcomes of the national elections were highly predi...

South Africa’s current account deteriorates further in 2023 while tourism continues to recover
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

Data released by the South African Reserve Bank indicates that the deficit on South Africa’s current account widened markedly, from R34.4 billion in the third quarter to R165.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. As a ratio of GDP, the current account thus widened to a deficit of 2.3% in the f...

South Africa’s economy escaped a technical recession in Q4-2023—but only just
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Mar 2024

Real GDP figures released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) yesterday indicate that South Africa’s economy barely managed to grow in the final quarter of 2023 following a contraction of 0.2% q/q during the third quarter. During the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP recorded a growth rate of 0....

Budget 2024 underscores South Africa's fiscal challenges against the backdrop of a marked economic slowdown
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Feb 2024

Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana yesterday delivered Budget 2024, which also represented the last Budget of the 6th South African democratic administration. In his speech, the Minister made it clear that the biggest challenge to the fiscus is that “the size of the pie is not growing fast enough ...

The South African economy on shaky ground beyond the post-pandemic recovery
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 15 Feb 2024

• Bonds: The South African bond market continues to be a reflection of the levels of confidence in both the country itself and as a member of the emerging markets group. At the same time, South Africa’s own homegrown economic weaknesses have been responsible for the bulk of the vulnerability in t...

President Ramaphosa delivered his last State of the Nation Statement - more promises in a year of critical national elections
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

The State of the National Address (SONA) has become an institution even since the establishment of the democratic order in South Africa. It is an annual occasion for the Members of the Parliament (MPs) to dress up and turn the opening session of the parliament into a mini-national fashion show—di...

The South African Reserve Bank holds interest rates steady despite easing inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Jan 2024

Having gathered for its first 2024 meeting this week, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announced its interest rate decision today. And in line with the recent US Fed decision as well as market expectations, the MPC once again voted to keep the benchmark interest ra...

South Africa’s year of national elections: the ANC’s pre-election January 8 statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2024

Amidst what is likely to be the toughest year since taking power in South Africa after the fall of the apartheid government for the African National Congress (ANC), President Ramaphosa, who is both President of the governing ANC and the Republic, delivered the ANC’s customary January 8 Statement,...

South Africa’s current account deficit moderates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Dec 2023

Current account data released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) today indicates that, in the third quarter of 2023, the deficit in South Africa’s current account narrowed significantly, from R185.2 billion in the second quarter to R19.3 billion. Relative to GDP, the current account deficit...

The South African economy contracts in Q3 2023
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Dec 2023

Contrary to expectations for modest growth, the South African economy contracted by 0.2% q/q during the third quarter of 2023, following expansions during both quarters of H1 2023 (Q1: 0.4%; Q2: 0.5%). The contraction in the country’s real GDP came on the back of intensified headwinds domesticall...

Slowing growth as the South African economy labors under local and global headwinds
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 02 Nov 2023

• South Africa’s growth: The South African economy’s real GDP was 0.9% higher in H1-2023 than it was during the corresponding period in 2022. The muted GDP growth rates recorded during both the first and second quarters of 2023 indicate the South African economy is struggling under the strain...

Webinar Replay: South Africa - Outlook from the world stage
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Sep 2023

What does the BRICS Summit mean for South Africa and its outlook? What are the early emerging scenarios for its 2024 National Elections? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring Iraj Abedian as he discusses how South Africa's international and domestic politics affect ...

The South African Reserve Bank maintains its hike pause - in line with the Fed and Bank of England
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2023

The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 8.25% for the second consecutive meeting, which also left the prime lending rate at 11.75%. The continued halt keeps total interest rate increases since policy normalization began in November...

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