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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Business as usual: no policy change at today's monthly Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Aug 2025

The MNB base rate and the interest rate corridor have been kept unchanged, at 6.5% and 5.5-7.5%, respectively, and the Council saw no reason to change its forward guidance either. This outcome was in conformity with the MNB's previous communication and analyst expectations alike. In Portfolio.hu'...

Confirming the obvious: price caps will be extended beyond end-August
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2025

We had this coming from the first instance. PM Orbán has just announced that the government's administrative caps on the gross retail margins of certain food items and household goods will be upheld after August 31, when, in the legal sense at least, those measures were set to expire. He did not ...

An update on the Druzhba oil pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Aug 2025

During the night of August 22, the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region of Russia was hit by Ukrainian UAV drones, causing the whole station to go up in flames, as everyone can check by seeing the video published by the Ukrainian military. This was the fourth attack against the Druzhba oi...

The government is interfering with monetary policy once again
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2025

The often incalculable consequences of current US trade policy have proven to be quite easily calculable lately, even though probably for a short while only. Mr. Trump’s threat to impose penalty-level import tariffs on European goods has been averted, with the initially announced tariffs halved, ...

July inflation data was moderately disappointing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2025

The headline rate was reported at 0.4% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter down from 4.6% in June, core inflation fell to 0.4% mom, 4% yoy, down from 4.4% yoy in the previous month, and non-fuel inflation was 0.4% mom, 4.9% yoy, the latter falling only marginally, from 5% yoy previously: This was somewhat ...

Inflation warning: Expect the year-on-year headline rate fall significantly in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Aug 2025

CPI-inflation data for July is due in the morning tomorrow. In June, the yoy headline rate was 4.6%. Against that, analysts, including us, expect a material reduction to 4.1% yoy (the median value in Portfolio.hu's monthly analyst poll). This reduction would be due essentially to two base effects...

Industry and retail sales figures for June: no trend change seen, business as usual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025

Preliminary industrial output and retail sales data (volume growth on sda basis) for June has been reported this morning. A quick look at the fixed-base chart below (volumes, Dec 2010=100, source: KSH) serves with the easy conclusion that there has not been any change in the long-standing trends,...

Q2 GDP data met expectations, exceptionally
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Jul 2025

As we reported yesterday, all forecasters expected GDP growth to be slightly positive in Q2, after being similarly negative in Q1. And they have proven to be right. In fact, real GDP growth reached +0.4% qoq, +0.2% yoy, the former after a revised -0.1% qoq in the first quarter. This also means th...

Tariffs, secondary tariffs and Q2 GDP
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jul 2025

The preliminary Q2 GDP data is due tomorrow. Following -0.2% qoq, -0.4% yoy in Q1, Portfolio.hu's analyst poll shows a median forecast of 0.2% qoq, 0% yoy for Q2, with 0.7% average growth for this year and 2.7% growth for 2026. A short while ago, our quarterly forecast update included a slightly ...

Interest rates, assessment all kept unchanged at today's Monetary Council
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jul 2025

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held this morning. Nobody expected any change, and there was none either, except a reduction of the mandatory reserve ratio for banks, from 10% to 8%, starting from August 1. Why is the latter essentially unimportant? Because th...

Mr. Trump has launched a new threat to Hungary’s economic growth
HUNGARY · Forecast · 21 Jul 2025

External conditions have not made macro forecasting any easier over the past three months. We see two key sources of high volatility and uncertainty that complicate the life of the macro analyst. One of them is geopolitical news, as demonstrated by the most recent violent episode between Israel, ...

The elephant has entered the china shop
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Jul 2025

As his self-imposed 90-day deadline for trade talks had been passed, Mr. Trump sent out a number of letters in the past few days. Mme von der Leyen also received one, from which she learnt that the US government intended to impose a 30% general tariff on all of the EUs merchandise exports sold in...

Headline inflation up temporarily on fuel prices, core inflation markedly down in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jul 2025

The headline rate of CPI-inflation in June has been reported this morning at 0.1% mom, 4.6% yoy, the latter up from 4.4% yoy in May. This uptick was entirely due to fuel prices, which rose by 0.5% mom. Here the point is that fuel prices actually fell by 3.4% mom in June 2024, and the difference b...

Industrial output in May: from decrease to stagnation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2025

The preliminary industrial output numbers for May were not particularly strong, to say the least: -1.3% mom, -2.6% yoy. Yet, it is notable that this came after a much stronger result in April, when output actually grew by +1.5% mom, so that in the last two months together, output did not fall any...

Budapest Pride march took place without problems on June 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response

On Saturday, June 28, the annual Pride March of the LGBTQ community took place in Budapest, despite the government's express will and a previously announced police ban on the event. The march attracted between 50-100k participants, making the event the biggest Pride ever, and the second largest s...

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