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Vote-counting is now over. In the end, Tisza won 141 seats in parliament (70.9%), on 53.2% of the popular vote, whereas Fidesz has 52 seats (26.1%) on 38.6% of the popular vote. Mi Hazánk kept the remaining 6 seats in the National Assembly. This means that Tisza has a comfortable two-thirds major...

Eurozone entry criteria to be met by 2030

HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Apr 2026

Tisza's candidate for finance minister, Mr. Kármán said yesterday that the new government will aim at meeting euro introduction criteria by 2030. In short term, the new government is going to review the fiscal situation, and then propose the amendment of the 2026 budget. As part of that proposal,...

Power transfer proceeding in an orderly way so far

HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2026

President of the Republic Tamás Sulyok received the heads of the three parties elected to the new parliament separately yesterday. Following the meetings, he announced that the new parliament may be convened first in early May, and at that meeting, he will nominate Péter Magyar for prime minister...

Great changes in the first three days after the election

HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2026

Following the noisy celebration by massive crowds, mainly from the younger generations, in the late hours of Election Day, making the streets of central Budapest look a bit like a New Year's Eve, the government media went through a spectacular change in recent days. The threat of military action ...

Do not take Tisza's constitutional majority for granted yet

HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2026

Tisza obviously won the election with a great margin, and that you can take for granted. However, the situation is not quite the same clear regarding Tisza's supermajority or the lack of it.We have reported that the vote count is set to be completed only on Saturday this week. But we are now stre...

A vote count update and Magyar's introductory speech

HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026

The officially communicated election result did not change significantly overnight, but the vote count rose to 98.9%. Importantly, the 170k mail votes cast by nonresidents have been counted and included, and so the most non-transparent part of the election process has been eliminated. What remain...

Landslide election victory achieved by Tisza today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Apr 2026

With a record high 80% participation rate, Tisza reached a surprisingly clear-cut election victory today. About 84% of the domestic total vote having been counted, Tisza has 138 seats, against 54 for Fidesz and 7 for Mi Hazánk, in the new, three-party National Assembly. This represents a two-thir...

CPI-inflation moved a bit upwards in March, caps on fuel prices had a substantial impact

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026

Even though all eyes are kept on election news in these days, this morning's KSH release of the March CPI-inflation data still appears significant, offering some insight into prospects for the rest of the year. Note: Year-on-year changes in percent; Sources: KSH and own estimates Unsurprisingly, ...

Vance visit, explosives near Turk Stream not to have any significant impact on election chances

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Apr 2026

President Trump not having the time in these days, it is Vice President Vance who is set to come to Budapest, to promote PM Orbán's election chances, for a two-day visit beginning tomorrow. No one knows what else could happen at his talks with the Hungarian government, but it is a widespread view...

Voting preferences shifted in Tisza's favour in March

HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Apr 2026

Following a relatively long intermission, voting preferences measured in opinion polls appeared to shift again in March, the result being an increasing lead for Tisza against Fidesz. Eventually, five out of the seven leading pollsters - Idea, Median, Republikon, Závecz (ZRI) and 21 Kutató - publi...

Elections 2026: Polls, risks and macro outlook - Slide presentation and webinar replay

HUNGARY · Presentation · 26 Mar 2026

As Hungary's parliamentary elections approach, what are the key nuances of the system? Where are the polls pointing? How are key economic features such as growth and inflation performing and what impact could they have on the electorate? What risks are associated with the election? What would cha...

No surprise at today's Monetary Council: the base rate remains at 6.25%

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Mar 2026

The MNB base rate was kept unchanged at today's monthly rate-setting meeting, in line with expectation. For sure, we know that the pricing of forward contracts suggested that a rate increase was expected by the market, but the fact remains that analysts, including us, had been forecasting no chan...

Administrative fuel price caps look unsustainable

HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Mar 2026

The following is supposed to be an important contribution ahead of next Tuesday's (March 24) Monetary Council meeting, which is scheduled to discuss the Q1 inflation report as well. Effective March 10, the government introduced 'protected retail prices' for the most basic types of fuels, which ar...

Jumping into the dark

HUNGARY · Report · 17 Mar 2026

Less than four weeks before the election, there is no sign of any significant change in the previously known odds. On one hand, Tisza maintains a significant and even moderately increasing lead in the polls. But on the other, these surveys do not include the views of those who vote from abroad, a...

MNB is ready to intervene for the forint, offering the sale of FX to energy importers

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Mar 2026

The Monetary Council decided this afternoon to offer the sale of foreign currencies to energy importers, for the MNB to secure the availability of FX liquidity at the current increased level of import prices. As Vice Governor Kurali commented, they want to eliminate the risk that the market could...