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MNB base rate reduced by 50bps today, in line with broad-based consensus expectation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Apr 2024

The base rate went down to 7.75% at today's regular rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council. The monthly speed of the cut was thus reduced from March's 75bps and February's 100bps. Analyst widely expected this outcome; it was our prediction as well in the quarterly forecast report we release...

The end of interest rate cuts is near
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2024

Our new quarterly forecast changes moderately from the previous one, issued in January. We still expect considerable economic recovery in 2024, but we scaled back our GDP forecast given the weakness of European industry, especially car manufacturing, and the longer-than-expected time required for...

New opposition star announced his party, runs at European election in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2024

Péter Magyar, who appeared as an opposition politician just a few weeks ago, and has been ambitiously working to build himself up as a leading figure ever since then, has announced his new party (TISZA Respect and Freedom), and also the fact that this party has been registered by the National Ele...

CPI-inflation marginally down in March: no surprise at all
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2024

CPI-inflation for March came out this morning at 0.8% mom, 3.6% yoy, the latter marginally down from last month's 3.7%. This was exactly the same as analysts' median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly poll. What was driving prices up was unregulated services, household energy and fuels, ...

Poor budget, strengthening forint
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2024

The central government's cash budget did not do particularly well in March and Q1, according to fresh data from the Finance MInistry. In annualised ratio-to-GDP terms, the March deficit was recorded at 9.7%, marginally down from 9.9% one year earlier, and the Q1 total reached 12.2%, exactly the s...

February industry and retail sales show some further consolidation, though no breakthrough at all by consumer demand
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Apr 2024

KSH published February industrial output and retail sales data this morning. Industry grew by 3.5% mom, 0.1% yoy, recovering from -1.1% mom in January and a 13-month series of substantially negative data in year-on-year terms. At this moment, it is not known how the recovery was contributed to by...

Important fiscal data from the Easter Bunny's basket
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024 · 1 response

Coloured eggs, a standard part of the Easter decoration of houses and gardens in most of Central Europe, is brought by the Easter Bunny in her basket, as far as the story presented to little children is concerned. This time around, the bunny also brought about some fresh fiscal data for Easter, a...

Disturbance in the force - a high-profile revolt in Fidesz' inner circles
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2024

The last three weeks did not go particularly well for Fidesz from the domestic politics point of view. Previously, we wrote of the unfortunate case of a presidential pardon to a convicted pedophile-helper, which led to the sudden resignation of the president of the republic, the former minister o...

Base rate cut in line with analyst expectations
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2024

The Monetary Council reduced the base rate by 75bps to 8.25% at today's meeting, just as expected by private sector analysts. This means that the 100bps rate cut of late February indeed proved to be a temporary (more accurately a one-time) deviation from the previous four months' standard monthly...

Analysts expect a 75bps base rate cut tomorrow
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2024

The regular monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council is due tomorrow. Analysts responding to Portfolio.hu's usual poll have a median expectation of a 75bps base rate cut, with seven respondents forecasting this step, two expecting a 100bps rate reduction, and another two predicting on...

Conflict between the government and the MNB carries negative potential for the forint
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Mar 2024

The key story this month is the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB, which has gotten sharper recently in the wake of a Finance Ministry proposal to amend the Central Bank Act. This amendment would be about the control of the Bank’s long-existing wealth trust, which is a non-polic...

European Parliament will take the EU Commission to court on funds to Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Mar 2024

The forint is going through a difficult period indeed. This morning, it once again went to a new one-year low, reaching EURHUF 396-397 during the day. This time around, the immediate cause appears to be a new decision by the European Parliament's legal committee to sue the European Commission on ...

A bit of clarification on the ongoing conflict between the government and the MNB may be useful
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Mar 2024 · 1 response

This morning (March 11), the MNB has made an announcement on its website, claiming that Bloomberg had communicated false news and wrong conclusions about the MNB and the relationship between PM Orbán and governor Matolcsy. The MNB stressed that the Prime Minister and the Governor continue to be i...

Disinflation beat analyst expectations again in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2024

Headline inflation for February has been reported at 0.7% mom, 3.7% yoy, the latter marginally down from 3.8% in the previous month. Core inflation was only 0.2% mom, 5.1% yoy, the year-on-year rate moving down quite substantially, from the previous 6.1% yoy. Non-fuel inflation also dropped to 4....

Analysts expect slightly rising inflation data for February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2024

The February CPI-inflation data is due tomorrow. The January actual was a surprisingly low 3.8% yoy. The median expectation in Portfolio.hu's usual monthly analyst poll is 3.9% yoy (13 respondents, 3.7-4.3% forecast range). Analysts expect (slightly) increasing inflation for the first time since ...

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