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Argentina databank Jul 2 -
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NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA: POLITICAL PASSIONS IN THE...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Budapest Pride march took place without problems on June 28
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025 · 1 response
On Saturday, June 28, the annual Pride March of the LGBTQ community took place in Budapest, despite the government's express will and a previously announced police ban on the event. The march attracted between 50-100k participants, making the event the biggest Pride ever, and the second largest s...
No change in the base rate today - the MNB has become more pessimistic about the inflation outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2025
Today, the Monetary Council left the base rate unchanged at 6.5% and the interest rate corridor also an unchanged +/-1%-point around the base rate. After the meeting, governor Varga spoke about the main points of the Q2 inflation report, which is set to be presented in detail on Thursday this wee...
The MNB’s tight policy course is vindicated—once again
HUNGARY · Report · 23 Jun 2025
In the past few weeks, this is the second time we are giving this title to a piece of research. The first occasion was when the May inflation data came out with an unexpected rise in the headline rate. But we are coming back to this same conclusion again, after all that has happened, and in view ...
No base rate change is likely at Tuesday's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Jun 2025
The Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting on Tuesday, June 24. So far this year. all decisions, and indeed all votes within the Council, were for holding the base rate at 6.5%. Last time, on May 27, the Council concluded that neither domestic inflation, nor external cond...
May CPI data out, MNB's tight policy course vindicated
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jun 2025
The headline rate of CPI-inflation surprised on the upside in May. Against 4.2% yoy expected by analysts (their median forecast), the actual number was 4.4% yoy, with 0.2% inflation in May alone. The yoy rate rose from 4.2% yoy in April. Non-fuel inflation backed up to 5.2% yoy from the previous ...
May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025
For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...
Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025
Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...
Relatively good industry and retail sales data for April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025
At last, we see a month in which both industrial output and retail sales grew materially, in month-on-month volume terms, on seasonally and day-adjusted basis. As for industry, output was up 1.5% mom. Year on year, this still meant a decrease of 2.6%, but even that was way better than the -6% yoy...
Moody's affirmed their Baa2/Negative sovereign rating to Hungary on Friday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2025
This means that the government has escaped a downgrading from a key rating agency for now. But the negative outlook was maintained, and Moody's will review their rating again no later than November 28. The next review by a top-3 agency is due in a week's time, by Fitch Ratings, currently rating H...
No policy change at today's Monetary Council, as expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 May 2025
The base rate remains at 6.5%, and the interest rate corridor has also been left at 5.5-7.5%. The Council expect headline CPI-inflation close to (meaning not a lot above) the target range. They continue to aim at maintaining the stability of financial markets (in our reading this primarily means ...
Good news, bad news: a brief update to last week's monthly report
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 May 2025
Our latest monthly report was released on May 20. Here follows a list of the most important items, which have shown up since then. 1. In the report, we wrote of the decelerating trend of nominal wage growth, which is good news for inflation but bad news for growth. We referred to the fact that by...
Improving price stability but no good prospects for GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 20 May 2025
Energy prices remain favorable for importers such as Hungary, especially regarding crude oil. We still consider the occasionally repeated US threat of retaliatory tariffs on those who buy Russian energy as unlikely to materialize. However, an alternative plan by the EU to end all purchases of Rus...
Disappointing CPI data for April: cap on retail margins did not work quite as suggested previously
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 May 2025
The headline rate was 0.2% mom, 4.2% yoy, the latter down from 4.7% yoy in March, core inflation was 0.1% mom, 5% yoy, also down from 5.7% yoy in the previous month: So, it looks like the spike seen in the first two months of this year has been overcome, both headline and core fell neatly, and th...
April CPI out tomorrow: prepare for the headline rate deeply below 4%
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 May 2025 · 1 response
The headline rate went up to 5.6% yoy in February, from where it came down to 4.7% yoy in March. Against that, a further drop to below 4% in April may look extraordinary. But circumstances are extraordinary, too. For one thing, fuel prices (7.3% of the CPI basket) dropped substantially again in A...
US, EU trade policy measures work against economic growth in Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 May 2025
Well, this looks like a series of unfavourable news now. Here is a list of what we mean: 1. A few days ago, Mr. Trump's 25% tariffs on the imports of car components took effect, following a similar measure on the imports of complete cars, implemented one month earlier. Naturally, these moves affe...