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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 17
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Messrs. Putin and Trump are coming to Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025
It was only two days ago that we wrote in our forecast report that Hungary's foreign relations are developing now with all eyes kept on the upcoming parliamentary election, and that the roles are clearly distributed: Messrs. Putin and Trump support PM Orbán, whereas the European mainstream suppor...
All eyes on the budget, debt ratings and the ballot boxes
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Oct 2025
Our quarterly forecast update is based on two main technical assumptions. One is that US and, indirectly, global trade policies will remain the same as they were known at the end of September 2025. This should include primarily the tariffs agreed between the US and the EU during the summer, and a...
No downgrade from S&P, Governor reconfirms tight MNB policy course
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Oct 2025
S&P said yesterday that they did not change their BBB-/Negative rating for the Hungarian government, on the occasion of their second and last review date for that rating in 2025. S&P did not even issue a new assessment for Hungary this time. So for now, the government have avoided the threat of f...
September CPI-inflation marginally better than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Oct 2025
The headline rate remained unchanged at 4.3% yoy for the third consecutive month in September, on zero inflation in this single month, just as it happened in August. Core inflation was unchanged as well, at 3.9% yoy, also on unchanged prices on average in September alone. The media appears to be ...
Mr. Nagy speaks as well: the policy story continues
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
We apologise for coming back the second time within a single day. But as it happens, Mr. Nagy, the economy minister, appearing at the Budapest Economic Forum this morning, picked up the policy topic already touched upon by PM Orbán yesterday, and it seems that the two sets of comments need to be ...
August retail and industry figures: one mediocre, one miserable, plus an interesting comment from PM Orbán on central bank policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Oct 2025
Retail sales (volumes, seasonally and day-adjusted) grew 0.8% mom, 2.3% yoy, the latter following +2% yoy in July and +3.1% yoy in Q2. The fix-based KSH chart (Dec 2010=100) looks as follows: As it is optically observable as well, retail sales remain on a generally ascending trend, but the pace o...
Excellent new fiscal data for H1 2025, paradoxically requiring the continuation of tight MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2025
The Eurostat-methodology figures for the government sector deficit, the main indicator for fiscal policy, was published for H1 2025 yesterday. The deficit ratio was surprisingly low, only 0.7% of GDP in that period. This result could raise eyebrows on the market, given the cash deficit ratio of t...
A misquoted statement by PM Orbán, on alleged spy drones in Ukraine's airspace
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
A few days ago, President Zelenskyy accused Hungary of sending a spy drone into Ukrainian airspace on two occasions, both observed on September 26. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine even published maps to illustrate their claim, showing the alleged flying path of the Hungarian dron...
New inflation report does not point to a lower MNB base rate in the foreseeable future
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2025
The monthly rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council was held three days ago, and the Q3 inflation report was published yesterday. At the meeting, no rate or other policy action was taken, and the existing "careful and patien" policy approach, together with the Council's hawkish forward guida...
Headwinds to imports of Russian oil are intensifying
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Following the obvious failure of his Alaska initiative, President Trump has decided to move to Ukraine's side most recently. On different occasions and through various means, including his own social media platform, his energy minister, and also talking at a press conference at the UN general ass...
Strong-forint policy has become more accentuated
HUNGARY · Report · 11 Sep 2025
The authorities’ desire to reduce inflation before the election has become more evident than at any time previously. The government cabinet has decided to extend the existing caps on retail margins, and the Economy Minister has hinted at a postponement of an excise tax increase originally planned...
Russian drones in NATO airspace: Hungary unaffected, PM Orbán has taken side with Poland
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Sep 2025
The violation of Polish airspace by more than a dozen Russian drones (all of which have been intercepted by US and Polish airplanes) during the night did not affect Hungary (see the chart below). PM Orbán has issued a brief statement in the morning: 'Hungary expresses its full solidarity with Pol...
August CPI data marks no change in inflation prospects
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025
The headline rate was 0% mom, 4.3% yoy, the latter unchanged from the previous month. Core inflation moved a bit down, to 3.9% yoy from July's 4% yoy, whereas non-fuel inflation rose a bit, to 5% yoy in August from 4.9% yoy in the previous month. Note: Yoy changes in percent, data right of the ve...
An unusual development: strengthening industrial output and weakening retail sales in July
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2025
In recent months, this typically went the other way round. But anyway, the facts are the following: Industrial output grew by 2% mom in July, reducing the yoy decrease to 1.6% in that month, after a 3.6% yoy decrease in Q2. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) looked like this: So, ...
There seems to be peace and fundamental agreement between the Economy Minister and the MNB Governor
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2025
This is something we have not seen for a long time, and especially not in the last almost two years of Mr. Matolcsy's period at the MNB. The domestic event of the week is the regular annual gathering of the Hungarian Economic Association, a high-profile conference where both Minister Nagy and Gov...