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As reported yesterday, the median analyst expectation for September headline CPI-inflation was 1.8% yoy, up from 1.3% in the previous month. But the actual figure was 0.2% mom, 1.6% yoy only. Fuel prices indeed rose 5.9% mom, maybe a bit less than expected, but non-fuel inflation was actually -0....

Three new data reports (industry, retail sales, budget) and one data preview (CPI)

HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Oct 2026

Well, this is more good than bad, but not entirely good, we would say. 1. Industrial output grew 1% mom, 8.7% yoy in August. This looks quite impressive on the fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100) below, though it still does not reflect a broad-based upswing of industrial activity. The upturn was co...

Retail margin caps may be lifted quite soon

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Oct 2026 · 1 response

Two days ago, PM Magyar visited the economically less prosperous north-eastern region of Hungary, on the occasion that the newly established National Asset Recovery and Protection Agency (NVVH) previously took into custody a former economy minister of the Fidesz government in the 2010s, not long ...

A brief comment on recent MNB talk

HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2026

Last Tuesday (September 22), the Monetary Council halted its three-month long loosening 'mini-cycle', raised its inflation forecast for the next five quarters and reduced its medium-term inflation target to 2.5% from 3%, although the latter only from January 2028 (which matters very little in pra...

MNB will indeed lower its inflation target, but only from January 2028

HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Sep 2026

There has not been too much surprise heard from today's Monetary Council meeting. The base rate was indeed held at 5.5%, and the inflation target is indeed set to go lower, to 2.5%, just as Bloomberg predicted already a few weeks ago. Somewhat surprisingly though, Governor Varga said after the me...

Anti-corruption efforts shifted to a higher gear

HUNGARY · In Brief · 18 Sep 2026

The draft budget for 2027 will be presented to the Fiscal Council, from which point it can be regarded as publicly known, on October 17, PM Magyar said today. For the average citizen, that plan will include good news and bad news alike, but possibly more bad than good, given the conflict between ...

Important government and MNB decisions are coming: one step closer to euro-convergence?

HUNGARY · Report · 15 Sep 2026

An introductory period for the Tisza government ended in August. The three most important Fidesz-appointed top public officials, who represented a permanent threat to government activities, have been replaced, and conditions for EU funding have also been met, opening the way to the overwhelming m...

August CPI and budget numbers require a close look from analysts

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Sep 2026

We have just received the August CPI-inflation data, which looks kind of all right at first glance, but is not at all very good after all, and the August cash budget figures, which look ugly, while being quite favourable after a closer look. So, the 0.2% mom, 1.3% yoy August CPI-inflation data lo...

Industry and retail sales continued to strengthen in July

HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Sep 2026

Industrial output grew by 1.7% mom, 4.5% yoy in July, following 3.5% yoy growth in Q2 and 1% yoy expansion in Q1. The fixed-base chart (Dec 2010 = 100; source: KSH) clearly shows an appreciably stable trend of material strengthening since the start of this year: Even more strength could be seen i...

Looks like the MNB may have intervened for the forint verbally yesterday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Sep 2026 · 1 response

Following a short period of weakening on external factors, which we dealt with in our previous note two days ago, the forint gained strength again yesterday, after a 'rumour' reported by Bloomberg that afternoon. The news was that at the next rate-setting meeting on September 22, the Monetary Cou...

Most recent forint weakening is entirely due to external factors

HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Sep 2026

The forint's weakening against EUR and USD, seen so far this week, does not really point in the direction of another base rate cut in September. But it is important to know that it can be traced back entirely to external factors, such as Russia/Ukraine, the Middle East, global energy prices and a...

The deadline for RRF (and cohesion funds) conditionality expires today

HUNGARY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2026 · 1 response

At stake is €16.4bn, of which RRF is €10bn, two-thirds in grants and the rest in loans. All conditions are to be met and all utilisation of the RRF needs to be completed by the close of play tonight, or else the RRF funds will be partially or fully lost for Hungary. Earlier today, Minister of Tra...

MNB base rate down by another 25bps today, future path remains uncertain

HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Aug 2026 · 1 response

Today's 25bps reduction of the MNB base rate, to 5.5%, was exactly as expected, given the MNB's own forecast of late June, and the latest excellent CPI-inflation reading for July. However, the rate reduction 'mini-cycle', as Governor Varga called it two months ago, is now over, and Mr. Varga hims...

Electricity production at Paks nuclear power plant to be restored to full capacity this week

HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Aug 2026

Currently, Paks is producing at nearly three-fourth of its full capacity (see the Chart below). Within the next two days, output is going to be restored to full capacity, according to current plans. Output at the Paks nuclear power plant at 11:53 CEST on August 24, 2026 Source: Portfolio.hu Previ...

Lots of good news, yet critical times are coming

HUNGARY · Report · 19 Aug 2026

The end of summer is approaching, and it is difficult not to see a remarkable sequence of recent good news. GDP continued to grow in Q2; CPI-inflation fell to a ten-year low in July; a massive budget surplus occurred in the first three months after Tisza’s takeover; the forint remains strong, sup...