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Fitch Ratings' outlook on their BBB sovereign rating went from Stable to Negative yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Dec 2025

Fitch Ratings held the H2 review of their Hungary sovereign rating yesterday, also ending the late-in-the-year review season for the Top-3 rating agencies as regards 2025. The agency affirmed the government's BBB rating, but changed the outlook to Negative from Stable on this occasion:Fitch attri...

Hungary's supply of Russian crude oil is not affected by recent Ukrainian hit at the Druzhba pipeline
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

On December 1, Ukraine hit the Druzhba oil pipeline system once again, causing an explosion and another break in the continuity of oil shipments. Subsequently, reports like the following one have appeared in the media:However, this does not appear to be correct. As widely known, Druzhba indeed tr...

Another hurdle passed: Moody's affirmed its Baa2/Negative sovereign credit rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Nov 2025

On Friday, November 28, Moody's affirmed its investment grade credit rating for the Hungarian government, despite fears that a negative rating decision may follow the most recent loosening up of fiscal targets for this year and 2026. There is only one rating review date still scheduled by a Top-3...

Puzzle of the month: Is Hungary exempt and protected?
HUNGARY · Report · 24 Nov 2025

Energy remains a key policy concern. On one hand, gas and oil import prices have fallen non-seasonally in recent weeks, generating a substantial terms-of-trade gain and invaluable support for the balance of payments. On the other hand, new US sanctions against leading Russian energy companies and...

Changing positions in the MNB and the Monetary Council should not have any impact on monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Nov 2025

Today's news is the sudden resignation of Barnabás Virág, vice governor of the MNB, who is to be replaced by Péter Benő Banai, currently senior advisor to Governor Varga, and formerly the secretary of state responsible for the government budget in Mr. Varga's Finance Ministry, and for a limited p...

Analysts expect a base rate cut only in H2 2026
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Nov 2025

The Monetary Council is set to hold its regular monthly rate-setting meeting tomorrow. Analysts participating in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll uniformly expect the 6.5% base rate to hold on this occasion. Indeed, it would be just very surprising if the Council decided to go for a rate cut, after it...

A lot to digest for today: October CPI, fiscal loosening, and a "protective shield" from the US
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

The October CPI-inflation data, reported this morning, is almost normal, although not exactly a reason for enthusiasm, due to rising yoy core inflation. Monthly headline inflation was zero for the third consecutive period, leaving the yoy rate at 4.3%, also entirely unchanged since July. Core inf...

Results of the Trump-Orbán meeting appear significant, although somewhat unclear
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2025

PM Orbán travelled to Washington DC in the past few days, and he met President Trump on November 7. Mr. Orbán travelled with a large mission, including the foreign, defense and economy ministers, a number of top businessmen and the number of media people needed to make big publicity around the vi...

Industry and retail sales all remained normal in September
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The preliminary Q3 GDP growth data was reported already a week ago (0% qoq, +0.6% yoy), but the September monthly industry and retail sales numbers are still something to be noticed, at least as a matter of regular housekeeping. Industrial output grew 1.3% mom and fell 1.7% yoy in volume terms, s...

Quick update on the refinery fire and US sanctions against Russia
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Nov 2025

MOL's refinery at Százhalombatta (called Dufi for short), the only one in Hungary, was hit by a major fire on October. It affected the biggest of the refinery's three distillation units, which represents about 40% of total capacity.  A few days later, they started to gradually restart the unaffec...

Still no GDP growth in Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Oct 2025

GDP remained stagnant in Q3, with 0% qoq growth in real terms, seasonally and day-adjusted, according to KSH's preliminary data published today. This implied 0.6% yoy growth, following 0.2% yoy in Q2 and -0.3% yoy in Q1. In the first three quarters together, GDP expanded by 0.2% yoy only. As the ...

New US sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil unlikely to thwart Hungary's oil imports from Russia in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2025 · 1 response

There seems to be some lack of certainty about the likely short-term consequences of the new US sanctions on Hungary's oil imports from Russia. We stress short-term, because the long-term prospect is that EU policies keep systematically moving towards eventually, and most probably within two year...

Refinery fire to affect inflation prospects, reduce potential for cutting the base rate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Oct 2025 · 1 response

New information regarding yesterday's fire at MOL's oil refinery suggests that the plant has temporarily lost about 40% of its productive capacity for a yet unknown period. Initial estimates for the time required to repair the damaged capacities range from a few weeks to several months. As we sai...

Fire at Hungary's only oil refinery, damage unknown yet, domestic supply of refined products remains safe
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Oct 2025

Last night, a serious fire broke out at Dunai Kőolajfinomító (DUFI), Hungary's only oil refinery. DUFI is owned by MOL Group, a publicly-traded company, in which the government owns a controlling stake. According to MOL, the fire affected the biggest one out of the refinery's three distillation u...

Messrs. Putin and Trump are coming to Budapest
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

It was only two days ago that we wrote in our forecast report that Hungary's foreign relations are developing now with all eyes kept on the upcoming parliamentary election, and that the roles are clearly distributed: Messrs. Putin and Trump support PM Orbán, whereas the European mainstream suppor...

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