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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 14 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 25
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 10
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Israel September CPI – a sharp downside surprise strengthens the case for rate cuts
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Oct 2025
September CPI surprise: inflation eases sharply to 2.5%, driven by stronger shekel and seasonal factorsIsrael’s consumer price index fell by 0.6% in September, double our forecast for a 0.3% decline. As a result, annual inflation eased to 2.5%, its lowest since February 2024. The decline clearly ...
Israel shifts from war to recovery; focus shifts to September CPI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025
Overview The 20 live hostages were released and returned to Israel this morning, after two years in Hamas captivity, as part of the first stage of the ceasefire agreement. In parallel, Israel began releasing Palestinian prisoners. U.S. President Donald Trump, widely viewed in Israel as the key br...
A day of hope for Israelis and Palestinians, as Trump announces Gaza ceasefire: Analysis and implications
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025
Overnight, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas have signed the first phase of his Gaza peace plan, including an agreement for a ceasefire, the release of all hostages, a large-scale release of Palestinian prisoners, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces to an agreed line. A...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 6, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Oct 2025
This week, Israel returned from an extended Yom Kippur weekend to a single trading day (Sunday) before entering another holiday break for Sukkot. During the intermediate days of the holiday (Chol HaMoed, Wednesday, Thursday, and Sunday), business and financial activity will take place on a limite...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 1, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 30 Sep 2025
In the past week, Israeli markets and policy were shaped by two dominant forces: geopolitics and monetary policy. On the geopolitical side, Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan dominated headlines, offering a comprehensive framework that received broad international support but faces uncertainty around Ham...
Bank of Israel rate decision: hawkish tone, but Trump plan could pave way for easing
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
The Bank of Israel kept its policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with market expectations. In our view, the tone was slightly hawkish relative to expectations, emphasizing geopolitical uncertainty, sticky inflation, and the need to maintain financial stability. The wording was chosen to highlig...
Trump’s Gaza plan: broad support abroad, uncertainty over Hamas approval, rising likelihood of early elections in Israel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Sep 2025
Key takeaway: Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan has gained broad international and Arab support, but Hamas’s acceptance remains uncertain. In Israel, the plan currently enjoys political backing, though risks remain that Israel could withdraw from the understandings under political pressure or if Hamas s...
Rate decision preview: Bank of Israel to hold rates; updated macro forecast in focus
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Sep 2025
Most forecasters (including us) expect no change in the policy rate on Monday. Why do we believe the Bank of Israel will keep rates unchanged? August’s CPI, published on September 16, surprised to the upside with a 0.7% monthly increase. While annual inflation declined to 2.9%, back within the Ba...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 22, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 22 Sep 2025
Last week was dominated by geopolitics, as Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Super Sparta” speech raised fears of economic fallout and deepened Israel’s diplomatic isolation. Markets reacted negatively, while the failed strike on Hamas leaders in Doha further strained ties with Arab states. We outlined...
Israel labor & demography: three prints, one message
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Sep 2025
We got three data points this week on the labor market and demography, and they all point the same way: the labor market remains tight. Demand for workers is increasing, while labor supply is constrained by reservist service and net emigration. That combination keeps wage and price pressures aliv...
August print analysis: Housing and seasonality pushed inflation up;
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Sep 2025
August’s CPI rose 0.7% m/m slightly above our expectations for 0.6% rise, bringing headline inflation to 2.9% y/y, slightly below the upper bond of the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal reading: Airfares increased 17% and domestic holidays 12%, both...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 15, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The focal point last week was Israel’s unprecedented strike in Doha against the Hamas leadership. From Israel’s perspective, the operation fell short of its objective, as senior Hamas figures were apparently not present in the targeted building. The move drew criticism abroad, including from Wash...
Q2 current account surplus narrows; Israelis invest more abroad, while foreign inflows remain resilient
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Yesterday we got some surprisingly weak data from Israel’s current account. The surplus narrowed dramatically to just $0.6 billion in Q2 2025, down from $5.4 billion in Q1. This is the lowest surplus recorded since Q4 2012, signaling a worrying trend for the Israeli economy. The trade deficit wid...
August CPI preview: high monthly inflation of 0.6% is expected, but yearly inflation to fall below the upper bound of the target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2025
On Monday ((tomorrow), Israel will release the August CPI print, which we will be watching closely. We expect a 0.6% monthly increase, which would bring annual inflation down to around 2.8%, below the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target range for the first time since September 2024. August has histo...
Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025
Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...