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Next week in focus: February CPI, the 2026 state budget, and the third week of the war
ISRAEL · Report · 13 Mar 2026

Next week we focus on three closely linked developments: the war with Iran as it enters its third week, the February CPI to be released on Sunday, and the progress of the 2026 state budget. We estimate that the February CPI will rise by about 0.1%, still reflecting economic conditions prior to th...

The U.S.–Israel war with Iran: macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, March 10, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 10 Mar 2026

Headlines: - Missile attacks toward Israel have declined since the first days of the war, but Hezbollah activity on the northern front has increased. Yesterday, Hezbollah launched a missile toward central Israel, claiming it targeted a satellite communications facility. - At this stage, the t...

February budget data show strong revenue growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

Against the backdrop of the war entering its 10th day, the Ministry of Finance yesterday published the budget results for February. As in previous months, the data surprised on the upside, with government revenues exceeding expectations. In real terms and at constant tax rates, tax revenues in Ja...

Israel weekly preview: missile fire declines but endgame unclear as pressure on Iran rises; budget deadline and key economic data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Mar 2026

A difficult week has passed for Israel since early Saturday morning, when the second Israel-Iran war began. For most of the week, large parts of the economy were effectively shut down, and missile launches toward Israel from Iran and later from Hezbollah sent Israelis repeatedly to shelters throu...

Wage growth eases despite a tight labor market
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Today the Central Bureau of Statistics published wage data for January. When we analyze the figures, we see a clear slowdown in the pace of wage growth in the final quarter of 2025. Trend data show that nominal wages increased by 2.2% in current prices between October and December 2025, compared ...

The second Israel-Iran war: the risks of a prolonged confrontation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Mar 2026

After three days of war, several key facts are beginning to emerge: The Israeli-U.S. opening move appears to be a significant operational success. The combination of prior intelligence and highly precise strikes by both countries resulted in the targeted killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, February 27, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Feb 2026

This week’s data pointed to a gradually moderating economy, with softer momentum toward the end of 2025, particularly in high-tech and industry. Revenue and industrial data show some deceleration, while the Bank of Israel’s activity index still signals expansion at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, t...

Bank of Israel keeps rate at 4%, policy statement turns slightly more hawkish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0% on February 23. As we wrote yesterday, the decision came as no surprise to us. The Bank outlined the main considerations behind its decision not to lower the policy rate. First, the latest economic data did not justify a third ...

Policy rate likely to remain unchanged today amid resilient activity data, tight labor market and security tensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

Following the publication of the Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity and the latest job-vacancy data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, we maintain our assessment that there is a high probability the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.0% today. The data point to con...

Israel geopolitics and macro - outlook for the week ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2026

Rising war tensions with Iran pressure markets as Gaza peace plan begins to take shape This week was marked by rising tensions with Iran, which translated into growing nervousness in financial markets, ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Reports of a possible U.S. strike and increased mi...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...

Israel’s GDP numbers: Growth moderates, exports surged in Q4
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows that Israel’s GDP grew by 4% (annualized), slowing from an upwardly revised 12.7% in the third quarter (previously reported as 11.1%). The GDP fell sharply in Q2 2025 after the economy shut down for two weeks due to the war. Although activ...

Inflation moderates in January; probability of February rate cut rises
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2026

Israel’s consumer price index, published yesterday, surprised slightly to the downside, falling by 0.3% in January 2026, compared with our forecast of a 0.2% decline and a 0.1%-0.2% decline in the consensus forecast. As a result, annual inflation eased to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2021. T...

Israel macro preview: key inflation and growth data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

Next week finally provides hard data to work with. On Sunday, the Central Bureau of Statistics will publish the January CPI, the first inflation print of 2026. On Monday, it will release the Q4 and full-year 2025 national accounts, which will allow a more comprehensive assessment of how the econo...

Israeli fiscal deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal surplus of NIS 16.9 billion ($5.3 billion) in January 2026, with the trailing 12-month deficit increasing to 4.9% of GDP, from 4.7% in December. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Direct taxes surprised on the upside, while indire...

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