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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 12 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Aug 27
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Chile databank Aug 26
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 2
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Dominican Republic databank Aug 21
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Ecuador databank Aug 25
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 12
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Hungary databank Sep 11
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Aug 14
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Poland databank Jul 16
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Russia Economics databank Sep 15
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South Africa databank Sep 5
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Sep 2
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - TURKEY POLITICS: CHP VS. GOLIATH...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 15, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Sep 2025
The focal point last week was Israel’s unprecedented strike in Doha against the Hamas leadership. From Israel’s perspective, the operation fell short of its objective, as senior Hamas figures were apparently not present in the targeted building. The move drew criticism abroad, including from Wash...
Q2 current account surplus narrows; Israelis invest more abroad, while foreign inflows remain resilient
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2025
Yesterday we got some surprisingly weak data from Israel’s current account. The surplus narrowed dramatically to just $0.6 billion in Q2 2025, down from $5.4 billion in Q1. This is the lowest surplus recorded since Q4 2012, signaling a worrying trend for the Israeli economy. The trade deficit wid...
August CPI preview: high monthly inflation of 0.6% is expected, but yearly inflation to fall below the upper bound of the target
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2025
On Monday ((tomorrow), Israel will release the August CPI print, which we will be watching closely. We expect a 0.6% monthly increase, which would bring annual inflation down to around 2.8%, below the Bank of Israel’s 3% upper target range for the first time since September 2024. August has histo...
Encouraging August fiscal data for the Treasury, but risks persist ahead of the 2026 budget
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2025
Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance published positive budget data for August. Revenues came in stronger than expected, while the deficit narrowed more than anticipated, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.7% of GDP from 4.8% in July. The improvement largely reflects a sharp accelera...
Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, September 8, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Sep 2025
This is the first of a new series of weekly reports in which we will review and analyze the week's geopolitical and macroeconomic developments and provide an outlook on both. In geopolitics, the main event of the past week continued to be the government’s decision to push ahead with the conque...
Israel launches Gaza ground offensive, raising growth and fiscal risks
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Sep 2025
Yesterday, some 40,000 reservists got emergency call-ups as Israel prepares for the “Chariots of Gideon II” operation. The plan is described as a step-by-step move to take control of Gaza. Most senior security officials opposed the government’s decision to start the operation. They preferred the ...
Israel slows bond issuance in September, but fiscal risks point to higher borrowing ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 27 Aug 2025
The government’s monthly issuance plan for September 2025 is to raise NIS 11.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 2.75 billion per week. This marks a slower pace than in previous months: In July, issuance totaled NIS 12.37 billion, after a ...
Bank of Israel holds rates; future easing less likely as Gaza operation gets underway
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2025
As we expected, the Bank of Israel kept the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.5% yesterday, for the 13th consecutive meeting. The tone was cautious and hawkish, with emphasis on inflation risks, geopolitical uncertainty, and a tight labor market. The bank also mentioned signs of a rapid recovery afte...
Bank of Israel expected to hold rates tomorrow; window for Q4 easing exists
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Aug 2025
The Bank of Israel is expected to announce its key policy rate decision tomorrow (Wednesday, August 20). We do not expect a rate cut at this meeting. Why wait: Headline inflation has eased but remains above the 3% upper bound. The BoI continues to warn of labor-supply-driven price pressures, incl...
Sharp drop in GDP in Q2 not only due to the war with Iran; Gaza war poses growth risks ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025 · 1 response
Preliminary data for Q2 GDP show an annualized contraction of about 3.5%. The decline reflects the impact of the Israel-Iran war at the end of the quarter, which led to a partial shutdown of the economy in the last two weeks of June. Compared to a year earlier, GDP increased by 1.6%, but relative...
July print analysis: housing and seasonality pushed inflation up; the shekel offset some of the pressure
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2025
July’s CPI rose 0.4% m/m in line with our expectations, leaving headline inflation at 3.1% y/y, still slightly above the target range of the central bank (1%-3%). The print was a classic summer seasonal mix: Airfares increased 11% and domestic holidays 6.6%, both pushing up the index, while cloth...
July CPI preview: inflation to remain above target, Gaza operation endangers rate-cut prospects
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Aug 2025
Tomorrow (Friday) we will get July’s CPI print, and we will be watching it closely. We expect a 0.3%-0.4% monthly increase, which would keep annual inflation at around 3.1%, still above the Bank of Israel’s 1%-3% target range. July is typically a low-to-moderate CPI month, with an average monthly...
Israel’s July fiscal data: deficit narrows, but risks rise from Gaza takeover plan
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Aug 2025
The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal deficit of NIS 4.7 billion ($1.4 billion) in July, with the trailing 12-month deficit narrowing to 4.8% of GDP from 5% in June. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Tax revenues in July totaled NIS 46.4 billion and reached NIS 306 b...
Foreigners were the dominant segment supporting shekel appreciation in Q2
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Aug 2025
The Israeli shekel appreciated significantly in Q2 2025, gaining approximately 9.3% against the US dollar and 1.5% against the euro, driven by improved investor sentiment following Operation “Am KeLavi” and broad-based dollar weakness in global markets. The shekel also strengthened by 6% in effec...
Israeli geopolitics: August 2025—dangerous stalemates on all fronts
ISRAEL · Report · 05 Aug 2025
Key takeaways from this report: Gaza ceasefire talks remain stalled: Negotiations between Israel and Hamas have collapsed over core disputes, including the extent of Israeli withdrawal, a commitment to ending the war, and the scope of prisoner exchanges. Efforts by mediators continue, but no b...