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Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments - Weekly report, February 27, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Feb 2026

This week’s data pointed to a gradually moderating economy, with softer momentum toward the end of 2025, particularly in high-tech and industry. Revenue and industrial data show some deceleration, while the Bank of Israel’s activity index still signals expansion at the start of 2026. Meanwhile, t...

Bank of Israel keeps rate at 4%, policy statement turns slightly more hawkish
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

The Bank of Israel kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.0% on February 23. As we wrote yesterday, the decision came as no surprise to us. The Bank outlined the main considerations behind its decision not to lower the policy rate. First, the latest economic data did not justify a third ...

Policy rate likely to remain unchanged today amid resilient activity data, tight labor market and security tensions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 23 Feb 2026

Following the publication of the Bank of Israel’s Monthly Index of Economic Activity and the latest job-vacancy data from the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics, we maintain our assessment that there is a high probability the policy rate will remain unchanged at 4.0% today. The data point to con...

Israel geopolitics and macro - outlook for the week ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Feb 2026

Rising war tensions with Iran pressure markets as Gaza peace plan begins to take shape This week was marked by rising tensions with Iran, which translated into growing nervousness in financial markets, ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Reports of a possible U.S. strike and increased mi...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 18, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2026

Israel’s economy continues the transition from a war economy to a more post-war period with a moderate growth phase. While activity remains expansionary, momentum is easing, and growth is increasingly export-led, with domestic demand still relatively weak. Geopolitical developments remain a key s...

Israel’s GDP numbers: Growth moderates, exports surged in Q4
ISRAEL · In Brief · 17 Feb 2026

The initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows that Israel’s GDP grew by 4% (annualized), slowing from an upwardly revised 12.7% in the third quarter (previously reported as 11.1%). The GDP fell sharply in Q2 2025 after the economy shut down for two weeks due to the war. Although activ...

Inflation moderates in January; probability of February rate cut rises
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Feb 2026

Israel’s consumer price index, published yesterday, surprised slightly to the downside, falling by 0.3% in January 2026, compared with our forecast of a 0.2% decline and a 0.1%-0.2% decline in the consensus forecast. As a result, annual inflation eased to 1.8%, its lowest level since June 2021. T...

Israel macro preview: key inflation and growth data ahead
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

Next week finally provides hard data to work with. On Sunday, the Central Bureau of Statistics will publish the January CPI, the first inflation print of 2026. On Monday, it will release the Q4 and full-year 2025 national accounts, which will allow a more comprehensive assessment of how the econo...

Israeli fiscal deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in January
ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Feb 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported a fiscal surplus of NIS 16.9 billion ($5.3 billion) in January 2026, with the trailing 12-month deficit increasing to 4.9% of GDP, from 4.7% in December. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in September 2024. Direct taxes surprised on the upside, while indire...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 9, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Feb 2026

Israel’s political arena remains highly turbulent, centered on three interlinked fronts: the 2026 state budget, which must be approved by March 31; the military conscription legislation, which remains stalled at the level of legal advisers; and, more recently, Prime Minister Netanyahu’s publicati...

Institutional FX sales drive shekel appreciation, following non-resident flows in Q2–Q3
ISRAEL · In Brief · 04 Feb 2026

Since September 2024, the shekel has strengthened markedly, reaching multi-year highs and outperforming most major currencies. Over this period, the shekel has appreciated by around 18% against the U.S. dollar, about 23% against the Japanese yen, and roughly 12% against the euro. At the same time...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, February 3, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 03 Feb 2026

Recent data point to a clearer improvement in Israel’s macroeconomic fundamentals toward year-end 2025, supported by a rebound in activity, strong high-tech exports, and easing inflationary pressures. The recent upgrade in Israel’s credit outlook will reinforce confidence in the macro-fiscal envi...

Israel enters 2026 with lower financing needs, despite higher bond issuance in February
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Feb 2026

The government’s monthly issuance plan for February 2026 is to raise NIS 12.0 billion in tradable bonds on the local capital market in four weekly tenders, averaging NIS 3 billion per week. This represents a slightly higher pace than in recent months. In 2025, average monthly issuance stood at ar...

The Knesset approved the budget in its first reading, increasing the likelihood that it will also pass its second and third readings by March
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 Jan 2026

Israel’s Knesset has approved the 2026 state budget in its first reading, by a 62-55 majority, following negotiations with ultra-Orthodox parties. The proposed budget must still pass second and third readings by March 31; failure to do so would trigger the dissolution of the Knesset and early ele...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, January 26, 2026
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Jan 2026

This week’s update is dominated by geopolitical uncertainty, with rising tensions surrounding Iran. At this stage, a U.S. military strike is not a certain outcome, and developments could still evolve toward increased diplomatic pressure or a negotiated arrangement. Nevertheless, the risk of escal...

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