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Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, December 2, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2025

This week in Israel was once again dominated by political developments. The government is pushing to pass the Draft Bill quickly to secure ultra-Orthodox support ahead of the planned November elections, yet resistance within the coalition and among the public continues to intensify. Prime Ministe...

Israeli startup funding accelerates to $1.4bn in November, supporting sentiment for the shekel
ISRAEL · In Brief · 02 Dec 2025

In November 2025, Israeli startups raised approximately $1.4 billion, bringing total fundraising this year to $15 billion. Overall, in 2024, Israeli companies raised $11.6 billion, up 16.3% from $9.9 billion raised in 2023, and following $20 billion raised in 2022 and a record $34 billion raised ...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 25, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Nov 2025

More than a month after the Gaza ceasefire, Israel’s strategic environment remains unstable. Military gains in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran have not translated into durable political arrangements. In Lebanon, Hezbollah's rearming and tensions have intensified following recent Israeli strikes. In Gaza,...

Bank of Israel rate decision - high likelihood of a cut today
ISRAEL · In Brief · 24 Nov 2025

The Bank of Israel is widely expected to cut rates today for the first time since January 2024, bringing the policy rate from 4.50% to 4.25%. Market pricing implies a 70%-75% probability of a rate cut at today’s meeting. The key driver is the decline in inflation: Headline CPI stands at 2.5% y/y ...

Inflation expectations remain anchored at the 2% range; activity softens ahead of MPC decision
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Nov 2025

The Bank of Israel published its latest update on inflation expectations yesterday, showing that short-term expectations remain low, around the 2% range, close to the midpoint of the Bank’s target. One-year expectations from the capital market averaged 1.9%, while the average 12-month projection ...

Weekly macroeconomic update, November 17, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 17 Nov 2025

This week’s market focus centered on two key releases: the October CPI and the Q3 GDP figures. Together, they offer an updated view of the economy’s post-war momentum and inflation environment ahead of the Bank of Israel’s November 24 rate decision. The GDP surged 12.4% (annualized) in Q3 as acti...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, November 12, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Nov 2025

Geopolitical tensions intensified along Israel’s northern border following massive military strikes against Hezbollah, while Phase-Two ceasefire talks in Gaza show little progress meanwhile. Domestically, the recent leak of classified investigation materials, which led to the dismissal of the Mil...

Deficit edges up to 4.9% of GDP in October; Finance Ministry’s 2026 target of 3.2% seen as overly ambitious
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 Nov 2025

Fiscal deficit widens to 4.9% of GDP in October The Ministry of Finance reported yesterday a fiscal deficit of NIS 15.3 billion ($4.64 billion) in October, with the trailing 12-month deficit slightly increasing to 4.9% of GDP from 4.7% in September. The budget deficit peaked at 8.5% of GDP in Sep...

Israel Governor signals conditions are ready for a rate cut, provided October CPI and Q3 growth remain moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron hinted at a possible interest-rate cut ahead of the bank’s November 24 decision. Speaking at a conference on Tuesday, he said the September CPI, which fell by 0.6%, was “a step in the right direction.” Yaron noted that the shekel’s appreciation and the expected ...

Foreign and institutional investors sold FX in Q3, supporting the shekel’s appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The shekel continued to strengthen in the third quarter, appreciating by 2.0% against the U.S. dollar and 1.9% against the euro, following sharp gains of 9.3% and 1.5% in Q2, respectively. The appreciation reflected a decline in Israel’s risk premium and improved investor sentiment after Operatio...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments, forecast update – Weekly report, November 3, 2025
ISRAEL · Forecast · 04 Nov 2025

Israel enters November in a fragile but stabilizing environment. While the ceasefire with Hamas remains largely intact, negotiations toward Phase II of the Gaza arrangement have stalled, leaving uncertainty in the near term over the Gaza front and future regional arrangements. Economic data f...

Israel’s economic conditions in Q3 2025: after Iran, before the ceasefire
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 Nov 2025

As data for August and September 2025 begin to accumulate, we now have a clearer statistical picture of Israel’s economic performance in the third quarter. The key question we seek to answer is how the Israeli economy responded to the end of the military operation against Iran and whether the rec...

Israel’s labor market remains tight, may keep monetary easing on hold
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Oct 2025

Three key indicators released this week confirm that Israel’s labor market remains tight. The number of job vacancies rose slightly in September to 146.9 thousand, the highest level ever recorded, with most of the increase coming from trade and manufacturing sectors. The unemployment rate remaine...

Macroeconomic and geopolitical developments – Weekly report, October 24, 2025
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Oct 2025

The past week marked the near completion of the first phase of the Trump peace plan, including a fragile ceasefire, the return of all surviving hostages and the bodies of about 15 of the 28 killed, large-scale humanitarian aid to Gaza, and a partial Israeli withdrawal to the “yellow line.” U.S. a...

Rating agencies reaffirm Israel’s rating but stress that any improvement depends on fiscal consolidation and political stability
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Oct 2025

Moody’s reaffirms Israel’s rating and upgrades growth outlook Moody’s reaffirmed Israel’s Baa1 rating with a negative outlook on October 16, 2025, describing the Gaza ceasefire as credit-positive but emphasizing that risks remain elevated. The agency raised its growth forecasts to 2.5% for 2025 a...

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