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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The long end of the curve appears well anchored on BoI purchases
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 May 2020

Highlights of the weekly macro Wrap Up 26.5.20 The economy continues to return gradually to full activity Credit card purchases increased by 80% from April 19th to May 18th. Purchases in mid-May are still down 12% YTD. Output of electricity in the first two weeks of May is down 9.9% y/y compare t...

Weak consumer demand will keep inflation low
ISRAEL · Report · 18 May 2020

April's CPI (-0.3% m/m) was higher than expectations as rental prices surprised on the upside. Consumer confidence fell sharply in April on spiking unemployment, supportive of weak inflationary pressure. The economy appears to be opening up more rapidly than previously expected, as the number of ...

Weak consumer demand will keep inflation low
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 May 2020

April's CPI (-0.3% m/m) was higher than expectations (-0.5%). This upward surprise came from housing rental prices, which continued to increase by 2.3% y/y, similar to last month, while we had expected some price moderation. Core inflation moderated to 0.2% y/y from 0.35% in March. We expect core...

April's CPI surprises on the upside
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 May 2020

April's CPI declined by 0.3% m/m compared to market expectations (and our own) of -0.5%. Inflation y/y declined to -0.6% from zero in March. The main surprise for us came from the housing (rental) item which declined by -0.2% m/m (we had expected -0.7%).Somewhat surprisingly, rental contract rene...

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields
ISRAEL · Report · 11 May 2020 · 1 response

The economy is gradually opening up as the number of new infections remains very low. Only one quarter of the fiscal stimulus scheme was executed through April; we expect a fiscal deficit of 9% GDP, below official forecasts. The BoI intervention in the government bond market has been minimal, and...

The decline of BoI bond purchases may have contributed to higher yields
ISRAEL · In Brief · 11 May 2020

Highlights of our Weekly Macro Review to be released: Economic indicators point to a sharp contraction of activity, but the gradual opening up of the shutdown which commenced two weeks ago is expected to support a gradual recovery. The CBS Business Tendency Survey reflects sharp contraction in al...

The fiscal deficit surges in April
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 May 2020

The fiscal deficit in April reached 14.9bn ILS, compared to 4.9bn in April 19. The deficit in the LTM reached 4.8% GDP, up from 4.0% one month ago. The MoF expects fiscal revenues to decline by 60bn ILS (4% GDP) compared to the original forecast of January 20, as a result of Covid-19 crisis. In a...

The increase in domestic issuance is expected to be absorbed without much difficulty
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 May 2020

We expect bond issuance to average 9bn per month in 2H20In May, tradeable domestic bond issuance will reach 10.5bn ILS, double the pace of the previous months. We think this sharp increase is also due to expectations of a large fiscal deficit this year as well as huge redemptions in May of 11.7bn...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 May 2020

Highlights: Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labor market. * Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed. * If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out of wor...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 May 2020

Highlights of our upcoming weekly review:Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labour market.Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed.If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out...

Economic activity has declined by 31%
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Apr 2020

The BoI estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below that of pre-Covid-19. Moody's lowered Israel's rating outlook to stable from positive (at A1). The Bank of Israel appears satisfied with present market conditions and liquidity. In politics, Israel has a unity government, which is l...

Economic activity has declined by 31%
ISRAEL · In Brief · 26 Apr 2020

The Bank of Israel estimates that economic activity at present is 31% below the pre-Covid-19 level. The number of employed has contracted by 40%. This estimate of low level of activity was following a partial opening of the closure. The Bank of Israel is forecasting inflation of -0.5% in the next...

Finally, a unity government in Israel + dovish MPC protocol
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Apr 2020

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Blue & White party leader Gantz have signed an agreement to form a unity government. Under the agreement, Netanyahu and Gantz will rotate the premiership. Netanyahu will serve as prime minister for eighteen months and Gantz for eighteen months after him. The original ...

Lower rental prices will push inflation negative
ISRAEL · Report · 20 Apr 2020

In March, inflation (0.0% y/y) surprised slightly on the upside as housing rental prices increased by 2% y/y. Looking ahead, we expect inflation to reach -0.3%, with housing prices expected to decline on weaker demand and growing inventory. The BoI appears committed to maintaining low yields by p...

Declining rental prices will support deflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Apr 2020

Highlights of our weekly macro report:The Bank of Israel research dept. expected GDP growth to decline by 5.3% this year (while the IMF sees -6.3%) but increase by 8.7% in 2021. This assumes: PC will decline by 5.0%, investments by 11% and exports by 15%. Public consumption will increase by 5%. U...

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