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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Housing rental prices expected to accelerate
ISRAEL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Recent economic indicators point to fairly steady growth, and macro fundamentals remain shekel positive with accelerating exports (both services and industrial) supporting the CA surplus. In other economic news, we have revised our inflation forecast upwards for April to 0.4% m/m (from 0.3% m/m) ...

Inflation creeps higher to -0.4% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2016

Inflation in September increased to -0.4% y/y from -0.7% last month. This CPI print was in line with consensus, following a downward surprise last month. Inflation excluding energy moved lower to -0.3% y/y in September from -0.1% in August. Housing prices remains the main culprit impacting inflat...

PC growth slows but business sentiment improves
ISRAEL · In Brief · 09 Oct 2016

Several indicators are pointing to slower PC demand. This follows rapid growth of 10% SAAR in Q2. Slower growth in June-Aug is apparent in chain store sales, retail trade, consumer imports and debit card purchases. The Poalim consumer confidence index declined 3.1 points in September but remains ...

Rate Preview: Markets will react to the BOI macro forecast revisions
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Sep 2016

Main points: Recent economic indicators have been mixed but suggest steady growthThe labor market remains strong with unemployment remaining low.Employment growth remains respectable (0.2% m/m for ages 25-64).A tight labor market is expected to support wage pressure.Volatile service exports were ...

The best of all worlds: strong growth and low inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 19 Sep 2016

Recent economic indicators have surprised on the upside Q216 growth was revised to 4.0% SAAR (from 3.7%).PMI up 6.9 points in August on strong export orders.Job vacancies/labor market reached 4.1%, up from 3.3% one year ago.Strong growth in Q316 likely to be maintained. Israel's strong external p...

BOI unlikely to shift out of neutral mode despite low inflation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 15 Sep 2016

Following several months of gradually increasing inflation from -0.9% y-o-y in April to -0.6% in July, August witnessed a reversal to -0.7% y-o-y. The main reason was a moderation in housing prices to 1.9% y-o-y to 2.2% y-o-y. The CPI excluding all energy items turned negative to -0.1% y-o-y from...

CA surplus declines, offset by robust FDI
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Sep 2016

The CA surplus in Q216 slowed to 2.7bn USD following 2.9bn in Q116. This was the result of a higher trade deficit of 2.0bn compared to 1.5bn last quarter as merchandise imports ( in part due to higher energy prices) increased by 4.6% and exports only by 1.5% . The service account surplus remained...

Exports stabilizing at a low level but trade deficit up on import growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2016

In June-August, industrial exports increased 3.6% SAAR (trend data) following a contraction of 8.5% the previous three months. Imports of raw materials increased 5.3% following an increase of 5.6% the previous there months. Imports of consumer goods are down 10.9% (due to a sharp decline in new v...

2017 budget deficit target appears overly optimistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Sep 2016

2017 revenue target rather challenging The big question lies in next year's budget which is fairly expansionary on the spending side, but aims at maintaining the 2.9% GDP deficit target. Much will depend on the level of economic activity, but without the "one time" factors witnessed this year the...

Fiscal deficit steady at 2.2% GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2016

The fiscal deficit reached 2.6bn ILS in August and 5.2bn since the beginning of the year (compared to 3.4bn this time last year. The rolling 12 month deficit remained at a low level of 2.2% of GDP (similar to last month) . We note that the fiscal deficit is targeted for 2.9% this year, while the ...

BOI likely to revise growth forecast upwards
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Sep 2016

Highlights:Rate stability for September came as no surprise but BOI tone more hawkish.The monetary statement noted upward growth surprise in Q2.Labor market approaching full employment.Risk to achieving growth target no longer significant.Yet, forward guidance maintained with accommodative policy...

Rate stability despite upward growth surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 29 Aug 2016

The rate hold decision was expected but we note that the BOI was surprised by the strong growth in q2 (3.7% Saar). Generally indicators are positive and the labor market robust. Inflation surprised on the upside in July and the the CPI excluding energy and government price cuts is up 0.8% YOY. Ho...

​Q3 off to good start with strong job growth and PC demand
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Aug 2016

Initial data for July suggests strong growth in Q3. Job creation remains robust, up 0.5% m-o-m.Unemployment points to near-full employment labor market (4% for ages 25-64).PC growth remains strong in July, with chain store sales up.Service exports are accelerating rapidly (21.9% SAAR in Q2).With ...

Recent data points to a more robust Israel economy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2016

Economic data released last week suggest fairly strong growth in 1H16 GDP growth reached 2.9% in 1H16 following 2.0% in 2H15. Q216 growth reached 3.7% SAAR and 2.9% y-o-y. Private consumption accelerated to 9.5% SAAR in Q216 on strong durable demand. Industrial exports are up 8.8% in Q2, and inve...

IP accelerates, job market tightens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Industrial production in Q2 increased 5.9% (SAAR) following growth of 4.9% in Q1. The high tech sector witnessed expanded 14.7% following 4.3% respectively. The non-high tech sector witnessed contraction of 2.2% in Q2 following growth of 4.2% in Q1. The number of workers in industry increased by ...

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