GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights | Gulf Countries

* Oman may issue at least $3bn in bonds imminently. * This is coming sooner than expected, and ahead of reforms or external support, because of concerns about a renewed downturn in the yield environment. * The VAT law should be issued soon, but implementation could be delayed until 2022. * The...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar affirmed, Kuwait downgraded, Oman may issue, Libya partly restarts

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 25 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Libya reopened some oil fields and export terminals, but less than a third of its capacity. * The US asserted UN sanctions had snapped back on Iran, while the UN Sec Gen s...

KUWAIT: Moody’s downgrades two notches as politics threaten liquidity

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Sep 2020 · 1 response

The downgrade came amidst an impasse between the government and parliament about financing the large deficit, either through a debt law or by drawing on sovereign wealth. This is part of broader governance challenges that make it nearly impossible to implement fiscal reform. We see a potential sc...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain normalizes, US upgrades Qatar alliance, Libya to restart oil

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Sep 2020 · 2 responses

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Bahrain and UAE signed normalization agreements with Israel in Washington. * We do not expect any other Gulf states to follow imminently, for differing reasons. * Coronav...

The economic implications of Covid for the GCC

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Sep 2020

This extended report assesses how the Covid crisis exposed some of the economic vulnerabilities of Gulf states and how the crisis and policy responses relate to the long-term challenges the Gulf faces from the energy transition and structural weaknesses in their economies. Please follow up on the...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil drops, Covid cases rise, Bahrain issues, Trump supports MBS

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil fell to a three-month low of $39 on demand weakness and rising stocks. * Coronavirus cases are rising sharply again in Bahrain and UAE. * Bahrain issued $2bn at lower...

GULF WEEKLY: Dubai issues, Oman VAT approved, PMIs weaken, Israelis fly to UAE

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Sep 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Dubai issued $2bn in bonds and sukuk, and Bahrain started talks with banks about an issuance to take advantage of the sharp fall in yields. * The first Israel-UAE flight t...

GULF WEEKLY: Abu Dhabi 2070 bond, Bahrain lifts debt ceiling, UN opposes snapback sanctions

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * FTSE Russell launched a Saudi local bond index covering $73bn in securities. * Concerns grew about Saudi political detainees, including MBN and Saad Aljabri’s relatives. ...

GULF WEEKLY: Kuwait ends RFFG transfers, Saudi inflation spikes, US pushes for sanctions snapback

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oman saw the biggest government restructuring in a decade. * Kuwait’s parliament suspended revenue transfers to the RFFG but kicked back a vote on the debt law for two wee...

OMAN: Cabinet reshuffled and VAT debated, but revenues collapse and Fitch downgrades

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 18 Aug 2020 · 2 responses

There has been a flurry of Oman developments in the last few days, positive and negative, which are important to assess as the country prepares for a bond issuance in the relatively near future (well before its recently-closed $2bn bridge loan matures in mid-2021). Negative Fitch downgrad...

GULF WEEKLY: UAE-Israel normalization, Aramco dividend, Oman loan, Bahrain downgrade

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Aug 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: ● The UAE normalized relations with Israel, linking this to a suspension of annexation plans. ● Oil had a flat week as the IEA and OPEC both reduced their demand expectations....

GULF WEEKLY: PMIs expand, Beirut port explosion, Jabri alleges Saudi assassination plan

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Aug 2020 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * PMIs expanded in Saudi and UAE and showed a very strong rebound in Qatar. * Oil strengthened, despite the OPEC+ taper, as Iraq recommitted to compensatory cuts. * A forme...

GULF WEEKLY: Qatar/Kuwait drop GDP data, South Yemen separatists drop self-rule, PIF drops Newcastle bid

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 31 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * The near-term outlook for oil is weakening after a recent surge partly driven by dollar weakness * Saudi posted a -$29bn deficit in Q2 but there were signs of expenditure ...

SAUDI: Deficit rises to $29bn in Q2 but underlying fiscal performance looks okay

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jul 2020 · 2 responses

Aramco drew on its cash reserves to pay a large dividend, so oil revenue fell by less than exports. Spending continued to fall as ongoing consolidation exceeded stimulus measures, including cuts in social benefits and the military. Even so, the deficit tripled q/q to $29.1bn. Part of the reason ...

GULF WEEKLY: Rulers hospitalized, Qatar seeks compensation, Oman VAT law discussed

GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 24 Jul 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Kuwait’s emir has flown to the Mayo Clinic after emergency bladder surgery. * The Saudi king is recovering in Riyadh after gallbladder surgery. * MBS’s succession as King...