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GULF WEEKLY: Saudi extends "lollipop" oil cuts, KSA & UAE post strong PMIs, Qatar Airways hits record revenue
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 07 Jul 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi Arabia extended its additional 1m b/d oil cut into August, and Russia pledged an extra 500k. * Oil has risen for a second week, with Brent touching $77, still below the Saudi fiscal breakeven. * Iran has attempted t...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi expat surge continues, strong UAE and Abu Dhabi GDP, Gulf leaders call Putin
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 30 Jun 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf leaders were among the first to call Putin after the Wagner mutiny. * There is a renewed threat of an oil blockade in Libya. Guyana said it won’t join OPEC. * The Saudi expat labor force rose by 4.6% q/q and 13.1% y/...

GULF WEEKLY: Iran-GCC diplomatic blitz, Kuwait forms new cabinet, Qatar-China LNG deal, Hajj pilgrim numbers double
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 23 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The UAE and Qatar reopened their embassies as the Gulf détente continues. * Iran’s foreign minister visited UAE, Qatar, Oman and Kuwait and hosted the Saudi minister in Tehran. * Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia, ro...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi-Chinese investments, Kuwait reform roadmap, IAE highlights Oman’s hydrogen potential
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil briefly touched $71, its lowest since 2021, on Monday but has since rebounded to $76. * OPEC and IEA data showed that May voluntary production cuts were implemented. * Moody’s retained a positive outlook on the Saudi ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil market shrugs off OPEC+ and Iran rumors, Qatar has strong Q1 surplus, opposition wins another Kuwait election, PGA and LIV Gulf merge
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Jun 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The oil market shrugged off the Saudi 1m b/d July cuts and the extension of OPEC+ into 2024. * Reports of resumed US-Iran talks and a possible interim deal briefly spooked the oil market. * Saudi non-oil GDP grew by 4.6% ...

OPEC+ surprises: short-term Saudi cuts and fairer burden-sharing in 2024 and 2025
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 04 Jun 2023

Summary Cuts extended into 2024 at 40.46m b/d, -3.3% below Oct 2022 targets but 1% above Feb 2023 actual.Allocations of 9 states cut by between -6% (Russia) to -42% (Equatorial Guinea) to match real capacity.10 states—including KSA, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain and Iraq—will maintain the Oct 2022 alloca...

GULF WEEKLY: SEZs exempt from Saudisation, Dubai’s Palm Jebel Ali is revived, Sultan Haitham visits Iran
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 02 Jun 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil slipped mid-week but rose after the debt ceiling deal and ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. * Iraq announced plans for a major road and rail corridor from the Gulf to Turkey and Europe. * The Saudi census showed a count of ...

GULF WEEKLY: Saudi warns oil short sellers, S&P expects a balanced Dubai budget, record demand for Adnoc Logistics IPO
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 26 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Saudi oil minister warned short sellers as bearish bets on oil reached the highest in over a decade. * Flights resumed between Qatar and Bahrain, and their frequency will increase to at least 6 daily. * $8bn in financ...

GULF WEEKLY: KSA sells $6bn sukuk, Moody’s upgrades Oman, Zelensky addresses Arab League in Jeddah
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Arab League summit opened today in Jeddah with Assad and Zelensky in attendance. * Qatar-Bahrain flights will restart next week after a six-year suspension. * Saudi Arabia sold $6bn in sukuk, and the UAE’s Aldar and B...

GULF WEEKLY: Oman and KSA Q1 fiscal outturn, Aramco to boost dividends, Abu Dhabi’s economy grows strongly, Syria will rejoin the Arab League
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 12 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The Arab League voted unanimously to readmit Syria, despite misgivings from Qatar. * The Saudi Q1 flash GDP implied non-oil growth of about 5.5% y/y, the most since 2021. * Saudi Arabia recorded a -0.3% of GDP deficit in ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil slips further, rates hiked, PMIs show strong non-oil growth, Kuwait sets election date
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 May 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent crude is down about -$5 this week to $75 and touched a mid-week low of $71. * All Gulf states except Kuwait mirrored the Fed’s 25bp rate hike. * The IMF sharply lifted its fiscal breakeven oil price forecasts for Sa...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil dips on global jitters, Saudi leads Sudan evacuations, Bahrain records deflation
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil fell further on jitters about the US and global economy, lower than before the OPEC+ cuts. * S&P put Egypt on a Negative outlook amidst worries about GCC investment and other financing. * Gulf states, notably Bahrain ...

GULF WEEKLY: PIF gets another 4% of Aramco, Kuwait calls elections, UAE-Qatar embassies to reopen, Sudan conflict raises concerns
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 21 Apr 2023 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Gulf states called for an end to conflict in Sudan, where they have links to both sides of the military. * Saudi Arabia transferred 4% of Aramco to PIF, which will reduce central government annual fiscal revenue by 1%. * ...

GULF WEEKLY: Oil supply looks tight in H2, regional reconciliation advances, Fitch positive on Oman, Sinopec invests in Qatar LNG
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 14 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Oil rose further as OPEC and IEA monthly reports forecast a 2m b/d supply gap in H2. * Bahrain and Qatar will re-establish diplomatic relations, a boost to Bahrain’s economy. * The IMF revised down GCC fiscal forecasts on...

GULF WEEKLY: Fitch upgrades KSA, Bahrain issues budget and bonds, Iran-GCC detente continues
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Apr 2023

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Fitch upgraded KSA to A+ due to reform commitment and easing geopolitical risks. * The PMI remained strong at 58.7 in KSA in March and rose to 55.9 in the UAE and 53.8 in Qatar. * Saudi Arabia has reportedly assured the I...

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