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Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...

A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Aug 2025

This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder ...

A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part I: Domestic issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2025

This report and the next will examine where Argentina stands economically and financially nineteen months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration will be able to do for the rest of its mandate. The analysis is...

Argentina ordered to surrender its 51% stake in YPF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025

Yesterday, Judge Loretta Preska from the Southern District Court of NY ordered the Government of Argentina to surrender the 51% stake it has in YPF, the national oil company, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgement issued in 2023 and whose main beneficiary is Burford Capital. The gov...

As inflation breaks the 2% psychological mark, the government explains how it will accumulate reserves without losing control of the money supply
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025

This week ended on two positive notes. Yesterday, INDEC reported that May inflation was 1.5% m/m, down from 3.7% in March and 2.8% in April. The low print benefited from a reduction (-2.7%) in seasonal prices and underadjustment (1.3%) of regulated prices. However, although core inflation (2.2%) ...

The search for "endogenous" dollars
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2025

Argentina is a bi-monetary economy not because the peso and the dollar circulate with equal ease but because, to protect themselves against inflation, Argentineans have traditionally invested a large percentage of their wealth portfolios in US dollar instruments, including cash held in dollars th...

Understanding Argentina's current stance on exchange rate and monetary policies
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 May 2025

The economic policies enacted by Argentina’s government since December 2023 have been successful on many fronts, but there are storm clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. The most important achievement so far has been fiscal consolidation. However, while impressive and strictly necessary ...

Does the mild depreciation of the peso after the (partial) elimination of the cepo mean that the peso is no longer overvalued?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 May 2025

In a recent report (see https://globalsourcepartners.c...), I explained the analytical difference between the nominal exchange rate (NER) and the real one (RER) for those who needed a refresher tutorial on the subject. In short, the NER is the relative price between two assets (foreign and domest...

How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...

Argentina's IMF-supported new measures look good on paper, but the devil is in the details
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025

On Friday, Argentina and the IMF released the full content of the economic program that will be implemented under the auspices of the $20 billion, four-year EFF Agreement that the Fund's board has just approved. For the details of the program, see https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar... and https://www...

Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...

Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025

A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...

On original and mortal sins
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Mar 2025

Critics of the Caputo Plan of December 2023 would have preferred that the myriad exchange controls that constitute the so-called "cepo cambiario" (hereinafter, "cepo") had been eliminated at the start of the plan or shortly thereafter. According to them, the failure to do so by the government is ...

Is the peso overvalued? A technical note
ARGENTINA · Report · 18 Feb 2025

In this report, I argue that, contrary to what President Milei and members of his economic team say, the Argentine peso is overvalued. By how much—I don't know, nor do I think anyone does. I know that the peso is overvalued for three reasons. First, because of the cepo: if it didn't exist, the no...

Waiting for the Fund
ARGENTINA · Report · 06 Feb 2025

Discussions between the IMF and Argentina on the new Extended Facilities Agreement (EFF) that will replace the one that just expired seem to be on track. Negotiations accelerated in the last two months, and it is quite likely that the agreement will be reached before the end of March. Taking the ...

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