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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Oct 17 -
Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Sep 30
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Chile databank Sep 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Oct 1
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Sep 30
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Gulf Countries databank Oct 17
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Aug 28
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Panama databank Jul 17
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Peru databank Sep 29
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Philippines databank Oct 8
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Poland databank Sep 29
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Oct 3
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Turkey databank Aug 11
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Ukraine databank Aug 15
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Venezuela databank Oct 6
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: GOING INTO THE FIRST ROUND...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
U.S. support buys time, not permanent stability, for Argentina
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Oct 2025
Despite the U.S. Treasury’s recent show of support, Argentina’s markets remain uneasy. The mere announcement two weeks ago that Washington was willing to offer financial assistance did little to restore confidence. After a brief period of calm, both the exchange rate and country risk climbed agai...
Market calm returns to Argentina after President Trump and US Secretary Bessent pledge strong support
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Sep 2025
Last week, Argentina’s economy faced intense pressure as the nominal exchange rate hit the ceiling of its exchange band and country risk surged to 1,450 basis points. Yet, the government, led by President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis "Toto" Caputo, pulled off two bold moves that swiftly...
Government defeat in Buenos Aires Province: Political and economic implications
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Sep 2025
The ruling coalition suffered a 13-point loss in Buenos Aires Province, a stronghold of Peronism. The markets reacted sharply: equities fell up to 25%, bonds weakened, and country risk surpassed 1,000 basis points. Inflation stabilization has come at the cost of recessionary pressures, weak reser...
Questions I've been frequently asked since my last report
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025
Here are my answers to the main questions market participants have been asking me as the midterm election approaches. What do the polls say about President Milei's chance of winning the midterm election? Current polls position Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza (LLA) as the favorite for the Octobe...
A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part II: External issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 05 Aug 2025
This report completes the analysis begun in our July 22, 2025 report regarding Argentina’s main economic and financial issues 19 months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration can accomplish for the remainder ...
A general view of the economy ahead of the midterm elections—Part I: Domestic issues
ARGENTINA · Report · 22 Jul 2025
This report and the next will examine where Argentina stands economically and financially nineteen months into the Milei administration and three months before a midterm election that will critically influence what the administration will be able to do for the rest of its mandate. The analysis is...
Argentina ordered to surrender its 51% stake in YPF
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Jul 2025
Yesterday, Judge Loretta Preska from the Southern District Court of NY ordered the Government of Argentina to surrender the 51% stake it has in YPF, the national oil company, to partially satisfy a $16.1 billion court judgement issued in 2023 and whose main beneficiary is Burford Capital. The gov...
As inflation breaks the 2% psychological mark, the government explains how it will accumulate reserves without losing control of the money supply
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Jun 2025
This week ended on two positive notes. Yesterday, INDEC reported that May inflation was 1.5% m/m, down from 3.7% in March and 2.8% in April. The low print benefited from a reduction (-2.7%) in seasonal prices and underadjustment (1.3%) of regulated prices. However, although core inflation (2.2%) ...
The search for "endogenous" dollars
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Jun 2025
Argentina is a bi-monetary economy not because the peso and the dollar circulate with equal ease but because, to protect themselves against inflation, Argentineans have traditionally invested a large percentage of their wealth portfolios in US dollar instruments, including cash held in dollars th...
Understanding Argentina's current stance on exchange rate and monetary policies
ARGENTINA · Report · 16 May 2025
The economic policies enacted by Argentina’s government since December 2023 have been successful on many fronts, but there are storm clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. The most important achievement so far has been fiscal consolidation. However, while impressive and strictly necessary ...
Does the mild depreciation of the peso after the (partial) elimination of the cepo mean that the peso is no longer overvalued?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 May 2025
In a recent report (see https://globalsourcepartners.c...), I explained the analytical difference between the nominal exchange rate (NER) and the real one (RER) for those who needed a refresher tutorial on the subject. In short, the NER is the relative price between two assets (foreign and domest...
How much does Argentina's new economic plan differ from the previous one?
ARGENTINA · Report · 25 Apr 2025
Two weeks into Argentina’s new economic plan, which received strong support from the IMF, we have a clearer picture of what we can and cannot expect from it. Three things stand out. First, it is not the third phase of the same plan, as the government claims, but a new plan that was introduced bec...
Argentina's IMF-supported new measures look good on paper, but the devil is in the details
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025
On Friday, Argentina and the IMF released the full content of the economic program that will be implemented under the auspices of the $20 billion, four-year EFF Agreement that the Fund's board has just approved. For the details of the program, see https://www.imf.org/en/News/Ar... and https://www...
Webinar Replay and Slide Presentation - Argentina’s Economic Crossroads: Currency valuation, IMF talks and the path to stability
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Apr 2025
Is the Argentine peso overvalued and will there be another devaluation? Are Argentina’s national accounts balanced at the current ARS level? What are the timelines and conditions for IMF negotiations? How will inflation dynamics develop? What impact will credit penetration have? What is the curre...
Reality bites
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Mar 2025
A series of unfortunate events descended upon Argentina in the last four weeks that disrupted the fragile Pax Financiera the country had enjoyed since August of last year. Trumpian economics or, more accurately, the global uncertainties created by it, was the first mishap. Here, the concern is ho...