Country Insights

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Argentina 2021: a slow recovery and higher inflation
ARGENTINA - Forecast 27 Nov 2020
Our forecast for the Argentine economy in 2021 differs significantly from the official forecast in the 2021 Budget Law. We forecast a slower recovery of GDP growth and a significantly higher rate of inflation than that projected by the authorities. At the same time, we expect a slightly lower pri...

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​Supreme Court bows to the executive power
ARGENTINA - Report 04 Nov 2020
Amid the US election, which is attracting most of the media attention, Argentina’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government’s interests regarding the validity of the transfers of two judges who ruled against Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). A third judge who is still dec...

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Dangerous monetary arithmetic, version 2020
ARGENTINA - Report 26 Oct 2020
Capital markets remain concerned about Argentina’s economic and political outlook, despite the successful international debt swap and the more recent oversubscribed domestic dollar-linked debt placement. The failure of the long-term lockdown to avert the spread of the COVID virus and the conseque...

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​The government announced new dollar-linked debt
ARGENTINA - In Brief 02 Oct 2020
In a press conference, the Minister of Economy announced yesterday, accompanied by the Minister of Production Matías Kulfas, the Minister of Agriculture Luis Basterra, the head of the local IRS (AFIP) Mercedes Marcó del Pont and the Deputy Chief of Cabinet Cecilia Todesca new economic measures ai...

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A self-made perfect storm
ARGENTINA - Report 18 Sep 2020
​A climate of dialogue and cooperation among the main political forces in March allowed the harnessing of support from a large majority of the population, to implement lockdowns that helped dampen the pace of infections and deaths. This early action allowed time to reinforce the health care syst...

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Political climate deteriorates and recession worsens despite the agreement with foreign bondholders
ARGENTINA - Forecast 10 Aug 2020
The successful restructuring of the government debt has reduced the risk of a disorderly default during Alberto Fernández’s presidency. But in all other respects, the political climate and economic prospects have deteriorated since our May 18th forecast. By mid-May it seemed that the governme...

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Which is the final offer?
ARGENTINA - Report 25 Jul 2020
As the August 4 deadline for the debt swap comes closer, the question that remains is whether the government is going to stick to its latest proposal, presented on July 7, or if it will revise it once again. According to official statements, the government seemed to have decided, this time around...

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Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Jun 2020
Argentina webinar featuring Esteban Medrano - A debt restructuring during the pandemic. Esteban Medrano discusses Argentina's macro situation in the face of the pandemic, as well as scenarios for the restructuring.

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The formal default approaches
ARGENTINA - Report 20 May 2020 1 response
In our May 14 report, we pointed out that the government had passed the ball to the bondholders and was waiting for a counter-proposal to further advance in the current tense debt negotiations. Effectively, local authorities sought more precise definitions from creditors and also to sense how far...

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Recession deepens and inflation is momentarily contained, but monetary expansion raises the risk of inflationary explosion
ARGENTINA - Forecast 18 May 2020
Quarantine and social distancing measures were implemented in Argentina mid-March, as soon as the initial COVID-19 infection cases were detected in people who arrived from abroad. So far, the early reaction has contained the number of coronavirus deaths to around eight per million inhabitants, we...

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The "chicken race" continues
ARGENTINA - Report 14 May 2020
As might have been expected, in this “chicken race” between the government and bondholders to restructure Argentina’s debt, in which both are trying to obtain the best possible deal, the first official proposal did not reach the needed majorities to reach an agreement. The fact that it was a u...

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​Argentina to present tomorrow a unilateral debt restructuring proposal for its external debt
ARGENTINA - In Brief 16 Apr 2020
Today (Thursday), President Alberto Fernández, invited, once more, all the governors to a meeting. In this opportunity, Finance Minister Martín Guzman (MG) gave a report on the debt restructuring process and the main guidelines of the actual swap proposal that would be officially presented tomorr...

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​Uncharted territory
ARGENTINA - Report 14 Apr 2020
As in the rest of the world, the outbreak of the new coronavirus has obliged Argentina’s government to navigate through uncharted territory. The crisis fundamentally changed the government’s priorities, forcing a focus on how to tackle the unavoidable health and economic costs of the pandemic. Co...

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Compulsory restructuring of the debt under local law
ARGENTINA - In Brief 06 Apr 2020
This morning, the government published a Decree that postpones, until the last day of 2020, payments (interest and amortizations) on the debt denominated in US dollars contracted under Argentinean law. It is the beginning of the process of compulsory restructuring of that debt that we had anticip...

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From bad to worse
ARGENTINA - Report 19 Mar 2020
President Alberto Fernández says that now the problem is the economy, rather than the deficit -- meaning that the government will shift to prioritizing the preservation of income of workers and low-income families, and will try to contain the recession.His aim is no different from that of U.S. Pr...