Country Insights

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From bad to worse
ARGENTINA - Report 19 Mar 2020
President Alberto Fernández says that now the problem is the economy, rather than the deficit -- meaning that the government will shift to prioritizing the preservation of income of workers and low-income families, and will try to contain the recession.His aim is no different from that of U.S. Pr...

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​A flux economic environment
ARGENTINA - Report 07 Mar 2020
In this report, we are going to review some of the primary political expressions of the last weeks, such as President Alberto Fernández's (AF) statements to Congress during the opening of this year's ordinary sessions and Martin Guzman economic presentation, also made to Congress. The aim is to h...

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​Failed peso-debt placement opens the question about whether to re-profile or monetize the AF20 bond
ARGENTINA - In Brief 11 Feb 2020
As a new setback for the government's financing strategy, the Ministry of Economy reported late yesterday that the tender to reopen three peso bonds, to pay the upcoming amortization of the AF20 bond, has been declared void. This failure happened even though the three offered instruments covered ...

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​Province of Buenos Aires extends once more the deadline to accepts its debt negotiations to 10 AM EST
ARGENTINA - In Brief 04 Feb 2020
In the middle of the political commotion of the unexpected death this morning of the federal judge Claudio Bonadio, who headed key judicial trials against Christina Fernandez de Kirchner, and while the National Government makes announcements of its planned schedule to renegotiate its debt, the Pr...

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Unlimited monetary expansion with capital controls, and uncertain fiscal accounts
ARGENTINA - Report 13 Jan 2020
Since taking office four weeks ago, the Alberto Fernández government has announced many dispersed economic measures to redistribute income. But there is not yet a consistent or complete plan for stabilizing the economy, and promoting growth -- much less a plan for how to free the economy from the...

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The new government’s priorities are to raise domestic demand and real wages; lowering inflation isn’t an immediate concern
ARGENTINA - Forecast 17 Dec 2019
Since ex-president Mauricio Macri lost his party’s presidential primary in August, inflation has accelerated, recession has deepened, fears of debt default have obscured the financial scenario and the IMF program has been put on hold. GDP has contracted 2.5% in 2019, and real wages have fallen 10...

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​The cabinet of Alberto Fernández
ARGENTINA - In Brief 08 Dec 2019 1 response
In line with the electoral campaign, in which Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) kept a relatively low profile, the recently announced cabinet, that will be sworn in on Tuesday, December 10, reflects to a large extent the signature of Alberto Fernandez (AF), more than that of the elected vice-p...

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Transition: What to expect from AF?
ARGENTINA - Report 11 Nov 2019
Will Alberto Fernandez (AF) be able to lead the Peronist/Kirchnerist coalition with a certain degree of freedom, or will he struggle with requests from his political mentor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, or her radicalized followers? Ever since Argentina’s return to democracy, in the early 80s,...

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It is official, Alberto Fernández is the new president-elect
ARGENTINA - In Brief 28 Oct 2019 1 response
Past midnight, with 97.1% of the voting tables accounted for and an overall participation rate of 80.9%, it is official now. Alberto Fernández (AF) and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) are the new presidents-elect of Argentina. AF managed to obtain 48% of the votes (surpassing the 45% hurdle ...

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ARGENTINA - In Brief 27 Oct 2019
Today’s results of the general elections in Argentina, which are expected to be published between 9 pm and midnight, will put an end to the political limbo that emerged after the surprising result of the primaries in August. The electoral outlook that had been previously nourished by polls, drast...

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From Macri’s failed political strategy to Fernández’s wishful economic thinking
ARGENTINA - Report 03 Sep 2019
Since he lost the August 12th primary, President Mauricio Macri’s policies have changed drastically: he’s been forced to implement measures suggested by his victorious challenger, Alberto Fernández, who is now on track to win the Oct. 27th general election to become the country’s next president. ...

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Reintroduction of capital controls
ARGENTINA - In Brief 02 Sep 2019 2 responses
The debt rescheduling announcements of last week, as might have been expected, did little to calm markets anxiety and, on the contrary, acted as a coordination signal to spur capital flight, forcing the BCRA to continue selling reserves to keep the dollar value in check.Also, bank withdrawals of ...

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IMF-induced “voluntary” debt restructuring?
ARGENTINA - In Brief 29 Aug 2019 2 responses
Economic Minister Hernan Lacunza announced yesterday, after the market closed, that the executive is going to implement active debt management to voluntarily extend the maturity of short-termed and medium-termed public debt, allegedly without a hair cut on capital or interest.Below we summarize t...

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The paradox of losing before the elections
ARGENTINA - Report 19 Aug 2019 1 response
The unexpected electoral result of the primaries stunned the government and left the president with a paradoxical dilemma. How can Macri recognize a defeat if the actual elections have not yet taken place? And yet, how can he convincingly help in the upcoming electoral process, if the primaries s...

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​Hernán Lacunza replaces Nicolas Dujovne as Economic Minister
ARGENTINA - In Brief 17 Aug 2019
After some days of rumors that former economic minister Nicolas Dujovne wanted to resign to his post, the government announced this Saturday that Hernán Lacunza, former Economic Minister of the Province of Buenos Aires, assumes the position left behind by Dujovne. Dujovne felt responsible for the...