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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A macro review
ARGENTINA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

With yesterday's publication of the Q2 balance of payments, we quickly review the quarterly macro indicators that were published towards the end of September. For this reason, we will momentarily put politics aside and focus on economic performance, but not without failing to remember that this S...

The run-up to the presidential elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 13 Sep 2023 · 1 response

Today, the government will publish August CPI inflation data, which will be an interesting indicator of the current speed that a nominal devaluation of the official FX rate, without a convincing macroeconomic plan, translates into inflation. Expectations for monthly CPI inflation are close to 11%...

Political reset after liberal victories in the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Aug 2023

Yesterday's primary elections were once more a clear example of how difficult it is nowadays for political polls to anticipate electoral decisions. Most polls placed the Libertarian presidential candidate, Javier Milei, in a range between 20% to 15%, with only a few extremes close to the 25% and ...

What to look for in Sunday’s primary elections?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 11 Aug 2023

Contrary to previous primaries ahead of presidential elections, which, more often than not, were mere national polls with hardly any impact on who would be the main candidate, this time around, the primaries will have a more significant role in deciding Argentina’s electoral offer and with it, th...

Argentina’s political and economic landscape in the days before the primaries
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Aug 2023

After becoming the pre-candidate of the government for the presidency, Minister of the Economy Sergio Massa concentrated his efforts on avoiding entering into arrears with the IMF. He did this despite the rhetoric in favor of disengaging from the supervision of that institution by the Kirchnerist...

Once more inflation came in below expectations, yet the BCRA maintains interest rates
ARGENTINA · Report · 14 Jul 2023

Despite expecting some moderation in the inflation level, June's result was, once again, undoubtedly lower than anticipated. But what makes the June result more interesting than May's outcome is that its “more benign” results cannot be explained by mere seasonal factors, and the results were mor...

Last minute Kirchnerist backflip: UP tweeted that Massa runs as the only presidential candidate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 24 Jun 2023

In a surprising backflip, the ruling coalition “Unión por la Patria” (UP) announced yesterday night (June 23) through its official Twitter account, that Sergio Massa is going to be the only presidential candidate, accompanied by Augustín Rossi, current Chief of Cabinet, and close ally of Presiden...

Confirmed: Wado de Pedro is the Kirchnerists' presidential candidate in the primaries
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Jun 2023

Eduardo Enrique (aka Wado) de Pedro (WdP), current Minister of Interior and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner´s (CFK) political dauphin will run as a presidential candidate for the newly renamed “Unión por la Patria” (UP – formerly FdT). In August´s primaries, he will face the other main candidate o...

Improving inflation as the electoral countdown begins
ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Jun 2023

This Saturday, June 24, is the deadline to present the candidates for the primary elections. The extra-long weekend, which extends to today, should have given politicians time to ponder their propositions and options, particularly regarding whether Sergio Massa (SM) will or will not run as a pres...

The dangerous interaction between the fiscal deficit and exchange controls before and after the change of government
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Jun 2023 · 1 response

The significant monetary issuance of the past two years, the high stock of Central Bank debt (LELIQs), the tendency towards an increasing fiscal deficit despite the commitment to the IMF's EFF program and the exchange rate gap all form a slippery slope scenario in which a devaluation jump in the ...

Better than expected Q1 GDP does not (yet) override projected stagnation
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 May 2023

The publication of March's economic activity index (EMAE) allows us to calculate a close proxy of the GDP data that will be officially published on June 22. EMAE´s 1.5% y/y growth, taking the 3-month moving average, suggests a significantly better result for Q1 2023 growth than the -0.7% y/y expe...

April implicit annual inflation close to 140%, economic announcements expected
ARGENTINA · Report · 15 May 2023

Contrary to what seasonal factors would have anticipated and well above market expectations, April's monthly CPI inflation jumped higher, to 8.4% m/m. This brought the annual rate to 108.8% y/y and implicit annual inflation, i.e., annualizing April´s seasonally adjusting monthly rate, to 138% y/y...

CFK presented her economic views but avoided public requests to run for president
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2023

This Thursday, Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) participated in the inauguration of the “Escuela Justicialista - Nestor Kirchner” (i.e. the School of Peronism - NK). CFK defined it as a school of “political, more than technical education” (would that be indoctrination?). She ga...

President Alberto Fernandez declines to run again amidst devaluation pressures
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Apr 2023

Last week, the adverse inflation result, added to the BCRA's worrying reserve and debt levels and concerns about the likely dollarization process before a presidential election triggered a flight to quality away from the peso, resulting in a significant depreciation of the informal and the Blue-C...

Adverse inflation data ahead of the elections puts the government under pressure
ARGENTINA · Report · 17 Apr 2023

Last Friday’s publication of March National CPI inflation at 7.7% m/m was higher than expected, even considering the 7.1% m/m previously published by CABA CPI. And even considering March’s relatively strong seasonality, the implicit annual inflation, based on the monthly result, rose to 114% y/y....

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