GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

In earlier reports, we pointed out that this year’s economic data look a bit puzzling, mainly because of ongoing revisions to historical figures. These updates shift short-term growth patterns, as the adjusted m-o-m numbers from last year heavily influence this year’s y-o-y results. Monthly busin...

Economic growth seemingly accelerated in March, but was accompanied by statistical quirks

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026

Yesterday, Rosstat reported that the aggregate output of the five basic sectors, such as industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade, declined y-o-y by 0.7% in 1Q26. However, in March alone it was up by 2.2% and seemingly pointed to a significant improvement in the economic sit...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Apr 2026

Last Friday, the CBR cut the key rate by 50 bps to 14.5%. The decision was widely expected as inflation continued to decelerate in recent weeks, pulling inflation expectations down. Simultaneously, the regulator reiterated the forecast for GDP growth in 2026 (0.5-1.5%) and offered a narrower rang...

Industrial production trends remain unclear, domestic demand weakens

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Apr 2026

As Rosstat continues to intrigue observers, we remain puzzled about Russia’s economic trends, particularly in the industry. Earlier this year, we mentioned that, due to Rosstat’s internal regulations, the statistical agency decided to publish industrial production statistics for 2023 at fixed pri...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2026

The OFZ market remained under pressure in the past two weeks. Some acceleration on inflation (to 0.17-0.19% w-o-w at the very end of March and early April) made investors cautious regarding potential reaction from the CBR. Additionally, the regulator's top management acknowledged that they contin...

Economic trends don’t look great, while statistics still puzzles

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Apr 2026

According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimate, the Russian nominal GDP reached R213.5 trln (about $2.55 trln) and grew by 1.0%. On April 10, the statistical agency will publish GDP sectoral breakdown by production activity and by end-use, including quarterly data. So far, the 4Q25 numbers are unava...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 02 Apr 2026

Volatility on the FX market increased dramatically in the past two weeks (10-day volatility jumped from 6-8% month ago to over 20% as of now). On the back of strong oil prices, investors anticipated Minfin to start purchasing FX on the open market in April, which could cause its deficit as export...

Industrial production shrinks, economic statistics remain puzzling

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Mar 2026

Rosstat reported that in 2M26, industrial production fell by 0.8% y-o-y. However, the chart, presented by Rosstat just below this announcement, shows a clear y-o-y growth of about 4% at least. Indeed, y-o-y industrial growth numbers based on the officially published m-o-m statistics would give us...

Russian macro: Rising oil prices will help the budget but won't boost the economy

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Mar 2026

As global markets are still enjoying various kinds of teeter-totter moves—mainly driven by regular war escalation/de-escalation rumors—fundamental economic factors remain either largely intact or are evolving much more gradually. As it is still widely believed that the Russian budget gets the bul...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Mar 2026

Minfin’s decision to pause fiscal rule operations on the FX market has clearly impacted the ruble, with USD/RUB climbing from 77.2 in early March to around 84-85 recently. This might seem odd given the surge in oil prices, with Urals now above $90/bbl and Brent topping $110/bbl after more than fi...

Federal budget in 2M26: revenues lag the plan, spending is far ahead

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Mar 2026

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M26, the federal budget deficit reached nearly R3.5 trln, which was very close to the annual target of about R3.8 trln. In nominal total terms, revenues were down by 10.8% y-o-y while expenditures were up by 5.8% y-o-y. Oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues were dow...

January 2026 statistics points to negative y-o-y economic growth and looks puzzling

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Rosstat reported that in January, output of the five basic sectors — industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade — fell by a sharp 3.2% y-o-y, following y-o-y growth of 4.0% in December and 1.4% for 2025 overall. Such big swings in economic trends can signal major turning point...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry plans to revise the cut-off oil price that determines operations with the National Wealth Fund. Under the current fiscal rule, if oil prices fall below $59 per barrel, the government sells CNY or gold from the NWF to offset lost energy export revenues. In December 2025 and Ja...

Russian macro: bumpy road behind, sticky road ahead

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Rosstat has just released its initial GDP growth estimate for 2025, alongside major revisions to the 2024 figures. It now shows that GDP grew by 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously reported 4.3%, with the first estimate even lower, at 4.1%. So far, only the annual national accounts for 2025 and ...

Russia: a brief market watch

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2026

The CBR caught the market off guard. Most investors expected that the early-year inflation spike would push the regulator to stay cautious and leave rates unchanged in February. Instead, the CBR cut the rate by 50 bps to 15.5%, made dovish remarks, and expressed growing confidence in future cuts....