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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2025

The FX market remains steady despite the latest sanctions. Investors anticipate no significant changes in FX flows until November 21, when all operations with the two newly sanctioned Russian oil majors must be finalized. Some impact is expected toward the year's end, as increased discounts on Ru...

Domestic demand remains weak despite reports of robust real income growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Oct 2025

According to Rosstat, total real incomes and real disposable incomes in 9M25 increased y-o-y by 8.0% and 9.2%, respectively. While these figures are preliminary and may undergo slight revisions, the changes are unlikely to be significant. Retail sales, however, rose by only 2.1% in 9M25 and 1.8% ...

Industry posts increasingly unimpressive performance
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that industrial output grew by 0.7% y-o-y in 9M25. In 3Q25 and September alone, it increased by 0.5% and 0.3% y-o-y, respectively. However, seasonally adjusted figures show the industry contracted by 1.0% m-o-m last month. The mining sector seems to be stabilizing, though still i...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Oct 2025

Despite considerable geopolitical turbulence, the FX market remains surprisingly calm, showing only moderate ruble volatility. The money market situation, however, appears mixed. RUONIA is trading well below the key rate (16.4% vs 17%), yet banks’ net liquidity position with the CBR hovers near z...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025

The Russian market has been under strain due to rumors about the supply of long-range missiles to Ukraine. Earlier hopes for resolving the military conflict and expectations of a rapid key rate reduction were significant drivers in recent months. However, both now seem unfounded, leaving the mark...

Economic growth continues to decelerate
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Oct 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) showed lackluster performance with just 0.2% y-o-y growth in August and 0.8% in the first eight months of 2025. Many economic segments were sluggish during this period, thou...

Russian macro: budgetary policy to be thriftier
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Sep 2025

On September 29, the government released its revised 2026-2028 macroeconomic forecast and presented to the Duma a draft federal budget for the same period. While this year’s economic performance has been weak (aligning with the CBR's previous warnings), the government anticipates 1.0% GDP growth....

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

The fixed income market reacted negatively to CBR officials' comments following the decision to lower the key rate from 18% to 17% on September 12. Monetary authorities have highlighted fiscal policy risks and indicated a more cautious stance on further rate cuts. Consequently, long-term OFZ yiel...

Industry’s performance remains unimpressive in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Sep 2025

Although Rosstat reported a seasonally adjusted output increase of 0.7% m-o-m in August, this figure seems weak considering the contractions of 1.6% in June and 0.6% in July. For 8M25 and August alone, industry grew by 0.8% and 0.5% y-o-y, pointing to an overall growth of around 0.0% to 0.5% for ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Sep 2025

The ruble's performance on the FX market has been a major talking point over the past couple of weeks, with its sudden 5.7% depreciation against the dollar since early September, hovering around USD/RUB 85 in recent days. Fundamentally, this isn't surprising, as the ruble remains as strong in rea...

The federal budget deficit is expected to surpass the revised target
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2025

According to the Ministry of Finance's 8M25 budget execution statistics, total revenues increased by only 3.0% year-on-year, covering about 61.6% of the adjusted annual plan. The original plan projected oil-and-gas (O&G) revenues at R10.9 trln, but this was revised down to R8.3 trln. Due to a str...

Russian macro: With the economy persistently slowing, the CBR has to act
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Sep 2025

In our June macroeconomic forecast, we revised Russia's 2025 full year GDP growth outlook down to 2.0%, with a slightly better figure of 2.4% for next year, expecting a "muddling through" scenario. We noted that the growth model that emerged during the pandemic in 2020 and solidified amidst the 2...

The economy appears to be slowing down
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Sep 2025

Russia's recent w-o-w inflation data showed a continuously deflationary trend, with consumer prices falling by 0.08% in the week ending September 1. Combining this with prior weekly inflation data suggests that August experienced around 0.25% m-o-m deflation, potentially lowering y-o-y inflation ...

Economic performance looks increasingly unimpressive
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

According to Rosstat, the output of the five basic sectors, a monthly proxy for overall economic activity, grew y-o-y by just 0.2% in July and 0.9% in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a rapid slowdown. Industrial production increased by 0.7% in July and 0.8% in 7M25, though July marked ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Aug 2025

Demand for OFZ has declined recently as many investors are taking profits, with long-term yields falling below 14% and further drops appearing uncertain, even with a potential 200 bps rate cut by the CBR in September. Market participants are also cautious about additional supply from Minfin due t...

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