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January 2026 statistics points to negative y-o-y economic growth and looks puzzling
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

Rosstat reported that in January, output of the five basic sectors — industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade — fell by a sharp 3.2% y-o-y, following y-o-y growth of 4.0% in December and 1.4% for 2025 overall. Such big swings in economic trends can signal major turning point...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry plans to revise the cut-off oil price that determines operations with the National Wealth Fund. Under the current fiscal rule, if oil prices fall below $59 per barrel, the government sells CNY or gold from the NWF to offset lost energy export revenues. In December 2025 and Ja...

Russian macro: bumpy road behind, sticky road ahead
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Feb 2026

Rosstat has just released its initial GDP growth estimate for 2025, alongside major revisions to the 2024 figures. It now shows that GDP grew by 4.9% in 2024, up from the previously reported 4.3%, with the first estimate even lower, at 4.1%. So far, only the annual national accounts for 2025 and ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2026

The CBR caught the market off guard. Most investors expected that the early-year inflation spike would push the regulator to stay cautious and leave rates unchanged in February. Instead, the CBR cut the rate by 50 bps to 15.5%, made dovish remarks, and expressed growing confidence in future cuts....

Appreciating ruble, coupled with the growing gap between Brent and Urals oil prices, seems harmful to the economy
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2026

Rosstat, which frequently updates its statistics, recently reported that GDP growth in 2024 was 4.9%, up from the previously stated 4.3%. With this higher 2024 base, the sharp slowdown in 2025 now seems less surprising. The initial Rosstat’s estimate for 2025 GDP growth is 1.0%, though many month...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2026

The FX market has stayed steady despite various external pressures. Interestingly, investors seem to overlook the drop in oil revenues for the budget. Reports say the discount on Russian oil to Brent hit $27/bbl in early February. Considering US pressure on India, a fall in oil-related export rev...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2026

The FX market remains stable despite external turbulence. Some fluctuations were observed during the extended national holiday period earlier this month, when the USD/RUB moved to 80 level amid poor liquidity. However, when all the major players were back after holidays, the ruble appreciated aga...

The 2025 vicious cycle: unimpressive economic growth trims budget revenues, and the latter drags growth
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2026

It is now widely expected that the 2025 GDP growth figure will be about 1.0%, pointing to a dramatic deceleration of economic growth last year. At the same time, inflation unexpectedly fell to 5.59% – the lowest number in the past five years. The CBR succeeded in bringing inflation down through a...

Russian macro: The economy at the crossroads: uncertainty ahead once again
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 22 Dec 2025

This year is shaping up to deliver some unexpected macroeconomic results, with growth slowing sharply and GDP on track for around 1.0%, compared to 4.3% and 4.1% in the previous year and in 2023. Those stronger figures were largely the result of Rosstat’s substantial revisions to earlier data. Wh...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Dec 2025

The Russian FX market has seen moderate volatility over the past two weeks. The CBR’s decision to lift limits on outgoing hard currency transfers by individuals from Russia and “friendly” countries has had little effect on the exchange rate. Still, easing capital controls could help the ruble wea...

Budget revenues under pressure as the ruble remains too strong
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Dec 2025

The Ministry of Finance announced that in 11M25, total federal budget revenues hit R32.9 trln, up 0.7% y-o-y. Oil and gas revenues dropped 22.4% to just R8.0 trln, while non-O&G revenues rose 11.3% to R24.9 trln. The government had initially forecast R10.9 trln in O&G revenues for the year but no...

Economic performance looked better in October, with more challenges ahead amid appreciating ruble
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2025

Recently published statistics indicated that October saw a kind of a moderate upturn as the short-term indicator grew by 2.9% y-o-y that month. The 10M25 tally grew by 1.1% (up from 0.9% in 9M25). This kind of moderate improvement was widespread across key segments of the economy. We previously m...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2025

The key event on the fixed income market was the placement of the debut OFZs nominated in CNY. Two tranches were issued with maturity in 2029 and 2033 totaling CNY20 bln. According to Minfin, the main purpose of this exercise was the refinancing of Russia-25 Sovereign Eurobonds, which matured on ...

Russian macro: Watch the exchange rate—nothing else matters (so far)
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2025

Over a decade ago, when the oil price bounced back after the 2008 crisis and remained above $100/bbl for some time after, the Russian economy grew fast enough (4.0% in 2012, for instance). Economic growth was also fueled by rapidly expanding household credit, while an overly strong ruble caused i...

Industrial growth unexpectedly accelerates in October
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Nov 2025

Rosstat reported that in the aftermath of unimpressive performance in the previous months (0.7% y-o-y in 9M25) industrial production grew by 3.1% y-o-y in October and 3.0% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 10M25, the industry expanded by 1.0% y-o-y as a result. The numbers still don’t look i...

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