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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The economy continued to successfully adapt in August, but regular shocks may cause serious damage
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Sep 2022

Rosstat reported that in 8M22, the output of the five basic sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport) was down y-o-y by a mere 1.8% and 0.4% in August and 8M22, therefore, indicating that the economy was heading to moderate conduction in 2022 as a whole. Industrial output wa...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 23 Sep 2022

The decision to call referendums in Donbas and neighboring regions and the announcement of partial mobilization in Ukraine pushed the Russian financial market significantly lower. As a result, the yield for 10-year OFZ moved to double-digit territory, for the first time since the end of May, whil...

Russian macro: Economic performance in 2022 exceeds gloomy expectations, future trends remain uncertain
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 20 Sep 2022

On September 16, the Russian Central Bank decided to cut its key rate by 50 bps and brought it down to 7.5%. The regulator mentioned that Russia’s economic performance in 2022 looks better, so far, than had been expected earlier and announced that it will publish an updated macroeconomic forecast...

The federal budget still in surplus in 8M22 but is likely to turn into deficit already in 9M22 as expenditures to catch up with amended plan
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Sep 2022

The Ministry of Finance reported that the federal budget revenues and expenditures reached R17.60 trln and R17.46 trln accordingly implying as surplus of R0.14 trln. In August alone revenues reached R1.83 trln while expenditures were at R.2.17 trln. Hence, the federal budget deficit in August was...

Current account and trade balance widen in August, albeit more slowly
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Sep 2022

The CBR reported that the current account and the trade balance (including goods and services) widened to $183.1 bn and $213.6 bn in 8M22. In1H22 these figures were at $144.9 bn and 167.1 bn accordingly implying that in July and August combined the current account reached $38.2 bn and the goods a...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 08 Sep 2022

The announced decision of G7 group to introduce price cap for Russian oil as well as further initiative from EU to do the same in relation to Russian pipeline gas had no impact on FX market yet. The oil price that fell in the past two weeks also didn't affect the ruble so far. The Russian currenc...

Russia political/pandemic update: Russia-West split to remain unreconcilable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Sep 2022

Sad news came on August 30, 2022, as thirty years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, its first and last president, Mikhail Gorbachev, passed away aged 91. His death looked symbolic amid this year’s developments in Russia as the country left behind its thirty-year period of some kind of partn...

Russia’s deflation holds for another week and m-o-m deflation in August could be around 0.6%
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 01 Sep 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 29, consumer prices fell by 0.16% w-o-w. The MTD deflation reached 0.54%. It brought down the YTD inflation to 10.38%. In recent weeks deflation was caused primarily by seasonally falling fresh fruit and vegetable prices. Though some other food...

Banks’ lending expands in July across the board pointing to a recovery in economic activity
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 31 Aug 2022

Ассоrding to statistics recently published by the CBR, banks provided more loans to the economy in July than in any previous month since March. From March, outstanding credit to other financial and non-financial organizations contracted, while in July, it resumed growth. Total credit grew by 2.7%...

Consumer credit growth gathers pace in July pointing to a rebound in consumer demand
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 30 Aug 2022

CBR reported that in July, the Russian banks granted nearly R1.5 trln in consumer credits in gross terms which means that most likely the outstanding consumer credit grew last month more than in June. In June, outstanding consumer debt to banks grew by a mere R0.1 trln as was reported in the Surv...

Russian macro: industry shows signs of stabilization
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Aug 2022

Almost every day the media quotes all sorts of politicians and commentators who talk about sanctions against Russia, repeating incantations that these sanctions work, or will work in a more distant time. It is not specified exactly how they will work. On the other hand, there are experts who argu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 25 Aug 2022

The situation in the Russian FX market remains calm. The exchange rate fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of R/$ 59-61. Trading activity was rather moderate amid the summer holidays and more or less neutral news flow. One of the most intriguing events happened on Aug 18 as a daily turnover i...

Deflation continues while economic activity seemingly stabilizes
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 24 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported another week of deflation as in seven days ending on August 22 the consumer price index fell by 0.15% w-o-w. It brought the MTD deflation to 0.38%. Inflation YTD decelerated to 10.56%. It is likely that in August, deflation could exceed 0.5% m-o-m and bring down the y-o-y inflati...

Russian sovereign debt: The primary market may reopen in autumn
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Aug 2022

The fiscal situation in Russia deteriorated significantly in the middle of the year, and we expect the nation’s budget deficit to reach R1.2-1.5 trln for FY22. Despite the fact that the main source of funding the deficit is the National Wealth Fund, we don’t rule out that the Finance Ministry may...

Consumer prices continue to fall in August
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Aug 2022

Rosstat reported that in seven days ending on August 15, consumer prices fell by 0.13% w-o-w bringing the MTD deflation to 0.23%. Inflation YTD fell to 10.72% Prices continue to fall across a wide range of products, albeit some selected protein-containing foodstuffs became more expensive, such as...

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