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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The local election result is a warning to the ruling JLP despite what appears to be a narrow win
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 01 Mar 2024

While the final count is not quite yet finished for Jamaica’s local government, on Monday, February 26, the ruling JLP (Jamaica Labour Party) appears to have eked a very narrow victory in terms of the number of municipalities it controlled, although a number were effectively tied. Confusingly, bo...

A record of over 9 million tourists is expected to have visited in 2023 as Bahamas repays its Eurobond
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 16 Jan 2024

The Bahamas tourism-driven recovery accelerated in the second half of last year, with international flight and cruise arrivals rising well above their pre-pandemic levels. Bahamas is now expecting well over 9 million tourists to have visited during the calendar year of 2023 once December numbers ...

What are the implications of Jamaica’s first international domestic currency bond offer?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 13 Nov 2023

On November 3, 2023, the Government of Jamaica (GOJ) issued its first Jamaican dollar-linked international bond for J$46.6 billion, or roughly US $300 million. The seven year SEC registered bond had a coupon of 9.625%, and was issued at a slight discount for a yield to maturity of roughly 9.75%. ...

Politics and banking dominate Jamaica’s headlines as silly season begins early
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 08 Aug 2023

In Jamaica, the month of July before the normal August holidays was extremely busy, with the headlines dominated by news in politics. The kick off for the current political near-frenzy was actually the end of June, when an opinion poll released by the Opposition Peoples National Party (PNP) claim...

The Bahamas announces income tax plan while finances improve
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 30 May 2023

A couple of months ago, toward the end of the first quarter, the technocrats at The Bahamas Ministry of Finance appeared “jubilant” as they now all believed they had escaped the need for an IMF program. This optimism appeared to be driven by the strong tourism-led economic recovery and its impact...

A Jamaican miracle
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Feb 2023

A little over two weeks ago, on Friday, February 10, the editor of the Financial Times (FT) Alphaville blog, Robin Wigglesworth, describing Jamaica’s economic turnaround, said “This is as close to a miracle as you are ever likely to see.” His comments were based on the press release on the IMF...

Who stole Usain Bolt's money?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 27 Jan 2023

For over two weeks in Jamaica, there has been only one news story, as both the elites and the man on the street were shocked that global sprinting superstar Usain Bolt now had only US$12,000 in his retirement fund. Bolt, the closest thing Jamaica has had to a national icon since Bob Marley, advis...

Standard & Poor's issues positive annual Jamaica report as Bank of Jamaica continues to tighten local monetary policy
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 17 Oct 2022

On October 5, rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) issued its annual report on the Jamaican economy. In summary, the agency expects the country's economic recovery to continue, supported particularly by tourism. It expects Jamaica to continue to run a small fiscal surplus in the current fiscal y...

The end of the Jamaica bid (for now)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 19 Jul 2022

The recent collapse of the near 22-year-old support for the Jamaican yield curve from Jamaican buyers, or the so called "Jamaica bid", is worthy of a detailed overview on its own. The timeline really begins with the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) beginning its interest rate tightening cycle in the second ...

Bahamas Article 4 IMF review supports our view that Bahamas economic situation is better than the global markets seem to believe
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 09 May 2022

I have been reviewing The Bahamas economic situation for a number of weeks. I hope to issue a full report soon but a review of the IMF article 4 report will now take priority. I am not going to go through every aspect now, but the bottom line is that the IMF report supports my view that The Baham...

Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke auditions for world's best as William and Kate arrive in Jamaica. His stated agenda - "Reform with ambition"
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 29 Mar 2022

Jamaica’s budget debate was concluded last week by Finance Minister Dr. Nigel Clarke on Tuesday, March 22, just as Prince William and his wife Kate were arriving in Jamaica as part of their three-nation royal visit of Belize, Jamaica and The Bahamas, all of which still have the Queen as their hea...

Omicron rises (in Jamaica)
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 14 Jan 2022

Last week, Thursday evening on January 6, Jamaica’s Minister of Health Christopher Tufton held an emergency press conference to mark Jamaica’s highest ever number of new daily Covid cases, at 1120, as of January 5, combined with one of our highest ever positivity rates, at 46.8% (the average for ...

Jamaica decisively joins the emerging market interest rate raising cycle
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 18 Nov 2021 · 3 responses

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) met on November 11 and 12 and announced its decision to raise its policy interest rate on November 16, effective November 17, by 50 basis points to 2% per annum, including other measures to contain Jamaica dollar liquidity expansion...

Good news for The Bahamas. How to fund the key political promise of reducing VAT is answered very positively.
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 29 Oct 2021

In his supplementary budget presentation on Wednesday afternoon, Prime Minister Philip "Brave Davis" announced that the promised reduction in VAT from 12 to 10% will be achieved in a revenue neutral way by eliminating the zero rating under VAT of a variety of items. He further claimed that the Mi...

Further thoughts on the new Bahamas government lack of a "honeymoon". Is any change to "Thunderball" note required?
JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · In Brief · 22 Sep 2021 · 1 response

It is useful to look further at whether the recent Moody's ratings downgrade signifies any material change in The Bahamas position since my "Thunderball" pre-election note.1) Was the downgrade due to the election result? - Not very likely. The rating meeting occurred the day before the election a...

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