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Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to surprise on the upside in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 17 May 2023

The economic situation in Kazakhstan remained stable in April, and the economy continued to expand steadily as the short-term indicator (an aggregate measure of activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) increased by 5.5% y-o-y in 4M23. In 1Q23 it was u...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 May 2023

Apr 21 KTZ: The company, the Russian Railways Logistics, and the Transport and Logistics Center of Turkmenistan signed a memorandum on the establishment of a JV for the development of the North-South corridor Samruk-Energo: The shortage of electric power in Kazakhstan by 2029 will reach 3 GW Apr ...

Kazakhstan macro: The transformation of foreign trade flows will gradually reshape the economy
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 24 Apr 2023

The Kazakh economy continued to expand in 1Q23 as the short-term indicator grew 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. Most domestically oriented manufacturing segments expanded rapidly in 1Q23, while export-oriented ones struggled to grow fast. Domestic demand continued to recover steadily as retail sales and inve...

Kazakhstan's sovereign debt market: positive vibes
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 Apr 2023

In 1Q23, the Ministry of Finance fulfilled 25% of its annual plan for local bond issuance. We do not rule out that the National Bank may begin a rate-cut cycle amid decelerating inflation, which may fuel demand for long-term bonds in KZT. An essential feature of the borrowing program this year is...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 20 Apr 2023

Apr 10 KazTransOil: AD Ports Group (UAE) may contribute to an expansion of the production capacity of the Batumi Oil Terminal President: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have opportunities to increase mutual trade turnover to $1 bln (compared to about $0.5 bln in 2022) President: Mr. Tokayev discussed w...

Stable growth in 1Q23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 18 Apr 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 1Q23, the economy continued to expand at a decent pace. The short-term indicator grew in 1Q23 by 5.1% y-o-y. This indicator is a monthly measure of economic activity, which includes the six most important sectors that cover 60% of the co...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Apr 2023

Mar 24 SOCAR: The Azerbaijani company has started the transit of Kazakh oil from Tengiz via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC). The framework agreement between SOCAR and KMG assumes the transit of 1.5 mln tons of oil per year Mar 27 Government: Kazakhstan from April 1, 2023, introduces mandatory regis...

Solid budgetary performance in 2M23
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Finance reported that in 2M23, the country’s consolidated budget was in surplus equal to KZT695 bn, i.e., slightly above $1.5bn. This budget incorporates the Republican and local budgets, the National Fund, and state social funds (net of mutual transfers). Revenues of the...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 24 Mar 2023

Mar 13 S&P: Oil production in Kazakhstan in Feb amounted to 1.55 mbd, while the country quota within the OPEC+ deal, was 1.63 mbd S&P: The agency confirmed credit ratings of Samruk-Kazyna (BBB-) and its subsidiaries KEGOC (BB+), KMG (BB+), KazTransOil (BB+), and KTZ (BB), the outlook has been cha...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to remain stable in 2023
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 22 Mar 2023

Two weeks ago, the National Bank of Kazakhstan published its bi-monthly monetary policy report and enclosed its updated macroeconomic forecast for 2023 and beyond. Apart from the usual baseline scenario, the regulator considered two others, the “optimistic” and the “pessimistic” scenarios. From t...

Economy keeps expanding in February, still unevenly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 15 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 2M23, the short-term indicator that captures aggregate economic activity industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transport, and communications grew by 4.0% y-o-y. Industrial output increased by 1.6% y-o-y (by 0.5% in the mining segme...

Kazakhstan macro: inflation to remain elevated in 2023, leaving limited room for base rate cuts
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 13 Mar 2023

Kazakhstan’s National Bank recently released its updated macroeconomic forecast and it expects the country’s economy can expand within the 3.5% to 4.5% range in 2023. The regulator expects the same rates for GDP growth in 2024 and 2025, quoting it as an equilibrium growth trajectory for Kazakhsta...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 09 Mar 2023

Feb 24 KazTransOil: Kazakhstan has started transporting oil to export it to Germany Feb 25 Foreign Ministry: Kazakhstan welcomes China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis and supports a peaceful solution to this problem based on the principles of the UN Charter. Feb 27 ...

Inflation in Kazakhstan remains elevated, albeit with no signs of acceleration
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 07 Mar 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics, inflation m-o-m in February was 1.3%, i.e., much higher than in February 2022 (0.8% m-o-m). As a result, y-o-y inflation in February moved to 21.3% (from 20.7% a month ago), while the 6M moving average monthly inflation stayed at 1.4%, i.e., almost ...

Kazakhstan macro: strong inflow of tax revenues in the republican budget hints the economy is in good shape
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Feb 2023

According to the Bureau of National Statistics the short-term indicator that takes into account economic activity in six main sectors (industry, agriculture, construction, transport, trade, and communications) grew by 5.0% y-o-y in January. These sectors represent around 60% of GDP. At the same t...

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