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Kazakhstan macro: budgetary policy continues to evolve, reshaping the macro environment
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 19 Jul 2024

In the past few days, the Bureau of National Statistics, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan published their regular monthly economic and financial statistics, which pointed to a continuous deceleration of economic growth amid moderating inflation. In such an environment,...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 Jul 2024

June 27 President: A referendum on the nuclear power plant construction in Kazakhstan will be held in autumn 2024. S&P: The agency has upgraded the rating of Kazakhstan Kaspi Bank from BB to BB+, with a stable outlook. June 28 KASE: The stock exchange plans to hold talks with the Moscow Exchange ...

Kazakhstan macro: budgetary spending slows; the strong tenge is dragging on tax revenue
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 27 Jun 2024

In the past week, the KZT weakened from the awkwardly strong levels seen since 4Q23 and reached USD/KZT466 a couple of days ago, having retreated from about USD/KZT440 seen in early May. We have repeatedly mentioned that the long-lasting stability of the nominal exchange rate amid persistently hi...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 26 Jun 2024

Jun 12 Energy Ministry: Kazakhstan will fulfil its June obligations to OPEC+. It will compensate for the accumulated overproduction of oil by the end of Sep 2025. President: Mr. Tokayev supported South Korea's proposal to hold a summit in Seoul next year in the format of 'Central Asia + Korea.' T...

Economic growth decelerates in May: more evidence
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics continued to publish its May economic statistics, and the most recent revelations confirm that the country’s economic growth gradually decelerates, albeit from high 2023 numbers, so that the 2023 growth looks not too bad. Today, the Bureau announced that in 5M24,...

Kazakhstan economic growth moderates amid evolving foreign trade
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 14 Jun 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in 5M24, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy measure of the overall economic activity) grew by 3.7% y-o-y, i.e., down from 3.9%, 4.7%, 5.2% y-o-y in 4M24, 1Q24, and 2M24. In 2023, it grew by 5.1%. Even though not a complete set of monthly econ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 12 Jun 2024

May 30 Fitch: The agency has retained Bereke Bank's BB rating with a negative forecast. May 31 Ministry of Transport: EU has lifted all restrictions on flights to the EU countries from Kazakhstan. NBK: The Monetary Policy Committee of NBK has cut the base rate by 25 bps to 14.5%. Eurasian Economi...

Kazakhstan macro: no threat to the budget despite insufficient tax revenue flow
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 Jun 2024

Recent developments in Kazakhstan show that the country’s economy continues to grow at a decent pace, albeit with a slight deceleration, which is natural after last year’s overheating. Inflation decelerated in May to 0.4% m-o-m (versus 0.6% m-o-m in April), and this could have resulted (at least ...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 30 May 2024

May 16 President: Kazakhstan and China have the potential to increase annual trade turnover between the two countries by a factor of 2.5 compared to 2023, i.e., up to $100 bln. Oil transit: Oil pumped through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in Jan-Apr 2024 amounted to 9.6 mln tons, from which 19...

Same old story in April: a too strong tenge suppresses tax collection in 4Q24
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 29 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance published the 4M24 budgetary statistics and it appears that the situation looks largely the same as in 2023. An excessively strong tenge (USD/KZT 443 at the time of writing) curtails the tax revenue collection. In the case of the republican budget (the core constituency in...

Kazakhstan macro: recent balance of payments statistics point to gradual decoupling from Russia
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 21 May 2024

In recent days, the National Bank of Kazakhstan and the country’s Bureau of National Statistics published their foreign trade and balance of payments statistics for 1Q24, suggesting that the trade surplus widened while the current account deficit narrowed. Imports grew steadily until mid-2023 and...

Kazakh economy slows in April
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 May 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that the short-term indicator that measures monthly economic activity and aggregates monthly trends in the industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, trade, and IT/communications was up by 3.9% y-o-y in 4M24. As in January, 2M24, and 1Q24, it g...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 May 2024

May 2 Parliament: The Senate has ratified the protocol on amendments to the agreement (signed in 2013) between the governments of Kazakhstan and Russia on the transit of Russian oil to China via Kazakhstan. Amendments assumed the extension of the agreement for another ten years with a ten-percent...

Kazakhstan keeps utilizing budgeted transfers well ahead of schedule implying that tax revenues were poor in April
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 10 May 2024

The Ministry of Finance reported that in 4M24, the National Fund grew from $63.7 bln as of January 1, 2024, to $64.9 bln as of May 1. In reality, it doesn’t mean that the authorities continued to build up international reserves, as in KZT terms, the fund shrank over the same period from KZT29.115...

Kazakhstan macro: economic growth to moderate amid limited stimulus, murky stats
KAZAKHSTAN · Report · 06 May 2024

According to the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the short-term indicator (a monthly proxy for overall economic activity) grew by 4.7% y-o-y in 1Q24. It grew by 5.1% in 2023. The short-term indicator incorporates the segments of industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportat...