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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Mind the calm, not the gap
CHILE · Report · 26 Aug 2025

In June the IMACEC was up 3.1% y/y, but that figure overstates momentum: much of the improvement reflects base effects and one-offs. Underlying consumption trends remain closer to stagnation than expansion. Business sentiment is still stuck in pessimistic territory, consistent with the slow pace ...

Marcel resigns
CHILE · In Brief · 21 Aug 2025

Chile's Finance Minister, Mario Marcel, widely viewed as a guarantor of economic responsibility, resigned this morning. He claims to have made the move  for personal reasons. The widely held view is that he may take up a position at the IMF. Others say he may join the Jara campaign, although this...

Baseline scenario confirmed: U.S. tariffs exclude Chilean copper inputs
CHILE · In Brief · 01 Aug 2025

According to the official White House communication, the new tariff package imposes a 50% ad valorem duty on imports of certain semi-fabricated copper products (e.g., tubes, wires, rods, and sheets) and copper-intensive downstream goods (such as pipe fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical c...

Steady as she goes
CHILE · Report · 15 Jul 2025

Despite the headline boost in May’s IMACEC, the underlying momentum remains soft. The y/y figures will likely stay high into June, due to favorable base effects. IMACEC’s consumption-related sectors and retail sales point to softening consumption dynamics. This is echoed in commerce sentiment. Wi...

Chile's presidential primaries: the specter of Communism
CHILE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2025

In the introduction to the Communist Manifesto, Karl Marx announced that “a spectre is haunting Europe”. Marx had designed Communism to be a threat to the established order, and by the time he wrote his treatise, the established order was worried. Because early Communism stuck to its revolutionar...

A tale of two realms: economic silence and political noise
CHILE · Report · 27 May 2025

The Chilean economy has grown rather uneventful. Macroeconomic data points to a balanced economy with limited growth potential. National accounts for Q1 2025 confirm that growth is mostly export-led, while investment remains weak. Gross fixed capital formation growth y/y was positive in Q1, but t...

Cherries, tourists, tariffs and expectations
CHILE · Report · 07 Apr 2025

A breeze of optimism has swept across Chile. According to the national accounts, GDP grew by 2.6% in 2024. Still, we are not revising our baseline 2% GDP growth forecast for 2025 just yet. Several factors prompt caution. First, statistical distortions have been at work. Second, some temporary dri...

Chilean presidential elections: Tohá in, Bachelet out
CHILE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2025

With the end of the antipodean summer comes the start of the school year in Chile. The days get shorter, traffic gets worse, and presidential candidates begin to position themselves. While on the center-right Evelyn Matthei has been a fairly official candidate – and has been leading in the polls ...

Spring shoots in autumn?
CHILE · Report · 18 Feb 2025 · 1 response

The economy appears to be gaining momentum. Three consecutive months of positive variation in the IMACEC marks a clear shift away from a prolonged period of stagnation, and supports the 2% growth being forecast for 2025. The economy now appears poised to expand at a pace closer to its potential. ...

A pension deal? Political wrinkles and potential economic impact
CHILE · Report · 28 Jan 2025

The summer break is well underway in Chile. And by the time things gear up again in March, the presidential and congressional election campaigns will be as well. Primaries, to be held at the end of June, are now less than six months away. Recall that presidential and congressional elections will ...

What to Expect from the Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 16 Dec 2024 · 1 response

For the Monetary Policy Meeting (RPM), I remain undecided regarding the decision (50/50 between -25pb and no cut). Arguments in favor of a 25bp cut: Macroeconomic analysis indicates that the Central Bank has plenty of room to continue reducing the Monetary Policy Rate (TPM). Market expectations a...

Signs, bridging fissures
CHILE · Report · 29 Nov 2024 · 1 response

The seasonally-adjusted IMACEC saw a steep monthly contraction in September, primarily due to an unusually high concentration of holidays. This year’s atypical seasonality is particularly evident in manufacturing data. Beyond monthly volatility, the underlying trends point to stagnation. While 12...

Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...

Volatility and divergence
CHILE · Report · 23 Oct 2024

Economic activity has been characterized by significant volatility, and uneven performance across sectors. Data related to consumption, including commerce, services and taxes on products, remain largely stagnant. Investment-related data also reveal limited dynamism. But manufacturing experienced ...

Change of mind
CHILE · Report · 13 Sep 2024

The significant expansion of the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) in July should be taken with a grain of salt. Recent data show increased volatility. These wide swings were primarily driven by successive one-off events. Everything points to a likely reversion in the IMACEC in coming m...

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