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The last peace-of-mind week ever?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 04 Mar 2026

So far this century, leftist governments in Latin America have typically lasted between 10 and 18 years, with Chávez – Maduro - Rodriguez outlasting this average, reaching 26 years (Table 1). Hence, Gustavo Petro needs to demonstrate that he and his heir can emulate his peers and reach at least 8...

How come the fiscal balance improved in 2025?
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2026

The Finance Ministry published fiscal data for Q4-2025 and for 2025 as a whole. The results could not be more discouraging. Even though the deficit went down from 6.7% of GDP in 2024 to 6.4% in 2025, a cursory look at the details behind this result (shown in Table 1) left us with nothing positive...

Handing out the pre-election pork
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Colombia began experimenting with wealth taxes at the beginning of this century. Wealth taxes have been criticized because they represent double income taxation: once when it’s produced, and again as assets. This may discourage savings and capital accumulation. But successive governments and mini...

Implications of a suspended minimum wage hike
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 13 Feb 2026

The State Council, one of Colombia’s high courts, issued a ruling on February 13th, suspending the effects of Decree 1469, issued by the Petro administration on December 29th of last year. In other words, the State Council has decided to suspend the 23% increase in the minimum wage. This ruling c...

Swallowing frogs, kissing the ring, and doing the responsible thing
COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Feb 2026 · 1 response

Why did Donald Trump want to meet with Gustavo Petro in Washington? Probably because it was cheaper to scold Petro face to face; to ask for real commitment and actions that comply with the U.S. agenda; and to bring him to the White House to kiss the ring, instead of intimidating him with the U.S....

January 2026 Colombia slide deck: Moderate optimism but plenty of noise until the run-off election in June
COLOMBIA · Presentation · 23 Jan 2026

Read the slide presentation prepared by Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andres Escobar and Mauricio Santamaría with charts on the most recent poll results for the coming elections, the current state of the fiscal accounts, and an overview of Colombia's economy and prospects.

Where to invest your pension savings
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2026

The government published a draft decree that would limit mandatory pension fund (AFPs) investments abroad to 30% of their total portfolio across all risk profiles. Within three years, pension funds would have to reduce their maximum allocation to foreign assets to 35%, and within five years to th...

Extravagant minimum wage increase and its consequences
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 30 Dec 2025 · 5 responses

President Petro just announced a 23% increase in the minimum wage (MW) for 2026, setting it at COP $2 million including the compulsory transportation allowance. When all the non-wage costs are taken into account, the gross cost of an employee earning one minimum wage will be around COP 2.8 millio...

Brazilianization of Colombia
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025

Should the Central Bank start a new hiking phase for the intervention interest rate? Apparently, this is the prevailing view among many observers of monetary policy. Felipe Campos from Aliaza puts it succinctly: “The pressure is shifting to the Central Bank of Colombia, which is facing this situa...

Surprise surprise
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025 · 1 response

Acrimony will probably surface in the next meeting of market creators with Minfin’s Public Credit director. On Friday, December 19th, there was a secretive $6 billion financing operation with an unknown funding source at an interest rate of 13.5%. This caught both the market makers and the market...

An unwarranted emergency
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 21 Dec 2025

During the press conference convened to announce the Central Bank’s Board decision to keep its policy rate unchanged at 9.25%, something quite unusual happened. Once governor Villar read the press statement agreed upon by the board members, finance minister Avila intervened not to comment the gov...

Don’t be fooled
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Dec 2025

The Petro administration will surely trumpet new CARF announcements outlining better-than-expected 2025 fiscal results. The 2025 national central government deficit will be below the 7.6% we and a substantial group of analysts and investors were expecting, and closer to 6.2%. Net NCG debt also im...

Webinar replay - Latin America in 2026: Inflation, policy and politics in a shifting global landscape
COLOMBIA · Report · 12 Dec 2025

Going into 2026, what is the economic outlook for the key Latin American economies of Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico? How will the persistence of above-target inflation in the region be addressed? What is ahead for monetary policy and central banks? Is LatAm positioned well for a reve...

A surprising Invamer poll rocks the political landscape
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response

After a long period without official polls due to a legal ban, Invamer published on Nov. 30th a surprising poll on the presidential election. The main result is a substantial jump in leftist Iván Cepeda’s vote intention, surpassing right-wing Abelardo de la Espriella, and centrist Sergio Fajardo,...

An unexpected turn of fiscal events
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Dec 2025 · 1 response

Deterioration in the primary balance is expected to be fully compensated for by lower interest payments, so the new expected NCG deficit number for 2025 should be the same 6.7% of GDP as posted in 2024. In terms of debt, things might be somewhat improving on that end too: due to the effects of de...

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