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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Power supply dangerously close to critical condition
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2024 · 1 response

The Electricity and Gas Regulatory Commission (CREG) issues on a regular basis a reference daily path for the National Interconnected System reservoirs’ aggregate level. This path is considered to be the minimum required to guarantee that power supply meets demand; should the aggregate level fall...

Healthcare reform sunk in Congress, but reform drive continues at full steam
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 03 Apr 2024

In spite of resorting to all the tricks in the known universe, the government could not stop the sinking of the healthcare reform in Congress, after 8 Senators in the 7th Committee presented a motion to sink it two weeks ago (Ponencia de Arichivo). After many days and weeks in which the governmen...

Parade or charade?
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Mar 2024 · 1 response

There were many reactions to President Gustavo Petro’s idea of convening a Constitutional Assembly. Possibly the most synthesizing one came from constitutional lawyer Juan Manuel Charry, who wrote that Petro doesn’t know whether his role is to subvert the institutional order or to govern (“no sab...

Finally, the C-word
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 18 Mar 2024 · 1 response

On Friday, March 15, in a speech aimed to invigorate his supporters, out of the blue, President Petro came out with a proposal everyone feared since he ran for president; namely, aiming to change the constitution via a Constitutional Assembly (CA). He finally recurred to the C-word. In his own wo...

Are these the dog days of fiscal consolidation?
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Feb 2024 · 1 response

President Gustavo Petro uses the expression “golpe blando” to mean a style of soft coup-d’état that doesn’t involve force, massive street demonstrations or the actual ouster of a president. Rather, under this concept, the seizure of power can occur subtly, via legal initiatives, investigations fo...

“They won’t let us govern”
COLOMBIA · Report · 31 Jan 2024 · 1 response

In reaction to the Procuraduría General’s three-month suspension of Foreign Minister Alvaro Leyva, President Gustavo Petro paranoically pointed to a conspiracy against his government. But events may suggest other conclusions: a mishandled bidding process that led to a probably successful suit by ...

Webinar replay - Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 19 Jan 2024 · 2 responses

Watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalSource Partners' Colombia Analysts Juan Carlos Echeverry, Andres Escobar and Mauricio Santa Maria as they discuss Colombia's macro and political outlook in 2024.

Slide Presentation: Colombia in 2024 - Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Jan 2024

Gain insight into Colombia's 2024 macro and political outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Colombia in 2024: Fiscal, Inflation, Reforms and Politics".

Health care heads for Never Never Land
COLOMBIA · Report · 15 Dec 2023 · 1 response

The government’s healthcare reform proposal has survived its first crucial test in Congress: it was finally approved by the House on December 5th. Now it will be reviewed by the Senate, where harder discussions will take place in March. Though this is a positive for the government, a formal step ...

Webinar replay: Latin America in 2024 - Another big year
COLOMBIA · Report · 08 Dec 2023

Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico look on track to finish the year among the top three best performing FX and rates markets in EM in 2023. Can this be sustained in 2024, when political developments are set to be crucial in driving sentiment and asset prices across the region? Visit our calendar page ...

Giving it all away, while infuriating everybody
COLOMBIA · Report · 30 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

President Gustavo Petro’s talk about “an economic storm” tries to obscure the true problem Colombia will face for the rest of his administration: an upcoming fiscal storm, caused by factors other than those he cites. Blaming the Fiscal Rule, the Constitutional Court ruling, or the IMF loan repaym...

Fiscal Rule under fire
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2023 · 2 responses

Early on after taking office, President Petro said, “At some point, Colombia will have to choose between Peace and the Fiscal Rule”. Finance Minister Ocampo reacted quickly back then and calmed the waters, saying fiscal policy would be carried out unwaveringly within the limits of the Fiscal Rule...

No one falls from grace halfway
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Nov 2023

In Latin American national elections today, the opposition has an 80% chance of winning, according to a recent statistical analysis. After the 2015 commodities crisis, and especially after the COVID pandemic, opposition parties won almost four of every five elections in the region. We are seeing ...

Petro’s make-or-break second year
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Sep 2023 · 1 response

What should we expect for Gustavo Petro’s second year? We think this phase will depend upon 1) what happens in the October 29th mayoral and gubernatorial races; 2) whether the economy definitively succumbs to recession, as the Central Bank projects, or rebounds, as private analysts expect; and 3)...

Congress approves 2024 budget number, ignoring CARF warning
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 14 Sep 2023 · 1 response

On September 13, the economic committees of Congress approved the size of the 2024 budget at COP 502.6 trillion (29.6% of GDP), leaving the amount submitted by the Finance Ministry back in July unchanged. From now until mid October, the plenaries of the House and the Senate will continue to discu...

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