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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An unexpected second runner-up
ECUADOR · Report · 28 Aug 2023

While the presidential outcome that placed Daniel Noboa in second place in the first-round presidential election came as a surprise to virtually every Ecuadorian, the results obtained in the Assembly and its distribution were in line with our expectations. Four blocs will represent close to ...

A second electoral round with a huge surprise
ECUADOR · In Brief · 20 Aug 2023

With around 75% of votes counted at national level, it is certain that Ecuadorians will go to vote in a second round in which Luisa Gonzalez and Daniel Noboa will be seeking the presidency of the country. While the 33% vote for Gonzalez were somewhat expected and represents the hard vote for the ...

Fernando Villavicencio has been murdered
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Aug 2023

Fernando Villavicencio, was a presidential candidate until today at 6 pm.  He was murdered with three bullets to his head perpetrated  by a hit person during a political meeting that was being held at an academic institution. He was the former head of the fiscalization committee in the Assembly a...

Expected disappointment
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Jul 2023

An economic downtrend this year has been evidenced in falling inflation and non-oil imports in the first five months. Recently published GDP data for Q1 confirmed this trend. Although y/y growth was positive at 0.7%, it is the lowest since Q2 2021, while the quarterly performance was the worst s...

Who wants to be president?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jun 2023

President Lasso has been governing under the mechanism of “cross death” for a little over a month and has sent two economic decrees for the approval of the Constitutional Court. The first one reforms income tax collections to benefit people earning below $3,000 per month, which will imply $200 mi...

Worst Fears Confirmed
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Jun 2023

Official candidates will be announced by the Electoral Council next August 6th, and the electoral race will start on August 8th, including a presidential debate that will take place on August 13th. Of the eight announced presidential and vice-presidential candidates, only Daniel Noboa and Veronic...

A complicated political panorama for the elections
ECUADOR · In Brief · 31 May 2023

The schedule for the elections of next August is putting pressure on all political organizations to define their alliances and candidates, who should be registered at the Electoral Council by next June 7th after being defined through an internal election process. So far, the candidates who have c...

Russian roulette once again
ECUADOR · Report · 22 May 2023 · 2 responses

For many, the “cross-death” option became necessary after months of political battle between the executive and legislative branches and allows Ecuadorians to choose their political destiny once again. But somehow, for those who a few weeks ago were proposing it in Congress, it is an illegal dicta...

Cross Death: Long Awaited
ECUADOR · In Brief · 17 May 2023

Yesterday, Guillermo Lasso attended the Assembly session to present his defense on the accusations of corruption that were the basis for his impeachment. He did not announce the cross-death process during his speech, but did so last night at 7 pm, and requested the Electoral Council to call new e...

Opposition wins Presidency of the Assembly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 14 May 2023

With 96 votes—more than even UNES and the Social Christians expected—Virgilio Saquicela his loyal voice today won the presidency of the Assembly for two more years. This is four more votes than those needed to impeach President Lasso.  Seventeen legislators from Packakutik and Izquierda Democrati...

Hour Zero Approaches
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 May 2023

The report recommending Guillermo Lasso should not be impeached was approved by four members of the review committee and rejected by five. According to the legal procedure, the plenary approved to start the impeachment process with 88 votes. The impeachment process could last two weeks or less, a...

Insecurity and violence overshadows Lasso’s impeachment in the news
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Apr 2023

The unceasing news of acts of violence and even massacres, both inside jails and outside them, have displaced news of Lasso’s impeachment, which should be the most important development for Ecuadorians at this time. However, there is evidence that Ecuadorians, who have been undergoing threats fro...

Lasso's Impeachment was Approved by the Constitutional Court
ECUADOR · In Brief · 30 Mar 2023 · 1 response

Late last night, the Constitutional Court issued a partial approval for Guillermo Lasso's impeachment accepting jugdgement for bribery and rejecting the charge of concussion.  This ruling does not make the President's situation any easier.  The ball is again in the Assembly's field in this is wha...

Lasso's Situation Gets More Complicated
ECUADOR · In Brief · 27 Mar 2023

As expected, the Assembly submitted to the Constitutional Court the petition to initiate an impeachment of President Lasso.  This petition is based on the report presented by an ad-hoc legislative commission dominated by the opposition, in which Lasso was accused virtually of everything the Const...

Constitutional illiterates
ECUADOR · Report · 13 Mar 2023

An ad hoc commission formed and led mainly by legislators from the UNES and the Social Christian Party investigated a case of corruption in the electricity sector. Although the case has roots in the government of Rafael Correa, this commission decided to focus on the current presidential period, ...

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