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Country Insights

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Dark clouds coming from the Assembly
ECUADOR - Report 13 Sep 2021 1 response
The political sky looks mostly blue after the first 100 days of President Guillermo Lasso’s government. His popularity has hit record highs at 75%, and the government celebrated its 100th day with over nine million Ecuadorians vaccinated, placing Ecuador as Number One in the world in vaccines app...

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Is high popularity a buffer against social unrest?
ECUADOR - Report 19 Aug 2021
Approximately 80% of Ecuadorians approve of President Lasso’s government in the first 90 days of his administration, and his popularity increased slightly between June and August 6, from 71.4% to 73.5%, according to CEDATOS. Also, his credibility is up from 61.7% to 63.2% in this period. But whil...

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The correct path to recovery
ECUADOR - Forecast 19 Jul 2021 1 response
The first 150 days of President Lasso’s administration have been characterized by economic openness with sensible protection of Ecuadorian producers; transparency, efficiency, and investment attraction for the oil sector; recovery and improvement of domestic productivity; hard work to continue wi...

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A clearer spot in the region
ECUADOR - Report 14 Jun 2021
After two weeks in office, Guillermo Lasso registered the highest rate of approval since 1979. At 71.2% he was above Rafael Correa, who had 68% in his best days. In addition, two legislators from the Social Christian Party joined the official forces, which currently represent the second largest g...

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Legislative Commissions Finally Conformed
ECUADOR - In Brief 20 May 2021
After two days of lack of consensus, the new majority formed by Creo-Independents, Pachakutik and Izquierda Democratica finally achieved the exact 70 necessary votes to conform the 15 specialized legislative commissions. However, presidents of these commissions that have nine members, were not ap...

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Cry, Correa, cry
ECUADOR - Report 18 May 2021
“Llori Correa Llori” was the message that flooded social media after Guadalupe Llori – whose last name resembles “llora” or "cry" – was elected president of the National Assembly. Llori, a member of the Pachakutik party, was persecuted and incarcerated by Correa during his presidency. Thus, she r...

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Claim of Unconstitutionality of New Education Bill
ECUADOR - In Brief 12 May 2021
The Constitutional Court received yesterday a claim of unconstitutionality of the new education bill. The claim brilliantly explains the legal violations this bill exhibits and also provides a complete and fair explanation of its negative fiscal and economic implications. This claim was submitted...

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New Positive Steps Forward
ECUADOR - In Brief 26 Apr 2021 1 response
The bill in favor of dollarization was finally approved in first and second debates in the Assembly. Legislators from CREO, Social Christian Party, Alianza Pais and other from independent political blocks were in favor, and --as expected --correistas voted against. With this achievement, we expec...

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A burst of fresh air
ECUADOR - Forecast 20 Apr 2021 1 response
The victory of Guillermo Lasso in the second electoral round for president brought a burst of fresh air not only for the 52% of the population who voted for him, but also for international markets, which reacted positively to the news. As a result, country risk fell a historical 345 points or 30%...

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Encouraging second round results
ECUADOR - In Brief 11 Apr 2021
When 93.46% of votes have been counted --from which just 4% seem to have problems, Guillermo Lasso leads the election with 52.72% of votes while Andres Arauz has 47.28%. Lasso wins in all Andean and Amazon Provinces (except Sucumbios), while Arauz dominates in the coastal region (except Galapagos...

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Follow up to Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR - In Brief 31 Mar 2021
In the referenced brief, I included two charts that apparently lost their format. I am including the charts here with my apologies.

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Better Perspectives for Guillermo Lasso
ECUADOR - In Brief 31 Mar 2021 1 response
A summary of different polls carried out during the past week and weekend shows that political trends for Andres Arauz and Guillermo Lasso changed after the debate that took place on March 21st.Around 63% of citizens from Quito and Guayaquil watched the entire debate from which 34% thinks Lasso w...

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A successful first step for the bill to defend dollarization
ECUADOR - In Brief 29 Mar 2021 1 response
After three failed attempts, the Administrative Committee of the National Assembly accepted the bill and passed it to the Economic Commission, from where, if approved in this second stage, it will pass to the plenary session.The new version of the law replaces one Board of Directors with two Boar...

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Is the Central Bank strong enough for Arauz?
ECUADOR - Report 16 Mar 2021
The legal actions conducted by Yaku Perez against the electoral results and the National Electoral Council already have a ruling from the Electoral Court, but are subject to appeal from Perez. Thus, the ruling has not been executed yet. In the unlikely event that Perez were to win the appeal, it ...

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A Second Denial to Debate the Bill in Favor of Dollarization
ECUADOR - In Brief 02 Mar 2021
By the end of last year considering general comments from legislators on the subject bill, we had hopes for its approval. However, so far, the Administrative Council from the Assembly has denied twice the possibility to debate the bill in the plenary session. Albeit Ministry of Finance Mauricio P...