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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Luis Guillermo Solis Elected President of Costa Rica
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Luis Guillermo Solis of the opposition Citizens Action Party (PAC) won a landslide victory over Johnny Araya of the official National Liberation Party in Sunday´s runoff election. Solis obtained nearly 78% of the valid vote, whereas Araya, who virtually withdrew from the race a month ago, receive...

The Weak Performance Of The Trade Balance
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

There are still no signs of recovery of the trade balance, even though the real exchange rate is currently 14% weaker than it was a year ago. The first quarter closed with a deficit of US$ 6 billion, which is the biggest quarterly deficit in the history of the series, dating to 1959. In the 12 mo...

Monetary Policy in an Election Year
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The administration is faced with the unsavory prospect of an election year with weak economic growth combined with high inflation, with virtually no ammunition (fiscal or monetary) to improve matters in the short run. In 2011 and 2012 it pushed the interest rate substantially be...

The Smell of the Rose
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2014

Executive Summary“Sometimes victory is not about how well you have performed, but how poorly your rival did”—Cosmic StrategistFive days after the local elections, Turkey’s electoral supervisor, the High Election Council (HEC) is yet to announce the official results. We have two different vote tal...

Russia Enlargement
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2014

Russia has made a dramatic foreign policy turn, disregarding all previously valued compromises with the West, by including the Crimean peninsula in the Russian Federation despite the objections of the Ukrainian leadership, the EU and the US. This will also impact Russia’s relations with Asia as i...

Lower Inflation
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Apr 2014

Philippine headline inflation slid further to 3.9% in March, bucking market expectations of a slight pickup to 4.2%. This serves to anchor inflation expectations further and gives local monetary authorities more room to manage its exit from loose policy settings. Given relatively tame inflation n...

Budget revenues surged 24.1% y/y in March on VAT reimbursement delay
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Apr 2014

State collections in March suddenly surged up 24.1% y/y, the Treasury reported on April 3rd. In general, for the first quarter central budget revenues were reported 5.8% more than a year ago. At the same time the Treasury registered 35% decline in VAT reimbursement for the first three months. Tho...

Inflation In, Easing Out
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2014

March CPI inflation came in at a higher than expected 1.1%, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.4% from about 8% a month earlier, as PPI inflation also remained rather elevated (Table 1; Graph 1). This time, food prices are not to blame, with the negative surprise coming from core i...

Negative on Balance
MEXICO · Report · 02 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryMarch economic data was mostly negative. Even as the government accelerated spending programs, and offered to expand its mortgage lending programs to help revive a deeply depressed housing industry, there was further evidence that the economy, especially in the domestic sectors, ...

Industrial Production: Another Weak Month
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Apr 2014

Industrial output in February grew 0.4%, after climbing 3.8% in January, resulting in growth over the previous 12 months of 5% (Graph 1). Because the Carnival holiday fell in February in 2013 and in March this year, February 2014 had two more working days than the year before, so the base for com...

Girding for War
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In the face of foreign intervention, Ukraine has united. Over the past few months Ukrainian society has changed dramatically: Ukrainians have realized their own strength and potential, and are marshalling it to confront a clear external enemy. And Ukrainian authorities command e...

Quarterly Investment Outlook
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Apr 2014

Executive Summary In this new publication, we provide a macroeconomic outlook and highlight projects the government plans to develop over the coming years. We track planned government expenditure as well as progress in the execution of these plans. In many cases, the government is seeking partner...

Political Insights: Week of March 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2014

This week, the Petrobras CPI (Parliamentary Investigative Committee) will be the main focus in the Legislative. In the Senate, the opposition is pressuring Renan Calheiros to read the request for the creation of the CPI. The opposition is also trying to create a Joint Committee, made up of congre...

Three Cheers for Jokowi
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2014

Executive Summary Optimism breeds optimism. That’s an apt analysis of events in Indonesia so far this year. Good news in January generated further optimism, which ultimately strengthened the currency. At this writing, the rupiah has strengthened to about Rp. 11,400, from Rp. 12,300 earlier in ...

On Growth and Trade Data
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2014

GDP: Headline solid, momentum slowing, quality low… GDP growth in Q4 was a somewhat stronger than expected 4.4%, y/y, though data pointed to a relative slowdown in q/q terms, to 0.5% (SAAR: 2%) from 0.8% a quarter earlier, and an even stronger near-2% pace during the first half of the year (Table...

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