GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Employment remains in a clear slowdown that began last year and aligned with the weakening of the economy as a whole. The employed population decreased -0.2% yoy in the first quarter and then increased 0.2% in April, bringing the cumulative slippage for the first four months of the year to an ann...

May inflation data due tomorrow, and some fiscal data reported

HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025

For headline CPI-inflation, analysts in Portfolio.hu's monthly poll expect 4.2% yoy, unchanged from April, as regards the median forecast recorded by the survey. For end-2025, the headline rate is expected to decrease to 3.9% yoy. We fully agree with this forecast for May, and also with the expec...

Tourism to Israel drops sharply in May amid missile threats and flight suspensions

ISRAEL · In Brief · 10 Jun 2025

Tourism to Israel declined sharply in May, as the number of incoming visitors fell by 25.4% compared to April (seasonally adjusted), reaching only 95,000 arrivals. This figure is 67.4% lower than in May 2023, underscoring the ongoing impact of the war. The decline follows a gradual recovery earli...

Turkish Politics: I know what you will have done this summer

TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025

Executive Summary: Fork in the road With the fall of Assad regime in Syria, Ocalan’s call for peace and the arrest of Imamoglu and several other CHP mayors, Turkey has truly reach a historic fork in the road. One path leads to a truce among rival parties and their respective constituencies, enshr...

Terror, uncertainty, paranoia

COLOMBIA · In Brief · 09 Jun 2025 · 2 responses

It is challenging to interpret the events unfolding in Colombia. There are many antecedents from a distant past that Colombians thought were behind us. Back in the early nineties, many presidential candidates were assassinated in Colombia by the dark forces of narco-trafficking and paramilitarism...

Politics: Judicial elections—a setback for democracy and success for the 4T’s authoritarian impulses

MEXICO · Report · 09 Jun 2025

Mexico’s first ever judicial elections were held on June 1. While they were significant for a variety of reasons, there were no big surprises. The elections were the concretization of Morena, AMLO, and Claudia Sheinbaum’s judicial reform, justified as a way of correcting the “country’s universall...

The nationalization of João Campos and other weekly topics

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

There is anticipation over the government’s submission to Congress of alternative measures to the IOF increase. The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continues its judgment on the liability of big tech platforms for third-party content posted on social media. The Court is also hearing depositions from ...

Can the bank of Jamaica declare Independence Day?

JAMAICA / BAHAMAS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

On Wednesday, May 21, the Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) made a surprise one-quarter point cut in the policy interest rate, namely the rate offered to deposit-taking institutions (DTI’s) on overnight placements, from 6 percent to 5.75. Justifying the cut, BOJ Governor Richard Byles noted that inflation co...

Some like it hot

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

The labor market remains tight, as evidenced by the new drop in the unemployment rate in April, after three quarters of stability. Our estimates suggest that labor market-driven pressures are likely to persist for quite some time. Even considering the economic slowdown projected by the Centra...

Russian macro: abrupt economic deceleration prompts CBR’s decisive action

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

In mid-May, Rosstat published its preliminary estimate of 1Q25 GDP growth of 1.4% y-o-y. In the aftermath of last year’s 4.3%, growth the 1Q25 number was not only unimpressive but also largely unexpected as public spending once again massively increased at the very end of December 2024, implying ...

Haddad announced a series of measures to offset the IOF increase, the STF will hear from defendants in the coup d’état case, and the STF will resume deliberations on the civil liability of internet platforms on Wednesday

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2025

After a meeting with the Presidents of the Lower House, Hugo Motta, and the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad (PT) announced a series of measures to offset the increase in the IOF tax. The package was announced late Sunday night, June 8. This week, the Supreme Federal Cour...

Fitch affirmed their BBB/Stable sovereign debt rating on Friday

HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Jun 2025

Just one week after the latest review by a Top-3 rating agency, Fitch Ratings affirmed their BBB/Stable mark on Hungary on June 6. The report was quite negative in the sense that it identified three key areas where the agency saw deterioration since their previous review: growth outlook, short-te...

Economic growth looks better in April, albeit marginally, prompting more action from the CBR

RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2025

Rosstat reported that the output of the five basic sectors (flash estimate of economic activity in industry, agriculture, construction, transportation, and trade) grew y-o-y by 2.0% in April and 1.6% in 4M25. Earlier, we quoted Rosstat while mentioning some improvements in the industry last month...

The STF continues adjudication of important cases, Haddad will meet with party leaders over the weekend to discuss the IOF tax, and the STF will hear from defendants in the case regarding the attempted coup

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2025

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) continued yesterday the joint trial of two appeals concerning the civil liability of internet platforms for third-party content and the possibility of removing offensive material at the request of the affected party, without the need for a court order. Today, the j...

Webinar Replay - Latin America: Fiscal Pressures and Political Shifts

COLOMBIA · Report · 06 Jun 2025

How are the key Latin American countries of Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Colombia navigating their economic challenges amidst political changes? How will Mexico's growth outlook fare in the face of Trump’s trade policy uncertainties and the trend of economic slowdowns during the first year of...