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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

EL SALVADOR: Stiff Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEl Salvador’s next president won’t have an easy time of it. His major challenge, after taking office next June, will be to restoke growth, dragging along at about 2% since 2009, when real GDP declined by 3.1%. Our 2013-14 forecast points to more of the same. A key element will be...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 29-Oct 5
TURKEY · Report · 29 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryMonday is a landmark day in Turkish politics, when PM Erdogan unveils the Reform Package. Contents will not satisfy either the Kurdish or the Alevite leadership, but the masses may be more sympathetic. A strange brawl during a soccer derby appears related to Gezi Parki, proving o...

2014 Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Dilma Recovers Popularity and Improves her Position Ahead of the Upcoming Succession Race The most recent CNI/Ibope on evaluations of the Dilma Rousseff administration revealed that her approval (good/very good) increased six percentage points (from 31% to 37%) from July to September.The “regular...

Fiscal Expansion Constraining Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary The objective of this work is to discuss the empirical evidence on the interference of fiscal policy in monetary policy. We compare various fiscal policy measures and find that the one that performs the best by far (including in comparison with the structural primary surplus, pr...

Q3 Woes Continue in Spite of Q2 Surprises
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Surprisingly strong Q2 GDP results were driven by fast-expanding agriculture, construction and social services, and general economic activity grew by a healthy 4.2%. The big shock was in manufacturing, which expanded by 1.2%, though leading indicators had suggested a negative re...

Koc Tender Officially Cancelled
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2013

In the war between AKP and its alleged secularist conspiratorial nemesis Koc Group, the first blood was officially drawn today. In a Defense Procurement Committee meeting chaired by PM Erdogan, the US$1.5 billion MilGem tender (for the construction of four Navy vessels) have been canceled on acco...

Critical Choices
UKRAINE · Forecast · 25 Sep 2013

Executive Summary November will be a critical month for Ukraine. The results of the Eastern Partnership Summit will address many lingering questions. We will soon know how serious the authorities are about releasing jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko; how likely Ukraine is to cooperate...

Going Into Extractivism to Get Out From Extractivism
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Sep 2013

Executive SummaryEcuadorians do not understand why President Correa is enduring the evident political cost of pushing for Legislative approval to exploit the ITT camps. The $2.5b per year in revenues for around 20 years, seem insufficient to achieve the economic transformation the government link...

Import Uptick
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 25 Sep 2013

The statistics bureau reported today an 8.7% increase in July imports due largely to a 30% gain in imports of electronics materials.  This supports feedback we received earlier from local electronics makers who reported seeing improving export sales.  July total import growth is the highest so fa...

Is it Really Over?
INDONESIA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Calming good news in the media seems to have quelled late-August/mid-September financial jitters in the Indonesian financial market; at least, the long lines in front of the exchange houses have dwindled. We now see light at the end of the tunnel. The first bit of good new...

Holes in Pemex Fiscal Reform
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary In recent days several of the tax ideas contained in the fiscal reform proposals made by President Enrique Peña Nieto have become the focus of considerable discussion and criticism. These include the application of the VAT tax to school tuitions, an idea the Chamber of Deputies ...

Fiscal Policy Showdown
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary Key elements in President Enrique Peña’s fiscal reform proposals have run up against considerable resistance in the two weeks since they were unveiled. Powerful business leaders and associations were quick to criticize the initiative for not going as far as they had expected, es...

Weather and Economy Heat Up
CHINA · Report · 24 Sep 2013

Executive Summary China was hit by heat waves in July and August – with the weather in August even hotter, in many regions, than in July. Electricity generation rose 13.4% y/y over the month, its fastest climb in years. The economy seems to be heating up too. Industrial output growth also r...

Political Insights: Week of September 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2013

The week ahead: Finance Minister Guido Mantega discusses investment opportunities in Brazil with investors in New York.The government is concerned about the attractiveness of the concessions programmed for the coming months. In the US, Dilma speaks at the UN General Assembly.This is a decisive we...

Interpreting the Monetary Policy Announcement
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2013

In his maiden monetary policy announcement RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tried to unveil a complicated mix of easing and tightening. He raised the policy “repo” rate to bring down inflationary expectations, while at the same time reducing the MSF rate, the effective rate at which banks borrow, whic...

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