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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Elevation of the Selic Rate: What Will Be the Next Step?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jan 2014

There are two interpretations for the 50-basis-point hike in the SELIC rate at the last COPOM meeting. The first is that it was a reaction to the “surprisingly high” inflation in December, to be followed by slight deceleration in January, strengthening the expectation of just one more increase, o...

Return to orthodoxy?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Jan 2014

Today's market developments, with the TL/$ heading to just below 2.4 despite an additional tightening day, prompted the Bank to call an extraordinary meeting. The meeting will be held tomorrow night, and the decision will be announced at 12 a.m. midnight local time. Before that, we have the Infla...

Starting Off Right
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Jan 2014

Executive Summary This year kicked off on an optimistic note. The Fed’s decision to begin tapering ended uncertainties, and reignited global investment in emerging markets countries. Both the Indonesian stock market index and the rupiah gained in the first few weeks of the year. The new opt...

Weekly Tracker: January 26-February 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Erdogan calling Pastor Gulen a “false prophet” suggests that there shall be no peace between AKP and the Gulen Movement until after the local elections at the earliest. Get ready for a very rocky ride by reading our predictions on upcoming events. AKP threatened to unveil damagi...

Waiting For The Second Shoe
VENEZUELA · Report · 26 Jan 2014

Measures announced so far, in our view, set the stage for a more meaningful bolivar devaluation shortly. This is just the beginning. So far the government has sharpened the tools for forex and price controls, raised the cost and reduced the amount of dollars for personal expenses abroad, and clos...

Devilish tricks: Yanukovitch ‘buys’ opposition with posts at the Cabinet
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Jan 2014

Viktor Yanukovitch proposed for opposition leaders posts at the Cabinet. Arseniy Yatsenyuk was suggested to become prime-minister and Vitaliy Klitchko – vice-prime minister. From the first glance the step might look like a search for compromise with the protesters. Indeed dismissal of the Cabinet...

Peg Ain’t Crawling No More
ARGENTINA · Report · 24 Jan 2014

Two days ago, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) surprised markets by failing to intervene as expected; hence letting the official USDARS rise from 6.93 to 7.14. Yesterday, the spot rate closed at 7.75 after reaching 8.3 in the intraday market, which forced the BCRA to intervene (it sold $180m ...

Negotiations failed. Party of war wins. Escalation is ahead.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Jan 2014

Today, Andrey Kluyev, the Head of National Security and Defense Council was appointed Head of President Office. Mr. Kluyev, according to media reports, is suspected to be the one who coordinated all crackdowns and provocations against protesters. After yesterdays’ fail of negotiations with Yanuko...

Turkey blind-sighted by Rojava Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jan 2014

Syria’s long-suffering Rojava Kurds declared “transitional democratic autonomy” after they have been denied a separate delegation to represent them at the Geneva Peace Conference. While this development is not going to be noticed by the media or markets now, it actually poses a much more signific...

Search for Revived Productivity Growth
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The World Bank published its Global Economic Prospects (GEP) report last Wednesday, in which it estimates Mexico GDP will expand 3.4% in 2014 and that part of the expansion will be facilitated by US growth. The report adds that the global economy continues with its gradual recov...

New Year’s Policy and Political Hurdles
MEXICO · Report · 22 Jan 2014

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This second part of our political perspectives report for 2014 will address two topics: the main challenges that the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto will face in matters that are a source of social discontent (the poor state of the economy and public security), an...

Dominican Rep: surprising figures of GDP growht for 2013 (Q4 and Q1-Q4)
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 Jan 2014 · 2 responses

The Central Bank just released data of GDP growth for Q4 2013 and for the whole year. The figures are surprising and have been received with disbelief by many analysts. According to the Bank, in Q4 GDP grew at 7.2% compared to Q4 of 2012. As a result, GDP growth for 2013 was 4.1% compared to 2012...

Looking Ahead to the New Political Season
CHILE · Report · 21 Jan 2014

Summer politics These are the last days of the Chilean political season, before senior politicians and their families repair to the country or the beach for the entire month of February. Before leaving for the holidays, the center-left is busy with the appointment of the new cabinet; the center-r...

Peso In A Free Fall?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Jan 2014

The peso’s “free fall”, as one headline put it, has raised worries that the country’s external payments position, which has been a major source of resilience, may come under pressure as imports to fund reconstruction and other infrastructure needs increase this year. The latest balance of payment...

Reluctant Hiker?
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Jan 2014

The MPC did not change any of the rates today, but said that it would drive money market rates to 9% (from 7.75% currently) on additional monetary tightening (AMT) days. This, the Committee said, aims at aligning the inflation outlook with the medium term target. Our first impression is that this...

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